Preseason Rankings
Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#12
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#215
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.5% 3.6% 0.6%
#1 Seed 14.1% 14.4% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 28.0% 28.5% 7.6%
Top 4 Seed 49.9% 50.6% 19.3%
Top 6 Seed 65.3% 66.1% 31.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.5% 84.1% 57.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.5% 81.2% 53.0%
Average Seed 4.3 4.3 6.2
.500 or above 88.2% 88.9% 61.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 83.0% 61.0%
Conference Champion 21.6% 22.0% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.1% 5.1%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 6.1%
First Round82.0% 82.6% 54.3%
Second Round65.3% 66.0% 34.7%
Sweet Sixteen39.8% 40.3% 19.2%
Elite Eight21.5% 21.8% 9.6%
Final Four11.2% 11.4% 3.3%
Championship Game5.6% 5.8% 0.8%
National Champion2.7% 2.7% 0.3%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 8
Quad 26 - 215 - 10
Quad 34 - 019 - 10
Quad 43 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-61 98%    
  Nov 08, 2024 174   Northern Kentucky W 81-62 96%    
  Nov 11, 2024 113   Yale W 76-61 91%    
  Nov 15, 2024 5   Alabama W 81-80 50%    
  Nov 19, 2024 26   @ Marquette W 74-73 50%    
  Nov 23, 2024 194   Marshall W 85-65 96%    
  Nov 28, 2024 49   North Carolina St. W 76-70 69%    
  Dec 05, 2024 67   @ Penn St. W 76-72 64%    
  Dec 08, 2024 38   Maryland W 71-64 73%    
  Dec 14, 2024 19   Texas A&M W 72-70 59%    
  Dec 21, 2024 10   Auburn L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 29, 2024 168   Toledo W 85-67 94%    
  Jan 02, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 05, 2025 60   Northwestern W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 09, 2025 29   @ Rutgers W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 12, 2025 51   Nebraska W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 15, 2025 62   @ Washington W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 34   @ Oregon W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 21, 2025 31   Ohio St. W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 24, 2025 30   Michigan W 76-69 71%    
  Jan 31, 2025 20   Indiana W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 04, 2025 45   @ Iowa W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 07, 2025 46   USC W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 11, 2025 30   @ Michigan W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 44   Wisconsin W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 18, 2025 24   @ Michigan St. L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 20   @ Indiana L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 28, 2025 23   UCLA W 70-64 69%    
  Mar 04, 2025 29   Rutgers W 73-66 70%    
  Mar 07, 2025 22   @ Illinois L 75-76 49%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.1 5.6 4.3 2.4 0.7 21.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.3 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.2 4.4 5.7 7.6 8.8 10.3 11.0 10.9 10.5 9.1 6.8 4.5 2.4 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 99.7% 2.4    2.3 0.1
18-2 95.7% 4.3    3.9 0.5 0.0
17-3 82.0% 5.6    3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 56.1% 5.1    2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 26.3% 2.8    0.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 14.4 5.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 58.9% 41.1% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.4% 100.0% 51.4% 48.6% 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.5% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.4 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.8% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 1.6 3.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.1% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 2.1 2.8 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.5% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.8 1.5 3.4 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.9% 99.9% 16.8% 83.1% 3.7 0.5 1.8 3.1 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.0% 99.6% 11.6% 88.1% 4.7 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 10.3% 98.2% 6.7% 91.5% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.0%
11-9 8.8% 91.4% 4.4% 87.0% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.8 91.0%
10-10 7.6% 76.4% 2.2% 74.2% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 75.9%
9-11 5.7% 48.1% 1.2% 46.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.0 47.5%
8-12 4.4% 20.4% 0.6% 19.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 19.9%
7-13 3.2% 3.4% 0.1% 3.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.4%
6-14 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.5%
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 83.5% 15.5% 68.0% 4.3 14.1 13.9 11.9 10.0 8.4 7.0 5.2 3.8 3.0 2.6 2.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 16.5 80.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0