IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.4	#317
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	81.0	#9
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.0	#232

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-8.3	#340

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	15.0	14.6

.500 or above	6.8%	10.4%	2.4%
.500 or above in Conference	5.6%	7.5%	3.3%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	49.7%	43.5%	57.2%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 11
Quad 4	5 - 6	6 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 03, 2020	309	N.C. A&T	W	88-87	55%
Dec 19, 2020	320	@ Longwood	L	77-80	40%
Dec 22, 2020	341	Presbyterian	W	84-76	77%
Dec 30, 2020	84	UNC Greensboro	L	73-87	11%
Jan 02, 2021	182	@ Western Carolina	L	82-94	15%
Jan 06, 2021	183	@ Mercer	L	75-87	15%
Jan 09, 2021	158	Chattanooga	L	79-86	26%
Jan 13, 2021	83	Furman	L	74-88	11%
Jan 16, 2021	276	@ VMI	L	79-86	28%
Jan 20, 2021	183	Mercer	L	78-84	31%
Jan 23, 2021	301	@ Samford	L	87-92	32%
Jan 27, 2021	148	Wofford	L	75-83	25%
Jan 30, 2021	142	@ East Tennessee St.	L	70-85	11%
Feb 03, 2021	84	@ UNC Greensboro	L	70-90	5%
Feb 06, 2021	182	Western Carolina	L	85-91	31%
Feb 10, 2021	142	East Tennessee St.	L	73-82	24%
Feb 13, 2021	158	@ Chattanooga	L	76-89	13%
Feb 17, 2021	148	@ Wofford	L	72-86	12%
Feb 20, 2021	276	VMI	L	82-83	47%
Feb 24, 2021	83	@ Furman	L	71-91	5%
Feb 27, 2021	301	Samford	W	90-89	52%
Projected Record						6 - 15	4 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0							0.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0							1.7	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	0.9	1.2	0.5	0.1									2.9	5th
6th						0.1	0.6	1.9	2.0	0.9	0.1										5.6	6th
7th					0.1	1.6	3.4	3.0	1.0	0.1											9.2	7th
8th			0.0	0.9	4.1	5.9	3.9	1.1	0.1												16.1	8th
9th		0.6	3.9	8.0	7.8	4.1	1.0	0.0													25.4	9th
10th	5.9	11.5	11.1	6.6	2.4	0.4	0.0														37.9	10th

Total	5.9	12.0	15.0	15.5	14.4	12.1	9.0	6.4	4.1	2.7	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0						Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	30.6%	0.0		0.0	0.0
14-4	55.9%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
13-5	6.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.6%	0.0		0.0			0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.0%		5.6%	5.6%		13.0														0.0				0.0
14-4	0.1%		16.2%	16.2%		13.1														0.0	0.0			0.1
13-5	0.2%		21.0%	21.0%		13.9														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
12-6	0.3%		6.5%	6.5%		13.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
11-7	0.8%		3.9%	3.9%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8
10-8	1.5%		1.4%	1.4%		14.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5
9-9	2.7%		0.8%	0.8%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.6
8-10	4.1%		0.8%	0.8%		15.6																0.0	0.0	4.0
7-11	6.4%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	6.3
6-12	9.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
5-13	12.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
4-14	14.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	14.4
3-15	15.5%																							15.5
2-16	15.0%																							15.0
1-17	12.0%																							12.0
0-18	5.9%																							5.9

Total	100%		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	14.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	99.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.2%