Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#144
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.1#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 9.3% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 13.3
.500 or above 59.8% 69.5% 42.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.5% 65.7% 48.1%
Conference Champion 8.1% 10.2% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 4.1% 9.7%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round7.5% 9.1% 4.6%
Second Round1.6% 2.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 42 - 5
Quad 36 - 78 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 165   Furman W 80-76 65%    
  Nov 14, 2024 158   @ Lipscomb L 79-81 42%    
  Nov 15, 2024 229   @ Air Force W 70-69 55%    
  Nov 19, 2024 225   Oral Roberts W 80-73 74%    
  Nov 26, 2024 141   Loyola Marymount L 73-74 49%    
  Nov 29, 2024 246   Gardner-Webb W 80-72 76%    
  Dec 04, 2024 193   Illinois St. W 73-68 69%    
  Dec 07, 2024 197   Middle Tennessee W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 14, 2024 133   @ Richmond L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 19, 2024 103   UC Irvine L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 29, 2024 106   @ Drake L 72-79 29%    
  Jan 01, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 203   Illinois-Chicago W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 08, 2025 140   Southern Illinois W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 132   @ Indiana St. L 78-82 37%    
  Jan 14, 2025 242   Valparaiso W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 228   @ Evansville W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 21, 2025 92   Bradley L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 70-74 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 193   @ Illinois St. L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 02, 2025 228   Evansville W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 207   Missouri St. W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 12, 2025 242   @ Valparaiso W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 140   @ Southern Illinois L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 112   Northern Iowa W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 132   Indiana St. W 81-79 56%    
  Feb 26, 2025 207   @ Missouri St. W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 136   Murray St. W 73-71 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 8.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.0 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.3 8.6 9.7 10.4 10.5 10.0 8.5 7.2 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.9% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 81.9% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 57.4% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.4% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.5% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 4.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 82.7% 58.0% 24.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.8%
19-1 0.5% 62.6% 46.4% 16.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 30.2%
18-2 1.1% 49.1% 41.4% 7.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 13.2%
17-3 2.2% 37.0% 33.3% 3.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 5.5%
16-4 3.7% 24.8% 24.3% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.6%
15-5 5.2% 20.3% 20.1% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 0.2%
14-6 7.2% 14.6% 14.6% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.1
13-7 8.5% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.5 0.0%
12-8 10.0% 8.1% 8.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.2
11-9 10.5% 4.4% 4.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.0
10-10 10.4% 2.7% 2.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.1
9-11 9.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6
8-12 8.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.5
7-13 7.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
6-14 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-17 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.7% 7.4% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 92.3 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 26.5 14.7 14.7 29.4 14.7