Atlantic Coast
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Duke 99%   2   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +23.9 1 A+ +13 2 A+ +11 1 -1 250 0 1
Virginia 93%   4   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +17.5 12 A- +9 18 A +8 10 +5 90 0 1
Louisville 93%   4   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +17.3 13 A- +9 20 A +8 11 +4 98 0 1
Miami (FL) 78%   8   Bubble - In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +16.5 19 A- +9 19 A- +7 21 +10 29 0 1
North Carolina 74%   8   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.0 46 B+ +6 52 B+ +6 43 +9 46 0 1
Virginia Tech 45%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.6 48 B+ +7 47 B+ +5 50 -4 299 0 1
North Carolina St. 50%   11   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.3 50 A- +8 30 B- +3 88 +5 89 0 1
Clemson 48%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.2 52 B+ +6 53 B+ +5 51 +3 114 0 1
Florida St. 39%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +10.7 56 B +6 55 B +5 52 +2 128 0 1
SMU 33%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +9.4 62 B +6 60 B +4 75 +2 127 0 1
Syracuse 16%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.5 71 B- +4 85 B +5 60 -2 272 0 1
Pittsburgh 21%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.2 74 B- +4 80 B +4 69 -4 298 0 1
Stanford 40%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.1 75 B- +4 84 B +4 67 +9 42 0 1
Notre Dame 60%   11   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.1 76 B- +4 83 B +4 71 +26 7 0 1
California 13%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +6.6 91 B- +3 94 B- +3 84 +4 101 0 1
Wake Forest 8%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +6.5 94 B- +3 103 B +4 77 -7 316 0 1
Georgia Tech 6%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +4.5 104 C+ +2 111 B- +2 101 +6 79 0 1
Boston College 2%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +4.4 105 C+ +2 105 C+ +2 112 -1 263 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 1 76 Notre Dame 74 37 Villanova 72   
Mon, Nov 2 2 Florida 77 19 Miami (FL) 67   
262 Chattanooga 70 13 Louisville 84   
46 North Carolina 80 164 Western Carolina 72   
335 Army 50 1 Duke 84   
52 Clemson 85 277 Stetson 72   
160 Eastern Washington 65 75 Stanford 74   
247 Campbell 64 50 North Carolina St. 83   
62 SMU 85 296 Southern 72   
345 New Haven 58 71 Syracuse 74   
337 Florida A&M 69 56 Florida St. 112   
74 Pittsburgh 95 358 Rider 57   
364 Maryland Eastern Shore 62 94 Wake Forest 83   
Tue, Nov 3 249 Drexel 60 12 Virginia 89   
104 Georgia Tech 75 228 Hampton 55   
359 Coppin St. 54 48 Virginia Tech 88   
105 Boston College 76 342 Wagner 50   
Wed, Nov 4 91 California 84 264 Radford 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 22 Vanderbilt 80 94 Wake Forest 67 88%   
250 Coastal Carolina 54 1 Duke 86 99%   
232 Mercer 64 48 Virginia Tech 83 95%   
245 Buffalo 64 74 Pittsburgh 80 92%   
308 Mercyhurst 57 76 Notre Dame 76 95%   
62 SMU 85 330 VMI 62 97%   
327 Central Connecticut St. 55 71 Syracuse 77 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 267 Northeastern 63 12 Virginia 90 98%   
163 East Tennessee St. 67 50 North Carolina St. 82 91%   
198 American 59 52 Clemson 75 93%   
56 Florida St. 80 197 Troy 64 93%   
46 North Carolina 84 260 Wofford 63 96%   
19 Miami (FL) 84 342 Wagner 53 99%   
203 Oakland 67 75 Stanford 81 90%   
105 Boston College 73 143 Massachusetts 70 64%   
288 Georgia Southern 69 104 Georgia Tech 84 91%   
Sat, Nov 7 13 Louisville 88 334 Morehead St. 57 99%   
Sun, Nov 8 20 Arkansas 76 12 Virginia 77 55%   
91 California 63 4 Houston 77 89%   
93 Penn St. 71 74 Pittsburgh 73 57%   
Mon, Nov 9 33 Indiana 74 71 Syracuse 68 70%   
19 Miami (FL) 90 293 North Florida 63 99%   
241 Rice 61 75 Stanford 77 92%   
52 Clemson 81 325 North Dakota 56 98%   
355 Eastern Illinois 54 76 Notre Dame 78 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 2 47% 32% 11% 4% 47 21 12 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Louisville 4 22% 13% 7% 3% 22 19 15 11 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Virginia 4 21% 12% 6% 3% 21 17 14 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
Miami (FL) 6 9% 4% 3% 2% 9 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0
Virginia Tech 7 7% 3% 2% 1% 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1
North Carolina 8 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1
Clemson 8 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1
North Carolina St. 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1
Florida St. 9 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2
SMU 10 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3
Stanford 10 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3
Notre Dame 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4
Pittsburgh 10 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4
Syracuse 11 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4
Wake Forest 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6
California 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9
Georgia Tech 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 17
Boston College 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 15 18

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 14 - 4 25 - 7 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 13 17 20 18 12 5 1
Louisville 12 - 6 20 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 16 16 14 9 5 2 0
Virginia 12 - 6 22 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 11 14 16 16 13 8 4 1 0
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 15 16 14 11 7 4 1 0 0
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 21 - 11 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 13 15 14 12 8 5 3 1 0 0
North Carolina 10 - 8 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 15 14 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Clemson 9 - 9 18 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0
North Carolina St. 9 - 9 20 - 11 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 7 4 1 1 0 0
Florida St. 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 15 14 14 11 8 4 2 1 0 0 0
SMU 8 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 14 12 10 6 3 1 1 0 0
Stanford 8 - 10 18 - 13 0 0 1 2 5 7 11 14 14 13 12 9 6 3 1 1 0 0
Notre Dame 8 - 10 17 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 8 11 14 15 14 12 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
Pittsburgh 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 15 14 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
Syracuse 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 15 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0
Wake Forest 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 15 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
California 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 1 3 6 9 13 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Georgia Tech 6 - 12 15 - 17 1 2 6 10 14 16 15 13 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Boston College 6 - 12 16 - 16 0 2 6 10 14 16 15 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Duke 99% 29% 99% 2 Likely In 20 29 17 11 8 5 4 2 1 1 1 1
Virginia 93% 17% 92% 4 Likely In 9 15 13 12 10 8 7 5 4 4 6 1 7
Louisville 93% 15% 92% 4 Likely In 9 13 13 12 10 9 8 6 4 4 6 1 7
Miami (FL) 78% 7% 77% 8 Bubble - In 2 3 5 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 12 4 22
North Carolina 74% 5% 73% 8 Bubble - In 3 3 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 11 3 26
Virginia Tech 45% 5% 41% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 4 6 11 2 55
North Carolina St. 50% 4% 48% 11 Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 13 6 50
Clemson 48% 4% 46% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 13 4 52
Florida St. 39% 3% 37% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 12 4 61
SMU 33% 2% 31% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 10 4 67
Syracuse 16% 2% 15% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 2 6 1 84
Pittsburgh 21% 2% 20% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 8 2 79
Stanford 40% 2% 39% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 10 7 60
Notre Dame 60% 1% 60% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 9 16 9 11 40
California 13% 1% 12% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 5 2 87
Wake Forest 8% 1% 7% Likely Out 0 1 1 1 3 1 92
Georgia Tech 6% 0% 6% Likely Out 0 1 1 3 1 94
Boston College 2% 0% 2% Likely Out 0 0 0 1 0 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 8.2 0 1 7 20 31 26 11 3 0 0 0
1st Round 100% 7.1 0 0 1 8 22 32 24 10 2 0 0
2nd Round 100% 4.5 0 1 4 16 30 28 15 5 1 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 96% 2.3 4 19 35 28 11 3 0 0
Elite Eight 76% 1.2 24 43 26 6 1 0 0
Final Four 50% 0.6 50 41 9 1 0
Final Game 29% 0.3 71 27 2
Champion 16% 0.2 84 16

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 99% 2% 99% 87% 58% 35% 21% 12% 7%
Virginia 93% 9% 89% 70% 41% 22% 12% 6% 3%
Louisville 93% 9% 89% 68% 39% 21% 11% 5% 3%
Miami (FL) 78% 20% 69% 43% 20% 9% 4% 2% 1%
North Carolina 74% 16% 66% 39% 17% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Virginia Tech 45% 17% 37% 21% 9% 4% 2% 1%
North Carolina St. 50% 20% 40% 21% 9% 3% 1% 1%
Clemson 48% 19% 38% 20% 8% 4% 1% 1%
Florida St. 39% 18% 30% 15% 6% 3% 1%
SMU 33% 16% 25% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Syracuse 16% 8% 12% 6% 2% 1%
Pittsburgh 21% 11% 16% 8% 3% 1%
Stanford 40% 18% 30% 14% 5% 2% 1%
Notre Dame 60% 17% 50% 20% 6% 2% 1%
California 13% 8% 8% 4% 1%
Wake Forest 8% 5% 6% 2% 1%
Georgia Tech 6% 4% 4% 1%
Boston College 2% 2% 2% 1%