Preseason Rankings
Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#43
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#170
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.3% 4.5% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 11.1% 11.6% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 20.0% 20.8% 5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.3% 49.7% 23.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.9% 47.3% 22.1%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.4
.500 or above 70.7% 72.4% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 57.9% 36.1%
Conference Champion 5.1% 5.3% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 4.4% 9.9%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
First Round46.3% 47.7% 21.0%
Second Round28.5% 29.5% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen12.9% 13.4% 4.1%
Elite Eight5.8% 6.0% 1.4%
Final Four2.6% 2.7% 0.3%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 33 - 112 - 11
Quad 44 - 015 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 29, 2020 218   North Florida W 87-70 95%    
  Dec 04, 2020 250   Stetson W 78-59 96%    
  Dec 08, 2020 28   Purdue W 69-68 55%    
  Dec 12, 2020 241   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-61 95%    
  Dec 16, 2020 87   Pittsburgh W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 19, 2020 297   Jacksonville W 81-60 97%    
  Dec 29, 2020 56   @ Virginia Tech L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 02, 2021 49   Clemson W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 05, 2021 23   North Carolina L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 09, 2021 48   @ North Carolina St. L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 12, 2021 101   @ Boston College W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 16, 2021 26   Louisville W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 19, 2021 35   @ Syracuse L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 24, 2021 70   Notre Dame W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 26, 2021 16   @ Florida St. L 72-79 29%    
  Jan 30, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 01, 2021 5   Duke L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 06, 2021 56   Virginia Tech W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 08, 2021 23   @ North Carolina L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 14, 2021 70   @ Notre Dame L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 20, 2021 63   Georgia Tech W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 23, 2021 16   Florida St. L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 27, 2021 49   @ Clemson L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 01, 2021 6   @ Virginia L 56-65 23%    
  Mar 05, 2021 101   Boston College W 79-70 77%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.8 2.8 0.5 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.5 1.3 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 3.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.0 0.4 0.1 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.0 4.7 6.2 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.5 10.1 9.4 8.4 6.8 4.9 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 95.6% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 87.1% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 69.7% 1.6    0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 41.7% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 14.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.2% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 3.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.9% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.8% 99.3% 10.8% 88.5% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 8.4% 97.5% 5.1% 92.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.4%
12-8 9.4% 89.9% 4.2% 85.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 89.4%
11-9 10.1% 70.7% 2.7% 68.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.9 69.9%
10-10 10.5% 43.5% 0.9% 42.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.9 43.0%
9-11 9.9% 13.8% 0.7% 13.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.6 13.2%
8-12 8.9% 2.6% 0.3% 2.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.6 2.3%
7-13 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
6-14 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 6.2
5-15 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 48.3% 4.5% 43.8% 7.1 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 6.2 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 51.7 45.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0