Preseason Rankings
N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#270
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#144
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#281
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#246
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 7.6% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.2 14.8
.500 or above 20.4% 62.2% 19.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 74.9% 38.9%
Conference Champion 3.1% 14.3% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.6% 2.1% 11.8%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round2.2% 7.2% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 29   @ Iowa L 67-88 2%    
  Nov 13, 2022 51   @ Iowa St. L 58-77 5%    
  Nov 19, 2022 237   Gardner-Webb L 67-70 42%    
  Nov 20, 2022 181   @ Wofford L 64-72 24%    
  Nov 30, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro L 62-66 35%    
  Dec 13, 2022 5   @ Houston L 53-80 1%    
  Dec 17, 2022 241   Texas Southern L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 18, 2022 190   Norfolk St. L 67-72 34%    
  Dec 21, 2022 148   @ UTEP L 63-73 21%    
  Dec 29, 2022 199   @ Northeastern L 62-70 27%    
  Dec 31, 2022 141   @ Hofstra L 70-80 20%    
  Jan 04, 2023 151   College of Charleston L 78-82 39%    
  Jan 07, 2023 179   UNC Wilmington L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 11, 2023 302   @ Elon L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 14, 2023 258   Stony Brook W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 16, 2023 328   @ Hampton W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 19, 2023 118   Towson L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 21, 2023 295   @ William & Mary L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 26, 2023 201   Drexel L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 28, 2023 260   Monmouth W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 02, 2023 179   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 08, 2023 302   Elon W 72-66 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 258   @ Stony Brook L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 13, 2023 260   @ Monmouth L 67-71 39%    
  Feb 18, 2023 118   @ Towson L 63-75 16%    
  Feb 23, 2023 153   Delaware L 69-73 39%    
  Feb 25, 2023 328   Hampton W 77-69 73%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 3.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.4 1.2 0.1 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.4 1.9 0.1 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.5 1.8 0.2 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 12th
13th 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.1 13th
Total 0.5 1.7 3.3 5.6 7.6 9.2 10.4 10.8 11.1 9.8 8.4 7.0 5.5 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 86.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 62.0% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-4 31.2% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 42.0% 42.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 31.1% 27.8% 3.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.6%
16-2 0.7% 23.7% 22.7% 1.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4%
15-3 1.5% 15.6% 15.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
14-4 2.5% 12.7% 12.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
13-5 3.9% 7.8% 7.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
12-6 5.5% 6.0% 6.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.2
11-7 7.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.7
10-8 8.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.2
9-9 9.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.6
8-10 11.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.0
7-11 10.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 10.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.4
5-13 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
4-14 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 5.6% 5.6
2-16 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%