Atlantic Coast
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Duke 99%   2   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +23.9 1 A+ +13 2 A+ +11 1 -1 255 0 1
Virginia 93%   4   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +17.5 12 A- +9 17 A +8 10 +5 88 0 1
Louisville 93%   4   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +17.3 13 A- +9 20 A +8 12 +4 97 0 1
Miami (FL) 79%   8   Bubble - In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +16.5 19 A- +9 18 A- +7 21 +10 30 0 1
North Carolina 74%   8   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.0 46 B+ +6 52 B+ +6 42 +9 47 0 1
Virginia Tech 45%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.6 48 B+ +7 47 B+ +5 50 -4 302 0 1
North Carolina St. 50%   11   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.3 50 A- +8 30 B- +3 88 +5 87 0 1
Clemson 47%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.2 52 B+ +6 53 B+ +5 51 +3 112 0 1
Florida St. 38%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +10.7 56 B +6 55 B +5 52 +2 125 0 1
SMU 32%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +9.4 63 B +6 59 B +4 75 +2 124 0 1
Syracuse 16%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.5 70 B- +4 82 B +5 60 -2 276 0 1
Pittsburgh 23%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.2 73 B- +4 77 B +4 69 -4 301 0 1
Stanford 41%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.1 74 B- +4 81 B +4 66 +9 42 0 1
Notre Dame 60%   11   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.1 75 B- +4 80 B +4 71 +26 7 0 1
California 10%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.7 90 B- +3 92 B- +3 82 0 159 0 1
Wake Forest 8%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +6.5 94 B- +3 103 B +4 76 -8 321 0 1
Georgia Tech 7%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +4.5 104 C+ +2 111 B- +2 101 +6 78 0 1
Boston College 3%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +4.4 105 C+ +3 105 C+ +2 111 -1 267 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 1 75 Notre Dame 74 37 Villanova 72   
Mon, Nov 2 2 Florida 77 19 Miami (FL) 67   
Mon, Nov 2 262 Chattanooga 70 13 Louisville 84   
Mon, Nov 2 46 North Carolina 80 164 Western Carolina 72   
Mon, Nov 2 335 Army 50 1 Duke 84   
Mon, Nov 2 52 Clemson 85 278 Stetson 72   
Mon, Nov 2 160 Eastern Washington 65 74 Stanford 74   
Mon, Nov 2 247 Campbell 64 50 North Carolina St. 83   
Mon, Nov 2 63 SMU 85 296 Southern 72   
Mon, Nov 2 346 New Haven 58 70 Syracuse 74   
Mon, Nov 2 337 Florida A&M 69 56 Florida St. 112   
Mon, Nov 2 73 Pittsburgh 95 358 Rider 57   
Mon, Nov 2 364 Maryland Eastern Shore 62 94 Wake Forest 83   
Tue, Nov 3 249 Drexel 60 12 Virginia 89   
Tue, Nov 3 104 Georgia Tech 75 228 Hampton 55   
Tue, Nov 3 359 Coppin St. 54 48 Virginia Tech 88   
Tue, Nov 3 105 Boston College 76 343 Wagner 50   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 4 90 California 83 267 Radford 67 92%   
Thu, Nov 5 22 Vanderbilt 80 94 Wake Forest 67 88%   
Thu, Nov 5 250 Coastal Carolina 54 1 Duke 86 99%   
Thu, Nov 5 232 Mercer 64 48 Virginia Tech 83 95%   
Thu, Nov 5 245 Buffalo 64 73 Pittsburgh 80 92%   
Thu, Nov 5 308 Mercyhurst 57 75 Notre Dame 76 95%   
Thu, Nov 5 63 SMU 85 330 VMI 62 97%   
Thu, Nov 5 327 Central Connecticut St. 55 70 Syracuse 77 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 266 Northeastern 63 12 Virginia 90 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 163 East Tennessee St. 67 50 North Carolina St. 82 91%   
Fri, Nov 6 199 American 59 52 Clemson 76 93%   
Fri, Nov 6 56 Florida St. 80 198 Troy 64 93%   
Fri, Nov 6 46 North Carolina 84 260 Wofford 63 96%   
Fri, Nov 6 19 Miami (FL) 84 343 Wagner 53 99%   
Fri, Nov 6 203 Oakland 67 74 Stanford 81 90%   
Fri, Nov 6 105 Boston College 73 144 Massachusetts 70 64%   
Fri, Nov 6 289 Georgia Southern 69 104 Georgia Tech 84 91%   
Sat, Nov 7 13 Louisville 88 334 Morehead St. 57 99%   
Sun, Nov 8 20 Arkansas 76 12 Virginia 77 55%   
Sun, Nov 8 90 California 63 4 Houston 76 89%   
Sun, Nov 8 93 Penn St. 71 73 Pittsburgh 73 57%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 2 48% 33% 11% 4% 48 21 11 7 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Louisville 4 23% 13% 7% 3% 23 19 14 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Virginia 4 21% 12% 6% 3% 21 17 15 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Miami (FL) 6 9% 4% 3% 2% 9 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0
Virginia Tech 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1
North Carolina 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1
Clemson 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1
North Carolina St. 8 4% 1% 2% 1% 4 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1
Florida St. 9 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2
SMU 10 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3
Stanford 10 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 3
Notre Dame 10 1% 1% 1% 0% 1 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4
Pittsburgh 10 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3
Syracuse 10 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 2 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4
Wake Forest 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 6
California 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9
Boston College 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 12 15 18
Georgia Tech 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 18

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 14 - 4 25 - 7 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 12 17 20 17 12 5 1
Louisville 12 - 6 20 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 14 16 17 14 9 5 2 0
Virginia 12 - 6 22 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 11 14 17 16 12 8 4 1 0
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 15 16 15 11 7 4 1 0 0
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 21 - 11 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 8 11 13 15 14 12 8 5 3 1 0 0
North Carolina 10 - 8 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 13 14 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Clemson 9 - 9 18 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 6 10 13 15 15 12 10 6 3 2 1 0 0
North Carolina St. 9 - 9 20 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 13 10 6 3 1 0 0
Florida St. 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 15 15 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
SMU 8 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 14 15 12 10 6 3 2 1 0 0
Stanford 8 - 10 18 - 13 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 2 0 0 0 0
Notre Dame 8 - 10 17 - 13 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 14 14 12 9 5 3 1 1 0 0
Pittsburgh 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 14 14 11 8 6 3 1 1 0 0
Syracuse 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 15 13 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0
Wake Forest 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
California 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 15 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Boston College 6 - 12 16 - 16 0 3 6 10 14 16 15 12 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Georgia Tech 6 - 12 15 - 17 1 2 6 11 14 16 15 13 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Duke 99% 29% 99% 2 Likely In 19 29 17 11 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 1
Virginia 93% 17% 92% 4 Likely In 9 15 13 12 10 8 7 5 4 4 5 1 7
Louisville 93% 15% 92% 4 Likely In 8 13 13 12 10 9 8 6 4 4 6 1 7
Miami (FL) 79% 8% 78% 8 Bubble - In 2 3 5 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 12 4 21
North Carolina 74% 5% 73% 8 Bubble - In 2 3 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 7 12 3 26
Virginia Tech 45% 5% 42% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 12 2 55
North Carolina St. 50% 4% 49% 11 Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 3 5 5 5 6 13 6 50
Clemson 47% 3% 45% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 13 4 53
Florida St. 38% 3% 36% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 12 4 62
SMU 32% 2% 31% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 10 4 68
Syracuse 16% 2% 15% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 6 1 84
Pittsburgh 23% 2% 21% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 2 3 8 2 77
Stanford 41% 2% 40% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 7 59
Notre Dame 60% 1% 59% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 1 1 2 4 6 10 16 9 10 40
California 10% 1% 9% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 4 1 90
Wake Forest 8% 1% 7% Likely Out 0 1 1 1 3 1 92
Georgia Tech 7% 0% 6% Likely Out 0 1 1 3 2 93
Boston College 3% 0% 2% Likely Out 0 0 0 1 1 97

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 8.2 0 0 1 7 21 31 25 11 2 0 0
1st Round 100% 7.1 0 1 8 22 32 24 10 2 0 0
2nd Round 100% 4.5 0 0 5 16 29 28 16 5 1 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 96% 2.3 4 19 36 27 11 2 0 0
Elite Eight 77% 1.2 23 44 25 7 1 0
Final Four 50% 0.6 50 40 9 1 0
Final Game 29% 0.3 71 27 2
Champion 16% 0.2 84 16

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 99% 2% 99% 87% 59% 36% 21% 12% 7%
Virginia 93% 9% 90% 69% 40% 22% 12% 6% 3%
Louisville 93% 9% 89% 68% 38% 20% 11% 5% 3%
Miami (FL) 79% 20% 70% 43% 21% 10% 5% 2% 1%
North Carolina 74% 17% 66% 39% 17% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Virginia Tech 45% 17% 36% 21% 9% 4% 2% 1%
North Carolina St. 50% 21% 40% 20% 8% 4% 1% 1%
Clemson 47% 19% 37% 19% 8% 3% 1%
Florida St. 38% 18% 29% 14% 6% 2% 1%
SMU 32% 16% 24% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Syracuse 16% 8% 12% 6% 3% 1%
Pittsburgh 23% 12% 17% 8% 3% 2% 1%
Stanford 41% 18% 31% 15% 5% 2% 1%
Notre Dame 60% 16% 50% 20% 6% 2% 1%
California 10% 6% 6% 3% 1%
Wake Forest 8% 5% 6% 2% 1%
Georgia Tech 7% 5% 4% 1% 1%
Boston College 3% 2% 2% 1%