Preseason Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#74
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.6#334
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 2.0% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 5.6% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 5.4% 9.6% 2.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.1% 46.0% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.5% 40.2% 18.4%
Average Seed 9.2 8.7 9.7
.500 or above 81.0% 91.2% 74.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.1% 82.5% 68.9%
Conference Champion 7.1% 10.3% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.1% 2.4%
First Four5.4% 6.5% 4.7%
First Round29.5% 42.8% 21.3%
Second Round13.9% 21.7% 9.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 8.0% 3.0%
Elite Eight2.0% 3.2% 1.2%
Final Four0.7% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Memphis (Neutral) - 38.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 36 - 210 - 9
Quad 46 - 116 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 40   Memphis L 70-73 38%    
  Nov 27, 2020 237   Texas Southern W 82-67 92%    
  Dec 01, 2020 234   Nicholls St. W 77-62 92%    
  Dec 08, 2020 161   UTEP W 72-61 84%    
  Dec 15, 2020 132   Eastern Washington W 79-70 79%    
  Dec 19, 2020 112   Colorado St. W 76-69 72%    
  Dec 22, 2020 36   San Diego St. L 63-66 38%    
  Dec 30, 2020 230   Sacramento St. W 70-55 91%    
  Jan 02, 2021 108   Pepperdine W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 07, 2021 159   @ San Diego W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 09, 2021 125   @ Santa Clara W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 14, 2021 54   BYU W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 16, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 70-79 24%    
  Jan 21, 2021 154   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 23, 2021 91   @ San Francisco L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 28, 2021 263   Portland W 77-60 92%    
  Jan 30, 2021 138   @ Pacific W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 04, 2021 125   Santa Clara W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 06, 2021 154   Loyola Marymount W 69-59 81%    
  Feb 11, 2021 54   @ BYU L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 13, 2021 108   @ Pepperdine W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 18, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 67-82 12%    
  Feb 25, 2021 91   San Francisco W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 27, 2021 138   Pacific W 69-60 78%    
Projected Record 15 - 9 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.5 0.3 7.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 5.6 7.3 4.9 1.3 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.1 7.1 6.1 1.9 0.2 18.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 6.9 3.9 0.8 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 6.1 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.8 2.2 0.2 9.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 3.4 1.7 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.8 4.5 7.1 9.7 12.1 13.5 13.3 12.7 10.1 7.2 3.4 1.5 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.5    1.3 0.2
14-2 62.7% 2.1    1.2 0.9 0.0
13-3 29.8% 2.1    0.8 1.0 0.3
12-4 8.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 1.5% 99.5% 41.7% 57.7% 3.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
14-2 3.4% 96.6% 27.3% 69.3% 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.3%
13-3 7.2% 90.0% 20.5% 69.5% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 87.5%
12-4 10.1% 74.5% 13.6% 60.9% 9.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 2.6 70.4%
11-5 12.7% 50.2% 9.7% 40.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.3 44.8%
10-6 13.3% 27.2% 5.9% 21.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.7 22.6%
9-7 13.5% 14.6% 3.2% 11.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.5 11.8%
8-8 12.1% 6.4% 3.0% 3.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.3 3.5%
7-9 9.7% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.4%
6-10 7.1% 1.0% 1.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
5-11 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
4-12 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 2.8
3-13 1.1% 1.1
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.1% 7.6% 24.5% 9.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.7 4.1 5.3 6.2 5.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 67.9 26.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 73.9 13.0 13.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.1 30.6 47.2 22.2