IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.6	#327
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.1	#77
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.8	#334

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#311

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.4%	12.4%	5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.6	15.8

.500 or above	23.5%	53.0%	22.3%
.500 or above in Conference	46.4%	67.6%	45.6%
Conference Champion	6.1%	15.6%	5.7%
Last Place in Conference	12.6%	5.3%	12.9%

First Four	3.6%	5.4%	3.5%
First Round	3.4%	9.8%	3.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 11	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	92	@ Bradley	L	61-80	4%
Nov 10, 2024	89	@ Vanderbilt	L	62-82	4%
Nov 17, 2024	147	Chattanooga	L	69-77	25%
Nov 21, 2024	341	@ Central Arkansas	L	73-74	46%
Nov 22, 2024	186	UNC Asheville	L	69-78	22%
Nov 30, 2024	205	@ UMKC	L	65-75	18%
Dec 05, 2024	158	@ Lipscomb	L	70-83	13%
Dec 08, 2024	136	@ Murray St.	L	62-76	11%
Dec 19, 2024	326	Eastern Illinois	W	71-68	60%
Dec 21, 2024	316	SIU Edwardsville	W	71-69	56%
Jan 02, 2025	309	@ Tennessee St.	L	70-75	34%
Jan 04, 2025	323	@ Tennessee Martin	L	77-80	39%
Jan 09, 2025	328	Southern Indiana	W	75-72	61%
Jan 11, 2025	224	Morehead St.	L	65-69	38%
Jan 14, 2025	267	Arkansas Little Rock	L	74-76	45%
Jan 16, 2025	336	@ Tennessee Tech	L	68-70	44%
Jan 23, 2025	349	@ Lindenwood	L	71-72	50%
Jan 25, 2025	294	@ Western Illinois	L	64-70	32%
Jan 30, 2025	323	Tennessee Martin	W	80-77	59%
Feb 01, 2025	309	Tennessee St.	W	73-72	54%
Feb 06, 2025	224	@ Morehead St.	L	62-72	22%
Feb 08, 2025	328	@ Southern Indiana	L	72-75	41%
Feb 11, 2025	267	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	71-79	27%
Feb 15, 2025	336	Tennessee Tech	W	71-67	64%
Feb 20, 2025	294	Western Illinois	W	68-67	51%
Feb 22, 2025	349	Lindenwood	W	74-68	68%
Feb 27, 2025	316	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	68-72	37%
Mar 01, 2025	326	@ Eastern Illinois	L	68-71	41%
Projected Record						11 - 17	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.6	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0		6.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.6	1.9	2.4	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0				7.4	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	2.8	3.2	1.5	0.3	0.0						8.8	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	3.3	3.3	1.2	0.2	0.0							9.2	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	3.8	3.6	1.2	0.1	0.0								9.8	5th
6th								0.1	1.2	4.0	3.9	1.1	0.1										10.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.1	4.0	3.9	1.1	0.1											10.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.4	3.8	3.8	1.2	0.1												10.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.6	3.5	3.3	1.1	0.1													9.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.8	2.0	3.2	2.5	0.8	0.1														9.5	10th
11th	0.2	0.7	1.5	2.2	2.1	1.2	0.4	0.0															8.4	11th

Total	0.2	0.7	1.7	3.0	4.4	6.2	7.9	9.1	10.2	10.2	10.1	9.0	7.9	6.6	4.9	3.4	2.3	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
18-2	97.7%	0.6		0.5	0.0
17-3	86.6%	1.1		0.9	0.2	0.0
16-4	68.9%	1.6		1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
15-5	43.1%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-6	16.5%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	3.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.1%	6.1		3.7	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		51.3%	51.3%		13.6													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.2%		54.3%	54.3%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
18-2	0.6%		42.6%	42.6%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3
17-3	1.3%		36.5%	36.5%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.8
16-4	2.3%		33.7%	33.7%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.5
15-5	3.4%		26.2%	26.2%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.8	2.5
14-6	4.9%		18.1%	18.1%		16.0																0.0	0.8	4.0
13-7	6.6%		11.8%	11.8%		16.0																0.0	0.8	5.9
12-8	7.9%		6.4%	6.4%		16.0																	0.5	7.4
11-9	9.0%		3.7%	3.7%		16.0																	0.3	8.7
10-10	10.1%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.2	9.9
9-11	10.2%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	10.2
8-12	10.2%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
7-13	9.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
6-14	7.9%																							7.9
5-15	6.2%																							6.2
4-16	4.4%																							4.4
3-17	3.0%																							3.0
2-18	1.7%																							1.7
1-19	0.7%																							0.7
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.4%	5.4%	0.0%	15.8													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	4.5	94.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%