Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#239
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.6#12
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#262
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 7.4% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 39.3% 62.7% 33.9%
.500 or above in Conference 44.9% 60.9% 41.3%
Conference Champion 4.2% 7.6% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 4.0% 10.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.1% 7.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 120   @ St. Bonaventure L 69-78 19%    
  Nov 06, 2024 335   @ Le Moyne W 77-73 64%    
  Nov 16, 2024 300   @ Sacramento St. W 71-70 51%    
  Nov 24, 2024 276   Utah Tech W 80-78 56%    
  Nov 25, 2024 317   Denver W 83-78 66%    
  Nov 27, 2024 190   @ Montana L 73-79 31%    
  Nov 30, 2024 149   @ Montana St. L 73-81 25%    
  Dec 05, 2024 183   UC Riverside W 75-74 50%    
  Dec 07, 2024 345   @ Cal Poly W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 18, 2024 46   @ USC L 69-86 7%    
  Dec 21, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 02, 2025 244   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 04, 2025 191   UC Davis W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 103   UC Irvine L 73-79 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 17, 2025 192   @ Hawaii L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 23, 2025 245   Long Beach St. W 82-79 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 162   @ UC San Diego L 71-78 28%    
  Jan 30, 2025 167   @ UC Santa Barbara L 73-80 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 278   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 244   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 245   @ Long Beach St. L 79-82 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 345   Cal Poly W 77-66 81%    
  Feb 20, 2025 103   @ UC Irvine L 70-82 16%    
  Feb 22, 2025 191   @ UC Davis L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 27, 2025 162   UC San Diego L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 167   UC Santa Barbara L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 183   @ UC Riverside L 72-78 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 192   Hawaii W 73-72 52%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.8 1.7 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.1 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.2 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.9 3.2 1.0 0.1 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 3.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.5 8.0 9.6 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.2 7.9 6.1 4.7 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.8% 0.4    0.4 0.1
17-3 85.4% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 60.2% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.1
15-5 29.9% 0.9    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 82.9% 71.4% 11.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0%
19-1 0.2% 54.6% 54.3% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7%
18-2 0.4% 40.4% 40.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.1% 34.3% 34.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-4 1.9% 26.4% 26.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-5 3.1% 21.6% 21.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.4
14-6 4.7% 15.7% 15.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 4.0
13-7 6.1% 10.5% 10.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 5.5
12-8 7.9% 5.4% 5.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.5
11-9 9.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.0
10-10 10.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.1
9-11 10.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
8-12 10.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-13 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
6-14 8.0% 8.0
5-15 6.5% 6.5
4-16 4.7% 4.7
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18 1.6% 1.6
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.4 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%