Preseason Rankings
Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#22
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.7#67
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.2% 4.3% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 10.0% 10.1% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 22.9% 23.1% 3.7%
Top 6 Seed 36.0% 36.2% 8.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.0% 64.3% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.8% 61.1% 26.8%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.4
.500 or above 79.7% 80.0% 44.6%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 67.4% 39.8%
Conference Champion 11.0% 11.1% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.5% 11.8%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 3.5%
First Round62.0% 62.3% 26.0%
Second Round43.0% 43.3% 13.5%
Sweet Sixteen21.8% 21.9% 5.5%
Elite Eight10.4% 10.5% 2.4%
Final Four4.6% 4.7% 0.9%
Championship Game2.1% 2.2% 0.0%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 26 - 312 - 12
Quad 33 - 115 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 326   Eastern Illinois W 85-60 99%    
  Nov 08, 2024 316   SIU Edwardsville W 86-62 99%    
  Nov 13, 2024 146   Oakland W 82-67 91%    
  Nov 20, 2024 5   Alabama L 82-88 31%    
  Nov 23, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-56 99.7%   
  Nov 25, 2024 267   Arkansas Little Rock W 88-67 97%    
  Nov 28, 2024 15   Arkansas L 79-80 46%    
  Dec 06, 2024 60   @ Northwestern W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 10, 2024 44   Wisconsin W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 14   Tennessee W 76-75 55%    
  Dec 22, 2024 58   Missouri W 77-74 62%    
  Dec 29, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 84-58 99%    
  Jan 02, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 05, 2025 62   @ Washington W 81-80 53%    
  Jan 08, 2025 67   Penn St. W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 46   USC W 80-74 68%    
  Jan 14, 2025 20   @ Indiana L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 19, 2025 24   @ Michigan St. L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 23, 2025 38   Maryland W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 26, 2025 60   Northwestern W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 51   @ Nebraska W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 02, 2025 31   Ohio St. W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 29   @ Rutgers L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 11, 2025 23   UCLA W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 24   Michigan St. W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 18, 2025 44   @ Wisconsin L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 4   Duke L 72-78 32%    
  Feb 25, 2025 45   Iowa W 86-81 67%    
  Mar 02, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 75-77 43%    
  Mar 07, 2025 12   Purdue W 76-75 51%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.2 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.2 0.1 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.1 6.0 7.6 8.6 9.6 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.5 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.7% 0.9    0.8 0.0
18-2 96.0% 1.9    1.7 0.3 0.0
17-3 79.5% 2.8    2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 54.3% 2.8    1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 24.6% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.7 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.8% 48.2% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.6% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 2.1 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.2% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.8 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 6.9% 99.9% 18.3% 81.6% 3.8 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 8.5% 99.5% 14.0% 85.5% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 9.7% 98.2% 8.4% 89.8% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.0%
12-8 10.0% 93.3% 5.3% 88.0% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.7 93.0%
11-9 10.4% 80.7% 3.4% 77.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.0 80.0%
10-10 9.6% 60.5% 2.4% 58.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.8 59.6%
9-11 8.6% 31.2% 0.7% 30.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.9 30.7%
8-12 7.6% 10.7% 0.6% 10.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8 10.2%
7-13 6.0% 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 1.1%
6-14 4.1% 4.1
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.0% 8.2% 55.8% 5.9 4.2 5.8 6.5 6.4 6.8 6.3 7.0 6.4 5.3 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 36.0 60.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.9 16.1