Preseason Rankings
Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#21
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.7#216
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.5% 7.9% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 16.3% 34.7% 9.6%
Top 4 Seed 33.5% 34.7% 9.6%
Top 6 Seed 49.5% 34.7% 9.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.2% 77.5% 50.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.7% 75.1% 48.6%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 7.5
.500 or above 89.8% 91.0% 67.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.0% 76.1% 53.2%
Conference Champion 12.1% 12.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.6% 4.4%
First Four2.6% 2.5% 4.0%
First Round74.8% 76.2% 48.4%
Second Round52.7% 54.1% 26.2%
Sweet Sixteen27.2% 28.1% 8.9%
Elite Eight13.4% 13.8% 4.8%
Final Four6.5% 6.8% 0.7%
Championship Game3.1% 3.3% 0.1%
National Champion1.5% 1.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.2 - 4.42.2 - 4.4
Quad 1b3.0 - 2.25.2 - 6.7
Quad 26.2 - 2.311.3 - 9.0
Quad 35.3 - 0.816.6 - 9.8
Quad 44.5 - 0.121.1 - 9.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 188   Austin Peay W 81-66 95%    
  Nov 11, 2018 193   Hartford W 78-63 95%    
  Nov 16, 2018 189   Long Beach St. W 84-69 95%    
  Nov 19, 2018 43   Arizona St. W 79-76 61%    
  Nov 21, 2018 59   St. Mary's W 71-66 67%    
  Nov 26, 2018 346   Alcorn St. W 84-56 99.6%   
  Nov 30, 2018 107   @ Dayton W 75-66 72%    
  Dec 04, 2018 304   McNeese St. W 84-63 98%    
  Dec 08, 2018 18   Clemson L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 15, 2018 36   Cincinnati W 67-65 68%    
  Dec 19, 2018 97   Wofford W 76-67 84%    
  Dec 22, 2018 138   Wright St. W 75-64 83%    
  Dec 29, 2018 63   BYU W 73-68 75%    
  Jan 08, 2019 61   @ South Carolina W 72-67 54%    
  Jan 12, 2019 118   Mississippi W 80-70 86%    
  Jan 15, 2019 16   Florida L 70-71 59%    
  Jan 19, 2019 83   @ Vanderbilt W 74-67 64%    
  Jan 22, 2019 3   @ Kentucky L 71-76 24%    
  Jan 26, 2019 13   Auburn L 77-78 56%    
  Jan 29, 2019 39   @ Alabama W 72-69 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 118   @ Mississippi W 80-70 72%    
  Feb 06, 2019 46   LSU W 76-72 71%    
  Feb 09, 2019 3   Kentucky L 71-76 43%    
  Feb 12, 2019 39   Alabama W 72-69 69%    
  Feb 16, 2019 94   @ Arkansas W 78-70 66%    
  Feb 20, 2019 80   @ Georgia W 69-62 64%    
  Feb 23, 2019 61   South Carolina W 72-67 73%    
  Feb 26, 2019 51   Missouri W 71-67 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 13   @ Auburn L 77-78 37%    
  Mar 05, 2019 9   @ Tennessee L 68-71 32%    
  Mar 09, 2019 64   Texas A&M W 74-69 75%    
Projected Record 21.1 - 9.9 10.7 - 7.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.5 3.1 1.3 0.4 12.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.6 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.5 4.1 1.3 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.0 1.1 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 4.1 1.4 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 4.2 1.8 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.9 4.6 6.3 8.4 10.1 11.4 12.1 11.6 9.9 8.9 5.8 3.5 1.3 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 86.2% 3.1    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 60.5% 3.5    1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 32.7% 2.9    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.7% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 7.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.5% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.8% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.9% 99.8% 18.2% 81.7% 2.8 1.3 2.9 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 9.9% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.7 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.6% 99.0% 12.0% 87.0% 4.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-7 12.1% 97.6% 6.8% 90.7% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.4%
10-8 11.4% 88.9% 5.3% 83.6% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 88.3%
9-9 10.1% 73.7% 4.1% 69.6% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 72.6%
8-10 8.4% 48.0% 3.7% 44.3% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 46.0%
7-11 6.3% 18.3% 3.8% 14.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 15.1%
6-12 4.6% 6.5% 3.1% 3.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 3.4%
5-13 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0%
4-14 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 76.2% 9.4% 66.8% 5.3 7.5 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.1 7.9 6.8 6.3 5.4 4.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.8 73.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7