Preseason Rankings
Kentucky
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#3
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#137
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.7% 6.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 22.1% 22.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 37.8% 37.9% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 58.0% 58.0% 6.5%
Top 6 Seed 71.3% 71.4% 11.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.3% 88.3% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.7% 85.8% 17.2%
Average Seed 3.9 3.9 5.6
.500 or above 96.2% 96.3% 42.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 91.2% 39.8%
Conference Champion 33.6% 33.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 13.4%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 2.7%
First Round87.5% 87.5% 17.2%
Second Round74.2% 74.2% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen49.7% 49.7% 6.5%
Elite Eight30.5% 30.6% 6.5%
Final Four17.9% 17.9% 3.2%
Championship Game10.1% 10.1% 0.5%
National Champion5.8% 5.8% 0.5%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 6
Quad 26 - 113 - 7
Quad 35 - 017 - 7
Quad 46 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 332   Howard W 96-63 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2022 178   Duquesne W 83-61 98%    
  Nov 15, 2022 25   Michigan St. W 77-72 68%    
  Nov 17, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 97-57 100.0%   
  Nov 20, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 81-84 41%    
  Nov 23, 2022 243   North Florida W 88-63 98%    
  Nov 29, 2022 250   Bellarmine W 82-56 98%    
  Dec 04, 2022 15   Michigan W 76-72 62%    
  Dec 10, 2022 146   Yale W 83-63 95%    
  Dec 17, 2022 8   UCLA W 73-71 55%    
  Dec 21, 2022 351   Florida A&M W 87-50 99.9%   
  Dec 28, 2022 70   @ Missouri W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 31, 2022 73   Louisville W 79-66 86%    
  Jan 03, 2023 47   LSU W 80-69 81%    
  Jan 07, 2023 22   Alabama W 85-77 73%    
  Jan 10, 2023 87   South Carolina W 83-68 88%    
  Jan 14, 2023 10   @ Tennessee L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 17, 2023 106   Georgia W 86-69 91%    
  Jan 21, 2023 39   Texas A&M W 77-67 79%    
  Jan 24, 2023 72   @ Vanderbilt W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 28, 2023 6   Kansas W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 31, 2023 58   @ Mississippi W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 04, 2023 30   Florida W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 07, 2023 11   Arkansas W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 11, 2023 106   @ Georgia W 83-72 80%    
  Feb 15, 2023 64   @ Mississippi St. W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 10   Tennessee W 75-70 64%    
  Feb 22, 2023 30   @ Florida W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 25, 2023 21   Auburn W 81-73 72%    
  Mar 01, 2023 72   Vanderbilt W 80-67 85%    
  Mar 04, 2023 11   @ Arkansas L 76-77 47%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.9 7.9 9.6 7.4 3.6 33.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.5 6.5 4.3 1.2 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.0 1.7 0.2 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.2 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.0 7.2 8.7 10.7 12.1 13.0 12.6 10.8 7.5 3.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.6    3.6
17-1 99.4% 7.4    7.0 0.5
16-2 89.1% 9.6    7.4 2.1 0.1
15-3 62.9% 7.9    4.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-4 30.3% 3.9    1.3 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.4% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 23.8 7.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.6% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 7.5% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 1.2 5.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 10.8% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.6 6.3 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.6% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 2.1 4.3 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.0% 99.9% 19.2% 80.7% 2.9 2.0 3.7 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 12.1% 99.7% 15.8% 84.0% 4.1 0.5 1.5 2.9 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 10.7% 97.7% 12.3% 85.4% 5.4 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.4%
11-7 8.7% 92.6% 10.0% 82.5% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 91.7%
10-8 7.2% 80.2% 8.0% 72.2% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 78.4%
9-9 5.0% 57.7% 6.2% 51.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 54.9%
8-10 3.6% 33.9% 4.9% 29.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 30.5%
7-11 2.4% 14.4% 5.0% 9.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 9.8%
6-12 1.4% 3.8% 2.5% 1.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3%
5-13 0.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 88.3% 18.0% 70.3% 3.9 22.1 15.7 11.3 8.8 7.4 5.9 5.1 4.2 3.0 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.7 85.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.8 7.2