IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.9	#48
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.7	#100
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+6.1	#37

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.9	#72

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	3.2%	3.3%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	8.8%	9.0%	1.6%
Top 6 Seed	16.8%	17.2%	4.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	42.9%	43.8%	17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	40.6%	41.5%	15.6%
Average Seed	7.3	7.3	8.4

.500 or above	66.8%	67.9%	35.4%
.500 or above in Conference	52.6%	53.3%	32.1%
Conference Champion	4.4%	4.6%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	5.4%	5.2%	10.9%

First Four	3.7%	3.7%	3.2%
First Round	41.1%	42.1%	15.2%
Second Round	24.1%	24.6%	7.8%
Sweet Sixteen	10.2%	10.5%	3.2%
Elite Eight	4.5%	4.6%	0.9%
Final Four	1.8%	1.9%	0.3%
Championship Game	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%
National Champion	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 6	2 - 6
Quad 1b	2 - 3	4 - 9
Quad 2	4 - 3	8 - 12
Quad 3	4 - 1	11 - 13
Quad 4	5 - 0	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	280	Charleston Southern	W	83-63	97%
Nov 27, 2020	218	North Florida	W	89-72	94%
Nov 30, 2020	254	William & Mary	W	85-66	96%
Dec 05, 2020	34	Connecticut	L	75-76	45%
Dec 09, 2020	19	@ Michigan	L	72-79	26%
Dec 12, 2020	191	Florida Atlantic	W	81-66	91%
Dec 16, 2020	26	@ Louisville	L	71-77	29%
Dec 19, 2020	258	Campbell	W	81-62	95%
Dec 22, 2020	23	North Carolina	L	78-79	47%
Dec 29, 2020	101	Boston College	W	80-72	76%
Jan 05, 2021	49	@ Clemson	L	69-72	40%
Jan 09, 2021	43	Miami (FL)	W	77-75	57%
Jan 12, 2021	16	@ Florida St.	L	73-81	27%
Jan 16, 2021	63	Georgia Tech	W	77-73	63%
Jan 20, 2021	6	@ Virginia	L	56-66	21%
Jan 23, 2021	23	@ North Carolina	L	75-82	29%
Jan 26, 2021	103	Wake Forest	W	82-74	76%
Jan 31, 2021	35	@ Syracuse	L	74-78	36%
Feb 02, 2021	6	Virginia	L	59-63	38%
Feb 06, 2021	101	@ Boston College	W	77-75	57%
Feb 09, 2021	35	Syracuse	W	77-75	55%
Feb 13, 2021	5	Duke	L	78-82	37%
Feb 16, 2021	87	@ Pittsburgh	W	71-70	52%
Feb 20, 2021	103	@ Wake Forest	W	79-77	57%
Feb 28, 2021	87	Pittsburgh	W	74-67	71%
Mar 02, 2021	70	@ Notre Dame	L	76-77	46%
Mar 05, 2021	56	Virginia Tech	W	72-69	61%
Projected Record						15 - 12	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.3	0.8	1.1	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.0		4.4	1st
2nd													0.1	0.3	1.4	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.0				5.2	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.4	1.9	2.3	1.3	0.3	0.0					6.2	3rd
4th											0.0	0.5	2.2	3.1	1.7	0.2	0.0						7.8	4th
5th										0.0	0.2	2.1	3.5	1.8	0.3	0.0							7.9	5th
6th										0.2	1.8	3.8	2.2	0.4	0.0								8.3	6th
7th								0.0	0.1	1.2	4.0	3.1	0.5	0.0									8.8	7th
8th								0.1	0.6	3.3	3.2	0.8	0.0										8.0	8th
9th							0.0	0.5	2.7	3.6	1.0	0.1											7.9	9th
10th						0.0	0.3	1.9	3.7	1.7	0.1												7.8	10th
11th						0.2	1.6	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.0												7.3	11th
12th					0.2	1.2	2.6	2.3	0.5	0.0													6.8	12th
13th				0.1	0.9	2.1	2.0	0.6	0.1														5.7	13th
14th		0.0	0.1	0.9	1.8	1.4	0.5	0.0															4.7	14th
15th	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0															3.1	15th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.9	3.5	4.9	7.0	8.7	9.7	10.3	10.5	10.3	8.9	7.4	5.9	4.2	2.6	1.6	0.8	0.3	0.0		Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3
18-2	94.6%	0.7		0.6	0.1
17-3	74.7%	1.2		0.8	0.4	0.1
16-4	43.9%	1.1		0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
15-5	18.5%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
14-6	4.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	4.4%	4.4		2.4	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		100.0%	70.0%	30.0%	1.2		0.0	0.0																	100.0%
19-1	0.3%		100.0%	40.4%	59.6%	1.4		0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0															100.0%
18-2	0.8%		100.0%	26.4%	73.6%	1.8		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0															100.0%
17-3	1.6%		100.0%	27.2%	72.8%	2.5		0.3	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0													100.0%
16-4	2.6%		100.0%	18.9%	81.1%	3.4		0.2	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0											100.0%
15-5	4.2%		100.0%	15.4%	84.6%	4.5		0.0	0.4	0.8	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0										100.0%
14-6	5.9%		99.1%	10.6%	88.5%	5.8		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.2	1.3	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.1		99.0%
13-7	7.4%		96.4%	6.7%	89.7%	7.2			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.2	1.5	1.6	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.1					0.3		96.2%
12-8	8.9%		86.6%	4.1%	82.5%	8.5				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.1	1.7	1.5	1.2	0.8	0.4	0.0				1.2		86.0%
11-9	10.3%		67.5%	1.4%	66.1%	9.6					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.3	1.5	1.3	0.8	0.2				3.4		67.0%
10-10	10.5%		38.5%	1.6%	36.9%	10.4						0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.9	1.0	0.2	0.0			6.4		37.5%
9-11	10.3%		13.4%	1.1%	12.4%	11.4								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.0			8.9		12.5%
8-12	9.7%		2.0%	0.2%	1.7%	11.7									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			9.5		1.7%
7-13	8.7%		0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	12.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		8.6		0.2%
6-14	7.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	13.0													0.0		0.0			7.0		0.0%
5-15	4.9%																							4.9
4-16	3.5%																							3.5
3-17	1.9%																							1.9
2-18	1.0%																							1.0
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		42.9%	3.9%	39.0%	7.3		1.0	2.1	2.7	2.9	3.8	4.3	4.5	5.5	4.6	4.2	3.7	3.0	0.6	0.1	0.0		57.1		40.6%