Pre-tourney Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#44
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#45
Pace63.6#276
Improvement+0.1#165

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#53
First Shot+4.5#56
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#93
Layup/Dunks+3.5#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#94
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+1.9#72

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#48
First Shot+4.9#51
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#74
Layups/Dunks+1.5#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#102
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement-1.8#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 9.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% n/a n/a
First Round93.5% n/a n/a
Second Round41.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen8.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight2.5% n/a n/a
Final Four0.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 9 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 19   Arizona L 63-65 30%     0 - 1 +14.7 +0.0 +14.7
  Nov 15, 2016 4   Kentucky L 48-69 21%     0 - 2 -1.0 -17.3 +16.7
  Nov 18, 2016 344   Mississippi Valley W 100-53 99%     1 - 2 +27.9 +24.1 +7.9
  Nov 20, 2016 117   Florida Gulf Coast W 78-77 85%     2 - 2 +1.2 +7.5 -6.2
  Nov 23, 2016 89   St. John's W 73-62 73%     3 - 2 +16.0 +0.4 +15.4
  Nov 24, 2016 15   Baylor L 58-73 27%     3 - 3 +2.6 -1.2 +2.7
  Nov 25, 2016 9   Wichita St. W 77-72 25%     4 - 3 +23.6 +16.6 +7.2
  Nov 29, 2016 10   @ Duke L 69-78 18%     4 - 4 +11.9 +3.5 +8.4
  Dec 03, 2016 234   Oral Roberts W 80-76 95%     5 - 4 -3.1 +2.4 -5.5
  Dec 06, 2016 282   Youngstown St. W 77-57 97%     6 - 4 +9.8 +0.6 +10.0
  Dec 10, 2016 259   Tennessee Tech W 71-63 95%     7 - 4 -0.1 +4.3 -3.5
  Dec 18, 2016 168   Northeastern L 73-81 90%     7 - 5 -10.6 -2.3 -8.3
  Dec 21, 2016 108   Oakland W 77-65 84%     8 - 5 +12.9 +9.6 +3.6
  Dec 27, 2016 32   @ Minnesota W 75-74 OT 36%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +16.2 +8.5 +7.7
  Dec 30, 2016 40   Northwestern W 61-52 59%     10 - 5 2 - 0 +17.9 +4.4 +15.0
  Jan 04, 2017 116   Rutgers W 93-65 85%     11 - 5 3 - 0 +28.2 +28.4 +1.3
  Jan 07, 2017 79   Penn St. L 63-72 69%     11 - 6 3 - 1 -2.7 -5.2 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2017 32   Minnesota W 65-47 55%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +28.1 +4.4 +24.9
  Jan 15, 2017 71   @ Ohio St. L 67-72 54%     12 - 7 4 - 2 +5.3 +3.8 +1.1
  Jan 21, 2017 38   @ Indiana L 75-82 39%     12 - 8 4 - 3 +7.2 +14.3 -7.9
  Jan 24, 2017 16   Purdue L 73-84 36%     12 - 9 4 - 4 +4.1 +13.9 -10.7
  Jan 29, 2017 21   Michigan W 70-62 40%     13 - 9 5 - 4 +21.9 +10.9 +12.2
  Feb 02, 2017 99   @ Nebraska W 72-61 66%     14 - 9 6 - 4 +18.0 +13.9 +5.5
  Feb 07, 2017 21   @ Michigan L 57-86 23%     14 - 10 6 - 5 -10.1 -4.4 -8.8
  Feb 11, 2017 65   Iowa W 77-66 70%     15 - 10 7 - 5 +16.9 +6.9 +10.2
  Feb 14, 2017 71   Ohio St. W 74-66 72%     16 - 10 8 - 5 +13.3 +7.3 +6.5
  Feb 18, 2017 16   @ Purdue L 63-80 20%     16 - 11 8 - 6 +3.1 +0.7 +2.4
  Feb 23, 2017 99   Nebraska W 88-72 81%     17 - 11 9 - 6 +17.9 +15.7 +1.8
  Feb 26, 2017 23   Wisconsin W 84-74 43%     18 - 11 10 - 6 +23.2 +22.5 +1.0
  Mar 01, 2017 64   @ Illinois L 70-73 51%     18 - 12 10 - 7 +8.0 +9.5 -1.7
  Mar 04, 2017 43   @ Maryland L 60-63 40%     18 - 13 10 - 8 +10.9 +4.9 +5.4
  Mar 09, 2017 79   Penn St. W 78-51 69%     19 - 13 +33.3 +16.9 +18.3
  Mar 10, 2017 32   Minnesota L 58-63 45%     19 - 14 +7.6 +4.9 +1.9
Projected Record 19.0 - 14.0 10.0 - 8.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 94.0% 94.0% 9.0 0.1 3.3 24.4 35.9 25.8 4.4 0.0 6.0 94.0%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.0% 0.0% 94.0% 9.0 0.1 3.3 24.4 35.9 25.8 4.4 0.0 6.0 94.0%