IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Ohio St.
Big Ten
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+14.3	#17
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.9	#280
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+7.4	#19

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.9	#21

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	1.7%	1.8%	0.1%
#1 Seed	7.0%	7.2%	1.0%
Top 2 Seed	14.6%	15.0%	3.1%
Top 4 Seed	31.6%	32.4%	9.8%
Top 6 Seed	47.3%	48.3%	20.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	70.8%	71.9%	42.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	67.7%	68.8%	39.0%
Average Seed	5.4	5.3	7.0

.500 or above	81.2%	82.3%	51.7%
.500 or above in Conference	70.2%	71.1%	46.8%
Conference Champion	12.3%	12.6%	4.0%
Last Place in Conference	2.4%	2.2%	6.1%

First Four	3.5%	3.5%	4.3%
First Round	69.2%	70.3%	40.4%
Second Round	51.1%	52.0%	25.8%
Sweet Sixteen	29.2%	29.9%	11.9%
Elite Eight	15.4%	15.8%	5.3%
Final Four	7.9%	8.2%	2.1%
Championship Game	3.9%	4.0%	0.7%
National Champion	2.0%	2.1%	0.5%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 6	3 - 6
Quad 1b	3 - 2	7 - 9
Quad 2	5 - 2	11 - 10
Quad 3	3 - 0	14 - 10
Quad 4	4 - 0	18 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	188	Illinois St.	W	79-60	96%
Nov 29, 2020	279	Umass Lowell	W	87-63	99%
Dec 02, 2020	296	Morehead St.	W	82-57	99%
Dec 05, 2020	343	Alabama A&M	W	84-50	99.9%
Dec 08, 2020	70	@ Notre Dame	W	73-70	61%
Dec 16, 2020	28	@ Purdue	L	65-66	47%
Dec 19, 2020	23	North Carolina	W	74-73	52%
Dec 23, 2020	33	Rutgers	W	71-65	69%
Dec 26, 2020	80	@ Northwestern	W	70-66	65%
Dec 30, 2020	113	Nebraska	W	82-69	87%
Jan 03, 2021	37	@ Minnesota	W	69-68	51%
Jan 06, 2021	62	Penn St.	W	77-69	76%
Jan 09, 2021	33	@ Rutgers	L	68-69	49%
Jan 13, 2021	80	Northwestern	W	73-63	82%
Jan 16, 2021	13	@ Illinois	L	67-71	38%
Jan 23, 2021	8	@ Wisconsin	L	63-67	36%
Jan 27, 2021	28	Purdue	W	68-63	66%
Jan 31, 2021	10	Michigan St.	W	73-71	56%
Feb 04, 2021	9	@ Iowa	L	74-78	36%
Feb 08, 2021	39	@ Maryland	W	70-69	51%
Feb 13, 2021	24	Indiana	W	71-67	63%
Feb 18, 2021	62	@ Penn St.	W	74-72	57%
Feb 21, 2021	19	Michigan	W	73-70	60%
Feb 25, 2021	10	@ Michigan St.	L	70-74	37%
Feb 28, 2021	9	Iowa	W	77-75	56%
Mar 06, 2021	13	Illinois	W	70-68	57%
Projected Record						16 - 10	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.7	2.1	3.2	3.3	1.8	0.8	0.3		12.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	3.6	2.1	0.7	0.1				10.4	2nd
3rd												0.1	0.9	3.7	3.9	1.6	0.2	0.0					10.4	3rd
4th											0.0	0.8	3.3	3.7	1.5	0.2	0.0						9.5	4th
5th										0.0	0.5	2.8	3.8	1.5	0.2	0.0							8.9	5th
6th										0.2	2.1	4.1	2.0	0.2									8.6	6th
7th								0.0	0.1	1.4	3.9	2.3	0.4										8.2	7th
8th							0.0	0.1	1.1	3.3	2.8	0.5	0.0										7.8	8th
9th							0.1	0.7	2.6	2.6	0.5	0.0											6.5	9th
10th						0.1	0.4	2.1	2.4	0.8	0.0												5.8	10th
11th					0.0	0.4	1.2	1.9	0.8	0.1													4.4	11th
12th			0.0	0.0	0.4	1.0	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0													3.6	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0														2.5	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0																1.2	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.4	2.4	3.7	5.7	7.1	8.4	10.0	10.6	10.4	10.3	9.1	7.4	5.5	4.0	1.9	0.8	0.3			Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
19-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
18-2	95.5%	1.8		1.6	0.2	0.0
17-3	83.0%	3.3		2.4	0.8	0.1
16-4	57.8%	3.2		1.8	1.1	0.2	0.0
15-5	28.5%	2.1		0.7	0.9	0.5	0.0	0.0
14-6	7.4%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	12.3%	12.3		7.8	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.3%		100.0%	65.8%	34.2%	1.0		0.3	0.0																	100.0%
19-1	0.8%		100.0%	48.3%	51.7%	1.2		0.7	0.1	0.0																100.0%
18-2	1.9%		100.0%	39.1%	60.9%	1.3		1.3	0.5	0.0																100.0%
17-3	4.0%		100.0%	32.1%	67.9%	1.6		2.0	1.6	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
16-4	5.5%		100.0%	24.8%	75.2%	2.1		1.6	2.2	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
15-5	7.4%		100.0%	21.2%	78.8%	2.9		0.8	2.0	2.6	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0												100.0%
14-6	9.1%		100.0%	14.7%	85.3%	3.9		0.2	1.0	2.6	2.6	1.6	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0										100.0%
13-7	10.3%		99.9%	10.9%	89.0%	5.0		0.1	0.2	1.6	2.2	2.6	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.9%
12-8	10.4%		99.3%	7.4%	91.9%	6.2			0.1	0.5	1.1	2.1	2.5	1.9	1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.1		99.3%
11-9	10.6%		92.6%	3.6%	89.0%	7.7			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.5	1.9	1.9	1.3	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0			0.8		92.3%
10-10	10.0%		73.3%	2.7%	70.6%	9.2				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.8	1.2	1.0	1.2	1.1	0.9	0.2	0.0			2.7		72.5%
9-11	8.4%		39.0%	1.8%	37.2%	10.6					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0		5.1		37.9%
8-12	7.1%		9.9%	0.5%	9.4%	11.6								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		6.4		9.5%
7-13	5.7%		1.4%	0.2%	1.2%	11.9										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			5.6		1.2%
6-14	3.7%		0.1%		0.1%	12.0													0.0					3.7		0.1%
5-15	2.4%		0.3%	0.3%		14.0															0.0			2.4
4-16	1.4%																							1.4
3-17	0.7%																							0.7
2-18	0.4%																							0.4
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		70.8%	9.6%	61.2%	5.4		7.0	7.6	9.2	7.9	8.1	7.6	6.2	4.9	3.4	2.9	2.7	2.5	0.7	0.1	0.0		29.2		67.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	99.2	0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0