Preseason Rankings
UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#95
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#310
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.1% 16.8% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.8% 8.2% 2.1%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 10.9
.500 or above 73.4% 75.4% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 69.2% 49.2%
Conference Champion 9.9% 10.4% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.1% 6.1%
First Four2.6% 2.8% 0.9%
First Round14.9% 15.5% 6.0%
Second Round6.6% 6.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 93.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 45 - 10
Quad 36 - 310 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 293   Alabama St. W 75-59 93%    
  Nov 09, 2024 42   Memphis L 73-75 44%    
  Nov 14, 2024 302   Nebraska Omaha W 77-61 93%    
  Nov 20, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 75-63 86%    
  Nov 23, 2024 161   New Mexico St. W 72-63 78%    
  Nov 28, 2024 33   Mississippi St. L 66-71 32%    
  Dec 07, 2024 13   @ Creighton L 64-76 16%    
  Dec 14, 2024 314   Pacific W 79-62 93%    
  Dec 17, 2024 59   @ Dayton L 63-69 30%    
  Dec 21, 2024 183   UC Riverside W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 28, 2024 250   Fresno St. W 73-60 87%    
  Dec 31, 2024 229   @ Air Force W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 07, 2025 63   @ Boise St. L 65-71 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 84   @ Colorado St. L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 14, 2025 81   Utah St. W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 18, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 62-69 28%    
  Jan 21, 2025 177   Wyoming W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 70   New Mexico W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 28, 2025 81   @ Utah St. L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 75   @ Nevada L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 04, 2025 63   Boise St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 229   Air Force W 70-58 84%    
  Feb 15, 2025 250   @ Fresno St. W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 84   Colorado St. W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. W 69-66 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 75   Nevada W 69-68 55%    
  Mar 04, 2025 47   San Diego St. L 65-66 47%    
  Mar 07, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 72-77 34%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.6 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 9.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.3 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.9 3.3 0.8 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 3.9 6.0 7.4 9.2 10.1 10.9 10.8 10.2 8.5 6.9 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 95.9% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 80.9% 2.5    1.9 0.6 0.0
16-4 54.4% 2.6    1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.2% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 6.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 64.4% 35.6% 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 96.6% 51.9% 44.7% 4.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.9%
18-2 1.6% 91.5% 39.1% 52.4% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 86.1%
17-3 3.1% 79.5% 34.7% 44.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 68.6%
16-4 4.8% 60.6% 26.2% 34.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.9 46.6%
15-5 6.9% 40.2% 19.3% 20.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.1 25.9%
14-6 8.5% 25.3% 15.3% 9.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.4 11.7%
13-7 10.2% 13.9% 10.2% 3.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.8 4.1%
12-8 10.8% 8.5% 7.3% 1.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8 1.2%
11-9 10.9% 5.2% 4.9% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.3%
10-10 10.1% 3.2% 3.2% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.1%
9-11 9.2% 1.5% 1.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
8-12 7.4% 1.3% 1.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
7-13 6.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
6-14 3.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-15 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-16 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.1% 9.0% 7.1% 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.4 4.8 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 83.9 7.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 76.9 23.1