Preseason Rankings
Utah
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#84
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#225
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#97
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 5.2% 5.4% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 20.4% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.1% 16.7% 2.4%
Average Seed 8.4 8.4 11.0
.500 or above 62.7% 64.4% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 40.8% 12.7%
Conference Champion 2.8% 2.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 8.5% 24.5%
First Four3.0% 3.1% 1.1%
First Round18.3% 18.9% 3.3%
Second Round9.6% 9.9% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.6% 0.5%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 8
Quad 23 - 45 - 12
Quad 34 - 29 - 13
Quad 47 - 116 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 304   LIU Brooklyn W 85-67 96%    
  Nov 11, 2022 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-58 94%    
  Nov 14, 2022 324   Idaho St. W 77-57 96%    
  Nov 17, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. W 71-61 82%    
  Nov 21, 2022 97   Georgia Tech W 71-70 54%    
  Nov 26, 2022 357   St. Thomas W 84-55 99%    
  Dec 01, 2022 12   Arizona L 75-81 32%    
  Dec 04, 2022 71   @ Washington St. L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 08, 2022 209   Jacksonville St. W 75-63 84%    
  Dec 13, 2022 249   Texas San Antonio W 79-65 87%    
  Dec 17, 2022 55   @ BYU L 69-75 32%    
  Dec 21, 2022 19   TCU L 65-72 28%    
  Dec 29, 2022 128   @ California W 66-65 54%    
  Dec 31, 2022 57   @ Stanford L 66-72 33%    
  Jan 05, 2023 204   Oregon St. W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 07, 2023 26   Oregon L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 12, 2023 8   @ UCLA L 63-76 15%    
  Jan 14, 2023 37   @ USC L 65-73 26%    
  Jan 19, 2023 71   Washington St. W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 21, 2023 89   Washington W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 26, 2023 204   @ Oregon St. W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 28, 2023 26   @ Oregon L 68-77 24%    
  Feb 02, 2023 57   Stanford W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 05, 2023 128   California W 69-62 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 59   Colorado W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 16, 2023 12   @ Arizona L 72-84 18%    
  Feb 18, 2023 61   @ Arizona St. L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 24, 2023 8   UCLA L 66-73 29%    
  Feb 25, 2023 37   USC L 68-70 44%    
  Mar 04, 2023 59   @ Colorado L 67-72 33%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 2.4 0.7 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.1 2.6 0.7 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.1 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.6 11th
12th 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 12th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.2 5.8 7.4 9.1 9.9 10.3 9.8 9.4 8.1 6.8 5.3 3.8 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 94.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 74.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 45.4% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.9% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.7% 98.7% 15.7% 83.0% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
15-5 2.8% 94.4% 14.0% 80.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.5%
14-6 3.8% 82.7% 10.3% 72.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 80.7%
13-7 5.3% 67.3% 9.5% 57.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 63.9%
12-8 6.8% 41.0% 7.1% 33.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.0 36.5%
11-9 8.1% 23.6% 5.5% 18.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.2 19.2%
10-10 9.4% 11.9% 4.5% 7.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 7.7%
9-11 9.8% 4.4% 3.3% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 1.1%
8-12 10.3% 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.1 0.1%
7-13 9.9% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6 0.0%
6-14 9.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.0
5-15 7.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.3
4-16 5.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.8
3-17 4.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-18 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
1-19 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 19.7% 4.4% 15.4% 8.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 80.3 16.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 71.4 28.6