IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.9	#315
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.7	#183
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.7	#300

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.2	#313

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.2%	2.0%	0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.7	15.8

.500 or above	6.9%	13.1%	3.5%
.500 or above in Conference	26.5%	35.7%	21.6%
Conference Champion	0.7%	1.5%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	31.6%	22.7%	36.4%

First Four	0.9%	1.3%	0.6%
First Round	0.9%	1.5%	0.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Neutral) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 8	2 - 14
Quad 4	7 - 8	8 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	263	Portland	L	70-74	35%
Nov 27, 2020	322	Idaho	W	73-72	53%
Nov 27, 2020	286	Seattle	L	73-76	40%
Dec 04, 2020	91	@ San Francisco	L	63-82	5%
Dec 07, 2020	31	@ Stanford	L	58-83	1%
Dec 12, 2020	150	@ Fresno St.	L	61-75	11%
Dec 16, 2020	159	San Diego	L	69-76	27%
Dec 19, 2020	154	@ Loyola Marymount	L	61-74	12%
Dec 22, 2020	57	@ USC	L	62-84	3%
Dec 27, 2020	200	@ Hawaii	L	67-77	18%
Dec 28, 2020	200	@ Hawaii	L	67-77	18%
Jan 01, 2021	232	UC San Diego	L	63-65	41%
Jan 02, 2021	232	UC San Diego	L	63-65	41%
Jan 08, 2021	214	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	63-72	21%
Jan 09, 2021	214	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	63-72	21%
Jan 15, 2021	208	UC Riverside	L	63-67	38%
Jan 16, 2021	208	UC Riverside	L	63-67	37%
Jan 22, 2021	119	@ UC Irvine	L	63-79	8%
Jan 23, 2021	119	@ UC Irvine	L	63-79	9%
Jan 29, 2021	308	Cal St. Northridge	W	79-77	56%
Jan 30, 2021	308	Cal St. Northridge	W	79-77	56%
Feb 12, 2021	298	Cal St. Fullerton	W	72-71	53%
Feb 13, 2021	298	Cal St. Fullerton	W	72-71	52%
Feb 19, 2021	228	@ Long Beach St.	L	71-80	24%
Feb 20, 2021	228	@ Long Beach St.	L	71-80	24%
Feb 26, 2021	204	UC Davis	L	70-74	37%
Feb 27, 2021	204	UC Davis	L	70-74	38%
Mar 05, 2021	141	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	62-76	12%
Mar 06, 2021	141	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	62-76	12%
Projected Record						8 - 21	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.7	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0			3.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.4	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.0					5.1	4th
5th								0.4	2.1	3.4	1.4	0.1	0.0						7.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	2.8	4.4	1.5	0.2	0.0							9.5	6th
7th					0.1	1.0	4.1	5.1	2.0	0.2	0.0								12.5	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	2.2	5.7	5.6	2.4	0.2										16.4	8th
9th		0.1	1.3	4.3	7.3	5.7	2.1	0.2											20.8	9th
10th	1.3	4.1	6.3	6.0	3.5	0.9	0.1												22.2	10th

Total	1.3	4.2	7.5	10.5	13.0	13.4	12.5	10.9	9.0	6.7	4.6	2.8	1.9	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	81.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-1	93.4%	0.1		0.1	0.0
14-2	47.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
13-3	24.4%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-4	5.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-5	0.6%	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.7%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%		2.3%	2.3%		12.0													0.0					0.0
15-1	0.1%		30.3%	30.3%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
14-2	0.4%		11.9%	11.9%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4
13-3	0.9%		11.9%	11.9%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8
12-4	1.9%		11.1%	11.1%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.2	1.7
11-5	2.8%		3.9%	3.9%		15.8														0.0	0.0		0.1	2.7
10-6	4.6%		3.8%	3.8%		15.9																0.0	0.1	4.4
9-7	6.7%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.1	6.5
8-8	9.0%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.2	8.8
7-9	10.9%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.8
6-10	12.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	12.5
5-11	13.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	13.4
4-12	13.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	13.0
3-13	10.5%																							10.5
2-14	7.5%																							7.5
1-15	4.2%																							4.2
0-16	1.3%																							1.3

Total	100%		1.2%	1.2%	0.0%	15.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.1	98.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%