Preseason Rankings
Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#16
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.1#86
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.5%
#1 Seed 8.8% 8.9% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 18.1% 18.3% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 35.1% 35.5% 8.5%
Top 6 Seed 50.1% 50.7% 16.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.2% 77.0% 37.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.9% 73.7% 33.7%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 6.9
.500 or above 86.6% 87.2% 53.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 82.0% 56.2%
Conference Champion 16.6% 16.8% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.0% 3.9%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 3.4%
First Round74.7% 75.4% 36.2%
Second Round55.7% 56.2% 25.2%
Sweet Sixteen31.4% 31.8% 13.1%
Elite Eight16.5% 16.8% 4.1%
Final Four8.7% 8.8% 2.1%
Championship Game4.1% 4.1% 1.0%
National Champion2.2% 2.2% 1.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 34 - 116 - 9
Quad 42 - 018 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 247   Gardner-Webb W 83-60 98%    
  Dec 02, 2020 218   North Florida W 90-69 97%    
  Dec 09, 2020 24   Indiana W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 12, 2020 22   Florida W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 15, 2020 63   Georgia Tech W 78-70 77%    
  Dec 19, 2020 111   Central Florida W 79-66 88%    
  Dec 29, 2020 49   @ Clemson W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 02, 2021 5   Duke W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 05, 2021 35   @ Syracuse W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 09, 2021 87   @ Pittsburgh W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 12, 2021 48   North Carolina St. W 81-73 73%    
  Jan 16, 2021 23   North Carolina W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 18, 2021 26   @ Louisville L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 23, 2021 49   Clemson W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 26, 2021 43   Miami (FL) W 79-72 71%    
  Jan 30, 2021 63   @ Georgia Tech W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 02, 2021 101   @ Boston College W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 09, 2021 56   @ Virginia Tech W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 13, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 84-71 86%    
  Feb 15, 2021 6   Virginia W 61-60 53%    
  Feb 20, 2021 56   Virginia Tech W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 23, 2021 43   @ Miami (FL) W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 27, 2021 23   @ North Carolina L 77-79 42%    
  Mar 03, 2021 101   Boston College W 82-69 85%    
  Mar 06, 2021 70   @ Notre Dame W 77-74 61%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 4.5 3.9 2.0 0.6 16.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.7 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.6 9.4 10.5 10.7 11.1 10.1 8.5 6.4 4.4 2.1 0.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 99.1% 2.0    1.9 0.1
18-2 88.2% 3.9    3.2 0.7 0.0
17-3 70.2% 4.5    2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 39.0% 3.3    1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.0% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 10.5 4.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 62.3% 37.7% 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.1% 100.0% 46.3% 53.7% 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.4% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 1.5 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.4% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 2.0 2.3 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.5% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.8 1.2 2.6 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.1% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.8 0.4 1.5 2.8 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.1% 99.6% 14.2% 85.4% 5.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 10.7% 98.7% 8.7% 89.9% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.5%
12-8 10.5% 94.1% 6.2% 87.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 93.7%
11-9 9.4% 77.9% 2.8% 75.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 77.3%
10-10 7.6% 48.2% 2.6% 45.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.9 46.9%
9-11 5.9% 20.3% 0.8% 19.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.7 19.6%
8-12 4.6% 6.2% 0.2% 6.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3 6.0%
7-13 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.7%
6-14 2.0% 2.0
5-15 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 76.2% 12.3% 63.9% 5.3 8.8 9.3 9.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 6.6 5.7 4.3 3.5 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.8 72.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 83.0 17.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 81.4 18.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0