Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#77
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.0#321
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.1% 5.1% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 7.7% 9.4% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 34.0% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.5% 24.5% 6.4%
Average Seed 8.6 8.4 10.4
.500 or above 77.4% 83.7% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 69.5% 74.4% 51.0%
Conference Champion 13.0% 15.2% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.0% 7.1%
First Four4.6% 5.1% 2.7%
First Round27.2% 31.5% 10.7%
Second Round13.8% 16.3% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.3% 6.4% 1.3%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 79.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 34 - 8
Quad 36 - 311 - 10
Quad 46 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 134   South Dakota St. W 78-69 79%    
  Nov 11, 2022 71   Washington St. L 65-66 49%    
  Nov 17, 2022 164   Charlotte W 70-62 75%    
  Nov 26, 2022 156   Utah Valley W 70-60 81%    
  Nov 29, 2022 311   Cal St. Northridge W 76-56 96%    
  Dec 03, 2022 39   Texas A&M L 64-68 38%    
  Dec 10, 2022 45   @ Saint Louis L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 13, 2022 286   New Orleans W 81-63 94%    
  Dec 18, 2022 214   Oakland W 76-63 85%    
  Dec 22, 2022 127   @ Santa Clara W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 28, 2022 126   @ Nevada W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 03, 2023 210   San Jose St. W 72-59 85%    
  Jan 07, 2023 76   Utah St. W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 11, 2023 105   @ UNLV W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 14, 2023 62   @ Wyoming L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 17, 2023 126   Nevada W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 20, 2023 110   @ New Mexico W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 24, 2023 99   Fresno St. W 63-57 67%    
  Jan 28, 2023 78   Colorado St. W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 31, 2023 231   @ Air Force W 66-58 74%    
  Feb 03, 2023 23   @ San Diego St. L 58-67 24%    
  Feb 11, 2023 62   Wyoming W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 15, 2023 78   @ Colorado St. L 65-68 42%    
  Feb 19, 2023 105   UNLV W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 22, 2023 110   New Mexico W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 25, 2023 210   @ San Jose St. W 69-62 70%    
  Feb 28, 2023 23   San Diego St. L 61-64 41%    
  Mar 04, 2023 76   @ Utah St. L 65-68 40%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.6 3.2 1.8 0.5 13.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.6 3.8 1.8 0.3 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.1 3.3 0.8 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.7 1.8 0.3 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.5 1.2 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.7 1.0 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.7 7.0 8.5 9.6 10.6 11.0 10.5 9.4 7.2 5.4 3.5 1.8 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 91.4% 3.2    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 66.8% 3.6    2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.5% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.4% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 8.2 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 98.6% 41.3% 57.2% 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5%
17-1 1.8% 99.3% 40.0% 59.3% 3.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
16-2 3.5% 95.8% 33.5% 62.3% 5.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.7%
15-3 5.4% 87.5% 27.3% 60.2% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.7 82.8%
14-4 7.2% 73.4% 19.1% 54.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.9 67.2%
13-5 9.4% 54.2% 16.7% 37.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 45.0%
12-6 10.5% 35.1% 13.1% 22.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 25.3%
11-7 11.0% 20.6% 9.9% 10.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.7 11.9%
10-8 10.6% 11.5% 8.1% 3.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 3.7%
9-9 9.6% 7.4% 6.1% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.9 1.3%
8-10 8.5% 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.2 0.1%
7-11 7.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
6-12 5.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.5
5-13 4.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.9
4-14 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 29.4% 11.3% 18.2% 8.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.4 3.3 4.2 5.6 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 70.6 20.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 54.0 29.4 14.9 1.6