Preseason Rankings
East Carolina
American Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#137
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#319
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#151
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.5% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 12.5
.500 or above 57.6% 62.1% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 46.8% 49.8% 29.8%
Conference Champion 3.7% 4.1% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 8.1% 16.3%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round3.9% 4.3% 1.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 35 - 67 - 11
Quad 48 - 215 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 291   Coastal Carolina W 76-65 85%    
  Nov 16, 2024 96   George Mason L 64-65 45%    
  Nov 21, 2024 202   Jacksonville St. W 67-63 63%    
  Nov 29, 2024 312   N.C. A&T W 76-63 87%    
  Dec 03, 2024 157   UNC Wilmington W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 07, 2024 64   @ South Carolina L 59-69 19%    
  Dec 11, 2024 231   North Alabama W 74-66 76%    
  Dec 17, 2024 275   Florida International W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 246   Gardner-Webb W 74-65 77%    
  Dec 31, 2024 102   @ South Florida L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 05, 2025 97   Florida Atlantic L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 08, 2025 130   Temple W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 42   @ Memphis L 67-79 15%    
  Jan 14, 2025 86   North Texas L 60-62 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 105   @ Wichita St. L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 21, 2025 148   @ Tulsa L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 102   South Florida L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 130   @ Temple L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 05, 2025 211   Rice W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 232   @ Texas San Antonio W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 11, 2025 88   UAB L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 126   @ Charlotte L 61-65 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 175   @ Tulane L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 23, 2025 232   Texas San Antonio W 77-69 74%    
  Mar 02, 2025 126   Charlotte W 64-62 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 175   Tulane W 77-72 66%    
  Mar 09, 2025 97   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-73 27%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.8 0.8 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 1.9 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.8 12th
13th 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.4 13th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.1 7.9 9.9 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.1 8.6 6.6 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 84.7% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 60.9% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 33.7% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 87.0% 37.0% 50.0% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.4%
17-1 0.3% 72.0% 27.1% 44.9% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 61.6%
16-2 0.8% 51.7% 28.0% 23.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 32.9%
15-3 1.6% 34.8% 22.5% 12.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 15.9%
14-4 3.0% 20.9% 17.2% 3.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 4.5%
13-5 4.9% 12.3% 11.5% 0.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.3 1.0%
12-6 6.6% 8.2% 8.1% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.0 0.1%
11-7 8.6% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0%
10-8 10.1% 3.1% 3.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8
9-9 11.0% 1.5% 1.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
8-10 11.4% 0.7% 0.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3
7-11 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
6-12 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
5-13 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-14 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 3.9% 3.9
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.1% 3.3% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 95.9 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 24.0 20.0 20.0 36.0