IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.9	#265
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	91.5	#2
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.1	#167

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.0	#335

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.6%	7.7%	1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	13.9	15.0

.500 or above	32.3%	64.0%	31.7%
.500 or above in Conference	38.4%	58.8%	38.0%
Conference Champion	1.4%	4.2%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	11.4%	0.3%	11.6%

First Four	0.4%	0.8%	0.4%
First Round	1.4%	7.7%	1.3%
Second Round	0.1%	2.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.9	0.0 - 1.9
Quad 1b	0.1 - 2.0	0.2 - 3.9
Quad 2	0.6 - 3.1	0.8 - 7.0
Quad 3	2.0 - 4.1	2.8 - 11.1
Quad 4	7.9 - 4.2	10.7 - 15.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	18	@ Clemson	L	72-91	2%
Nov 16, 2018	26	@ Texas	L	71-89	3%
Nov 20, 2018	176	@ James Madison	L	82-87	23%
Nov 24, 2018	250	@ South Florida	L	79-80	37%
Nov 27, 2018	255	High Point	L	81-82	59%
Dec 01, 2018	272	Mercer	W	81-80	61%
Dec 15, 2018	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	90-87	70%
Dec 18, 2018	254	@ Campbell	L	85-86	39%
Dec 29, 2018	333	Longwood	W	88-82	77%
Jan 03, 2019	97	@ Wofford	L	80-90	12%
Jan 05, 2019	123	@ Furman	L	82-91	16%
Jan 10, 2019	153	East Tennessee St.	L	78-85	39%
Jan 12, 2019	307	Western Carolina	W	86-84	67%
Jan 17, 2019	322	@ Samford	W	93-89	53%
Jan 19, 2019	314	@ Chattanooga	W	82-79	50%
Jan 24, 2019	86	@ UNC Greensboro	L	73-85	11%
Jan 26, 2019	310	VMI	W	86-83	68%
Jan 31, 2019	123	Furman	L	82-91	31%
Feb 02, 2019	97	Wofford	L	80-90	27%
Feb 09, 2019	272	@ Mercer	W	81-80	40%
Feb 14, 2019	153	@ East Tennessee St.	L	78-85	22%
Feb 16, 2019	307	@ Western Carolina	W	86-84	49%
Feb 21, 2019	314	Chattanooga	W	82-79	70%
Feb 23, 2019	322	Samford	W	93-89	72%
Feb 28, 2019	86	UNC Greensboro	L	73-85	24%
Mar 02, 2019	310	@ VMI	W	86-83	49%
Projected Record						10.7 - 15.3	7.6 - 10.4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.7	1.5	0.9	0.3	0.0				3.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.8	2.2	2.8	1.4	0.2	0.0					7.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.1	3.9	3.9	1.4	0.3							12.1	4th
5th							0.1	1.1	4.5	6.0	3.8	1.0	0.1								16.6	5th
6th						0.1	1.9	5.2	5.7	2.8	0.4	0.1									16.1	6th
7th					0.2	2.3	5.5	4.7	1.6	0.2	0.0										14.5	7th
8th				0.3	2.2	5.1	3.7	0.9	0.0												12.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.5	2.6	3.8	2.1	0.5	0.0													9.6	9th
10th	0.3	1.0	2.1	2.1	1.0	0.2	0.0														6.6	10th

Total	0.3	1.0	2.7	4.9	7.2	9.8	11.6	11.9	12.2	11.1	8.9	7.4	5.0	3.3	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	93.2%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-3	59.1%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0
14-4	30.8%	0.5		0.2	0.3	0.1
13-5	4.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.4%	1.4		0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		3.6%	3.6%		13.0														0.0				0.0
17-1	0.1%		32.4%	32.4%		11.2												0.0	0.0			0.0		0.0
16-2	0.2%		16.4%	10.3%	6.1%	12.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2		6.8%
15-3	0.7%		13.8%	13.8%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6
14-4	1.6%		14.5%	14.5%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.4
13-5	3.3%		9.4%	9.4%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.0
12-6	5.0%		4.8%	4.8%		15.1															0.0	0.1	0.1	4.8
11-7	7.4%		4.6%	4.6%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	7.1
10-8	8.9%		2.1%	2.1%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.1	8.8
9-9	11.1%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.0
8-10	12.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
7-11	11.9%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	11.9
6-12	11.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.6
5-13	9.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.8
4-14	7.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
3-15	4.9%																							4.9
2-16	2.7%																							2.7
1-17	1.0%																							1.0
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		1.6%	1.6%	0.0%	14.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	98.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%