Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#157
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#311
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 13.2% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 72.1% 79.4% 55.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 81.6% 68.0%
Conference Champion 15.0% 17.5% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.2% 3.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round11.2% 13.1% 6.9%
Second Round1.6% 2.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 209   Georgia Southern W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 15, 2024 330   @ South Carolina Upstate W 72-65 74%    
  Nov 19, 2024 2   @ Kansas L 61-83 3%    
  Nov 27, 2024 171   Colgate W 69-65 62%    
  Nov 29, 2024 119   Sam Houston St. W 69-68 51%    
  Nov 30, 2024 139   Appalachian St. W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 03, 2024 137   @ East Carolina L 65-69 36%    
  Dec 07, 2024 194   Marshall W 75-70 66%    
  Dec 14, 2024 249   @ Howard W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 18, 2024 206   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-63 69%    
  Dec 21, 2024 186   UNC Asheville W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 02, 2025 124   Towson W 64-63 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 301   Campbell W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 09, 2025 216   @ Monmouth W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 155   @ Hofstra L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 16, 2025 220   Northeastern W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 247   William & Mary W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 23, 2025 117   @ College of Charleston L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 322   Hampton W 78-65 85%    
  Jan 30, 2025 312   @ N.C. A&T W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 260   Stony Brook W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 06, 2025 187   @ Delaware L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 117   College of Charleston W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 288   Elon W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 20, 2025 247   @ William & Mary W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 322   @ Hampton W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 27, 2025 301   @ Campbell W 70-66 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 187   Delaware W 71-67 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 4.4 3.7 1.9 0.4 15.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.7 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.0 1.1 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 4.0 1.5 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.6 0.2 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.7 7.9 9.4 10.9 12.1 11.9 10.7 9.3 6.7 4.2 1.9 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.9% 1.9    1.8 0.1
16-2 89.3% 3.7    3.0 0.7 0.0
15-3 65.7% 4.4    2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 34.7% 3.2    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.6% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 9.2 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 65.8% 58.9% 6.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 16.7%
17-1 1.9% 46.2% 44.5% 1.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.1%
16-2 4.2% 37.1% 36.8% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 0.5%
15-3 6.7% 26.8% 26.8% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.9 0.1%
14-4 9.3% 21.2% 21.2% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.3
13-5 10.7% 17.2% 17.2% 13.9 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 8.8
12-6 11.9% 11.9% 11.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 10.5
11-7 12.1% 7.0% 7.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 11.2
10-8 10.9% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.4
9-9 9.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.3
8-10 7.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.9
7-11 5.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.6
6-12 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.4% 11.3% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.2 3.0 1.8 0.6 88.6 0.1%