Preseason Rankings
Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#67
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#313
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 2.6% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 4.3% 2.6% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.7% 36.8% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.6% 13.3% 2.8%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 12.1
.500 or above 91.5% 92.6% 73.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 89.2% 76.3%
Conference Champion 35.0% 36.1% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 3.7%
First Four4.1% 4.3% 1.6%
First Round33.8% 34.8% 16.4%
Second Round13.5% 14.0% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 5.3% 1.8%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 0.80.2 - 0.8
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.00.6 - 1.8
Quad 22.4 - 2.73.0 - 4.5
Quad 38.0 - 3.711.1 - 8.2
Quad 49.7 - 1.120.8 - 9.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 279   UMKC W 76-62 95%    
  Nov 09, 2018 123   Furman W 72-67 76%    
  Nov 14, 2018 268   Niagara W 82-68 94%    
  Nov 16, 2018 296   Grambling St. W 78-63 95%    
  Nov 19, 2018 130   Richmond W 72-67 69%    
  Nov 21, 2018 78   Boston College W 71-70 54%    
  Nov 27, 2018 7   Nevada L 69-78 31%    
  Dec 01, 2018 181   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-66 70%    
  Dec 05, 2018 111   Ball St. W 72-68 74%    
  Dec 08, 2018 32   Maryland L 66-69 38%    
  Dec 16, 2018 277   Norfolk St. W 76-62 93%    
  Dec 22, 2018 106   @ Saint Joseph's W 72-68 54%    
  Jan 02, 2019 161   Indiana St. W 73-65 81%    
  Jan 05, 2019 202   @ Drake W 74-64 72%    
  Jan 08, 2019 196   @ Evansville W 67-57 72%    
  Jan 12, 2019 75   Illinois St. W 71-70 65%    
  Jan 15, 2019 120   Valparaiso W 71-66 73%    
  Jan 19, 2019 161   @ Indiana St. W 73-65 66%    
  Jan 23, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. W 70-61 70%    
  Jan 27, 2019 104   Southern Illinois W 69-65 71%    
  Jan 30, 2019 116   Northern Iowa W 64-60 74%    
  Feb 02, 2019 75   @ Illinois St. W 71-70 43%    
  Feb 05, 2019 202   Drake W 74-64 86%    
  Feb 10, 2019 120   @ Valparaiso W 71-66 56%    
  Feb 13, 2019 117   @ Bradley W 68-63 55%    
  Feb 17, 2019 190   Missouri St. W 70-61 84%    
  Feb 20, 2019 196   Evansville W 67-57 86%    
  Feb 24, 2019 104   @ Southern Illinois W 69-65 53%    
  Feb 27, 2019 116   @ Northern Iowa W 64-60 55%    
  Mar 02, 2019 117   Bradley W 68-63 73%    
Projected Record 20.8 - 9.2 12.3 - 5.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 6.8 9.1 8.1 4.9 1.7 35.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.0 7.0 5.0 2.1 0.2 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 4.9 5.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 3.8 1.1 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.3 8.2 10.9 11.8 13.0 12.2 11.1 8.2 4.9 1.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 4.9    4.9 0.1
16-2 97.8% 8.1    7.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 81.6% 9.1    7.0 2.0 0.1
14-4 55.4% 6.8    3.7 2.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 27.9% 3.6    1.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.0% 35.0 25.9 7.5 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 98.1% 73.4% 24.7% 4.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.9%
17-1 4.9% 91.8% 60.3% 31.5% 7.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 79.5%
16-2 8.2% 81.9% 50.1% 31.8% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.5 63.8%
15-3 11.1% 62.2% 43.2% 19.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.2 33.5%
14-4 12.2% 45.0% 32.6% 12.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.7 18.5%
13-5 13.0% 33.4% 27.0% 6.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 8.7 8.7%
12-6 11.8% 20.6% 19.3% 1.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.4 1.6%
11-7 10.9% 14.6% 14.1% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.3 0.6%
10-8 8.2% 10.6% 10.4% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.3 0.2%
9-9 6.3% 10.2% 10.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.7
8-10 4.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.4
7-11 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.1
6-12 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 35.7% 26.4% 9.3% 10.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 3.0 6.9 8.3 4.6 2.4 0.9 0.4 64.3 12.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.0 42.4 36.8 13.6 1.6 5.6