IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.1	#162
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#306
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.3	#134

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#207

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.9%	20.7%	10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.5	12.8	13.7

.500 or above	66.9%	88.1%	64.2%
.500 or above in Conference	73.5%	86.5%	71.8%
Conference Champion	14.1%	24.2%	12.8%
Last Place in Conference	2.3%	0.6%	2.5%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	11.8%	20.5%	10.7%
Second Round	1.7%	4.2%	1.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	1.1%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 11.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 9
Quad 4	12 - 4	17 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2024	47	@ San Diego St.	L	60-73	11%
Nov 09, 2024	217	Pepperdine	W	73-67	71%
Nov 12, 2024	300	Sacramento St.	W	70-60	83%
Nov 16, 2024	127	Seattle	W	68-67	53%
Nov 21, 2024	173	La Salle	W	70-69	52%
Dec 05, 2024	167	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	70-73	40%
Dec 07, 2024	278	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	70-61	77%
Dec 15, 2024	279	@ Idaho	W	69-66	60%
Dec 17, 2024	81	@ Utah St.	L	67-77	19%
Dec 21, 2024	282	@ San Diego	W	74-71	60%
Jan 04, 2025	244	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	68-67	53%
Jan 09, 2025	345	Cal Poly	W	74-59	90%
Jan 11, 2025	103	UC Irvine	L	69-71	43%
Jan 16, 2025	245	@ Long Beach St.	W	75-74	54%
Jan 18, 2025	183	@ UC Riverside	L	68-70	43%
Jan 23, 2025	167	UC Santa Barbara	W	73-70	60%
Jan 25, 2025	239	Cal St. Northridge	W	78-71	72%
Jan 31, 2025	192	@ Hawaii	L	67-68	45%
Feb 06, 2025	183	UC Riverside	W	71-67	63%
Feb 08, 2025	103	@ UC Irvine	L	66-74	25%
Feb 13, 2025	278	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	67-64	59%
Feb 15, 2025	191	UC Davis	W	70-66	64%
Feb 20, 2025	345	@ Cal Poly	W	71-62	77%
Feb 22, 2025	192	Hawaii	W	70-65	65%
Feb 27, 2025	239	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	75-74	53%
Mar 01, 2025	244	Cal St. Fullerton	W	71-64	72%
Mar 06, 2025	245	Long Beach St.	W	78-71	72%
Mar 08, 2025	191	@ UC Davis	L	67-69	44%
Projected Record						16 - 12	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.9	2.4	3.4	3.5	2.4	1.1	0.3		14.1	1st
2nd												0.1	0.5	2.4	4.5	4.6	2.6	0.8	0.1				15.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.7	3.2	5.3	3.6	1.1	0.2	0.0					14.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.5	4.8	2.7	0.5	0.0							12.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	3.4	4.4	2.0	0.3	0.0								10.9	5th
6th								0.1	0.7	2.9	3.7	1.6	0.2	0.0									9.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.7	2.5	3.2	1.3	0.1											7.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.6	2.1	2.5	1.0	0.1	0.0											6.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	0.8	1.7	1.5	0.7	0.1													5.0	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0													3.2	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0															1.3	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.2	3.3	4.6	6.4	7.9	9.4	10.4	10.7	10.9	9.5	8.1	6.2	4.4	2.5	1.1	0.3			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
19-1	100.0%	1.1		1.0	0.0
18-2	95.1%	2.4		2.1	0.3
17-3	80.6%	3.5		2.7	0.8	0.0
16-4	55.8%	3.4		2.0	1.2	0.2
15-5	29.5%	2.4		0.9	1.1	0.4	0.0
14-6	9.1%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	14.1%	14.1		9.3	3.8	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.3%		63.8%	59.6%	4.2%	10.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.1		10.3%
19-1	1.1%		54.2%	53.0%	1.2%	11.6					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.5		2.5%
18-2	2.5%		47.9%	47.3%	0.6%	12.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0		1.3		1.2%
17-3	4.4%		39.2%	39.1%	0.1%	12.9										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.1		2.7		0.1%
16-4	6.2%		32.9%	32.9%	0.0%	13.3												0.0	0.4	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0	4.1		0.1%
15-5	8.1%		24.9%	24.9%		13.8												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.0	6.1
14-6	9.5%		16.7%	16.7%		14.1													0.1	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	7.9
13-7	10.9%		10.3%	10.3%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	9.8
12-8	10.7%		6.9%	6.9%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	9.9
11-9	10.4%		3.7%	3.7%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.0
10-10	9.4%		2.7%	2.7%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.2
9-11	7.9%		1.4%	1.4%		15.7																0.0	0.1	7.8
8-12	6.4%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	6.4
7-13	4.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.6
6-14	3.3%																							3.3
5-15	2.2%																							2.2
4-16	1.2%																							1.2
3-17	0.6%																							0.6
2-18	0.2%																							0.2
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	13.5					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	2.0	3.3	3.3	2.2	0.7	88.1		0.1%