Pre-tourney Rankings
Missouri Valley
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
20 Loyola Chicago 100.0%   7   22 - 4 16 - 2 22 - 4 16 - 2 +14.5      +4.5 73 +10.0 3 60.9 334 +13.5 30 +14.7 1
65 Drake 64.7%   12   23 - 4 15 - 3 23 - 4 15 - 3 +8.5      +7.6 27 +0.9 145 66.3 247 +12.8 36 +12.3 2
91 Missouri St. 0.0%   15 - 7 12 - 6 15 - 7 12 - 6 +5.8      +3.7 90 +2.1 111 70.2 148 +5.9 96 +6.0 3
118 Indiana St. 0.0%   14 - 10 11 - 7 14 - 10 11 - 7 +3.4      0.0 174 +3.4 80 66.4 243 +5.1 105 +5.1 4
150 Bradley 0.0%   10 - 16 6 - 12 10 - 16 6 - 12 +0.9      +1.1 138 -0.2 179 65.0 275 -0.9 179 -1.9 8
156 Northern Iowa 0.0%   8 - 15 7 - 11 9 - 16 8 - 12 +0.5      +0.8 151 -0.2 181 70.6 140 -1.0 182 -0.9 7
187 Valparaiso 0.0%   8 - 18 7 - 11 8 - 18 7 - 11 -1.7      -3.4 258 +1.7 120 67.2 224 -2.5 199 -0.1 5
188 Southern Illinois 0.0%   11 - 14 5 - 13 11 - 14 5 - 13 -1.7      -1.5 216 -0.2 180 64.8 281 -0.5 170 -4.5 9
201 Evansville 0.0%   9 - 16 7 - 11 10 - 17 8 - 12 -2.9      +2.0 118 -4.9 298 57.9 346 -3.2 211 -0.6 6
202 Illinois St. 0.0%   6 - 18 4 - 14 6 - 18 4 - 14 -2.9      -2.7 244 -0.3 183 70.9 128 -5.4 236 -5.4 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 1.0 100.0
Drake 2.0 100.0
Missouri St. 3.0 100.0
Indiana St. 4.0 100.0
Bradley 8.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 5.1 85.4 14.6
Valparaiso 6.5 53.3 46.7
Southern Illinois 9.0 100.0
Evansville 5.4 61.3 38.7
Illinois St. 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 16 - 2 100.0
Drake 15 - 3 100.0
Missouri St. 12 - 6 100.0
Indiana St. 11 - 7 100.0
Bradley 6 - 12 100.0
Northern Iowa 8 - 10 14.6 46.7 38.7
Valparaiso 7 - 11 100.0
Southern Illinois 5 - 13 100.0
Evansville 8 - 10 38.7 46.7 14.6
Illinois St. 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 100.0% 100.0
Drake
Missouri St.
Indiana St.
Bradley
Northern Iowa
Valparaiso
Southern Illinois
Evansville
Illinois St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7   0.0 0.9 3.7 13.8 24.6 25.8 19.1 10.4 1.6 0.0
Drake 64.7% 0.0% 64.7% 12   0.1 2.3 17.0 36.6 8.6 0.0 35.3 64.7%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Loyola Chicago 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 64.7% 26.7% 11.5% 4.1% 1.4% 0.3%
Drake 64.7% 23.6% 51.6% 15.1% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 35.3 64.7
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 48.4 51.6
2nd Round 70.4% 0.8 29.7 60.9 9.4
Sweet Sixteen 29.7% 0.3 70.3 28.7 1.1
Elite Eight 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.3 0.1
Final Four 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3 0.0
Final Game 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3