Preseason Rankings
Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#235
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.9#327
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#315
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#131
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 15.1% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 67.7% 83.6% 61.1%
.500 or above in Conference 69.8% 80.6% 65.4%
Conference Champion 14.2% 20.9% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.7% 4.1%
First Four2.1% 1.7% 2.3%
First Round9.6% 14.4% 7.6%
Second Round0.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Away) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 53 - 6
Quad 415 - 717 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 182   @ Harvard L 61-67 29%    
  Nov 09, 2024 133   @ Richmond L 59-68 21%    
  Nov 15, 2024 321   Army W 63-55 78%    
  Nov 19, 2024 313   Dartmouth W 65-57 75%    
  Nov 23, 2024 305   New Hampshire W 70-63 73%    
  Nov 30, 2024 264   @ Lehigh L 66-68 45%    
  Dec 06, 2024 270   Mount St. Mary's W 68-63 66%    
  Dec 08, 2024 331   @ Manhattan W 67-64 61%    
  Dec 17, 2024 260   @ Stony Brook L 64-66 45%    
  Dec 21, 2024 272   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-70 66%    
  Dec 29, 2024 318   Binghamton W 68-60 76%    
  Jan 03, 2025 210   @ Iona L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 05, 2025 212   Quinnipiac W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 12, 2025 237   Fairfield W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 16, 2025 214   @ St. Peter's L 57-61 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 241   Rider W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 308   @ Niagara W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 297   @ Canisius W 64-63 51%    
  Jan 31, 2025 339   Siena W 67-56 81%    
  Feb 06, 2025 237   @ Fairfield L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 210   Iona W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 14, 2025 339   @ Siena W 64-59 64%    
  Feb 16, 2025 243   @ Merrimack L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 21, 2025 297   Canisius W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 23, 2025 308   Niagara W 68-61 72%    
  Feb 28, 2025 334   @ Sacred Heart W 69-65 63%    
  Mar 02, 2025 214   St. Peter's W 60-58 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 243   Merrimack W 63-60 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 270   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-66 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.7 3.3 2.2 1.0 0.3 14.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.2 0.9 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.4 0.9 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.2 1.2 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 1.3 0.1 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.4 10.3 10.4 10.0 8.9 7.6 5.8 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.7% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 96.8% 2.2    2.0 0.3
17-3 84.9% 3.3    2.5 0.7 0.0
16-4 63.6% 3.7    2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 33.5% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 11.3% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 9.1 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 56.5% 54.9% 1.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5%
19-1 1.0% 48.1% 48.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.3% 40.6% 40.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4
17-3 3.9% 31.2% 31.2% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 2.7
16-4 5.8% 27.9% 27.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 4.2
15-5 7.6% 22.0% 22.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 5.9
14-6 8.9% 16.7% 16.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 7.4
13-7 10.0% 11.8% 11.8% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 8.8
12-8 10.4% 7.4% 7.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 9.6
11-9 10.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.8
10-10 9.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
9-11 8.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 8.1
8-12 6.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.7
7-13 5.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 5.2
6-14 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-15 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 89.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 10.7 25.0 12.5 35.0 27.5