Preseason Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.1#308
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.8% 3.9% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 9.0% 9.3% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 21.2% 22.0% 5.4%
Top 6 Seed 33.8% 34.9% 12.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.0% 64.3% 35.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.0% 61.4% 33.4%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.5
.500 or above 82.3% 83.7% 54.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.8% 67.9% 43.1%
Conference Champion 10.5% 10.8% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.3% 9.4%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
First Round60.7% 62.0% 32.9%
Second Round41.6% 42.7% 18.5%
Sweet Sixteen20.4% 21.1% 7.5%
Elite Eight9.9% 10.2% 2.8%
Final Four4.6% 4.7% 1.1%
Championship Game2.0% 2.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.2%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 10
Quad 34 - 115 - 11
Quad 44 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 216   Monmouth W 77-59 95%    
  Nov 07, 2024 308   Niagara W 79-56 98%    
  Nov 12, 2024 2   Kansas L 67-74 28%    
  Nov 16, 2024 265   Bowling Green W 78-58 97%    
  Nov 19, 2024 138   Samford W 82-68 89%    
  Nov 25, 2024 79   Colorado W 70-65 67%    
  Dec 04, 2024 76   @ Minnesota W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 07, 2024 51   Nebraska W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 17, 2024 146   Oakland W 73-62 83%    
  Dec 21, 2024 97   Florida Atlantic W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 30, 2024 311   Western Michigan W 81-58 98%    
  Jan 03, 2025 31   @ Ohio St. L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 09, 2025 62   Washington W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 12, 2025 60   @ Northwestern W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 15, 2025 67   Penn St. W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 19, 2025 22   Illinois W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 29   Rutgers W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 28, 2025 76   Minnesota W 72-64 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 46   @ USC L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 23   @ UCLA L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 34   Oregon W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 20   Indiana W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 22   @ Illinois L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 18, 2025 12   Purdue W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 21, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 38   @ Maryland L 63-65 45%    
  Mar 02, 2025 44   Wisconsin W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 06, 2025 45   @ Iowa L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 09, 2025 30   Michigan W 71-67 62%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.8 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.7 1.4 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.2 0.9 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.3 0.1 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 4.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.4 5.9 7.5 8.9 9.5 10.5 10.3 9.7 8.4 7.0 5.1 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.8% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 95.7% 1.7    1.4 0.2 0.0
17-3 80.4% 2.7    2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 54.9% 2.8    1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 23.9% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 6.4 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 52.3% 47.7% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.4% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 2.1 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.1% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 2.9 0.6 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.0% 99.9% 17.6% 82.4% 3.8 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 8.4% 99.7% 13.1% 86.6% 5.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 9.7% 98.3% 8.3% 90.0% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 98.1%
12-8 10.3% 92.7% 4.3% 88.4% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 92.4%
11-9 10.5% 79.8% 2.7% 77.1% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 79.3%
10-10 9.5% 60.0% 1.7% 58.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.8 59.3%
9-11 8.9% 27.1% 0.8% 26.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 26.6%
8-12 7.5% 8.1% 0.3% 7.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 7.8%
7-13 5.9% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 1.1%
6-14 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.4 0.1%
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 63.0% 7.3% 55.7% 6.1 3.8 5.2 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.1 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.0 4.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 37.0 60.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.9 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 59.5 40.5