Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#234
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#288
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#194
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#267
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 14.5% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 47.7% 59.6% 33.7%
.500 or above in Conference 61.3% 68.5% 52.9%
Conference Champion 14.3% 18.1% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 6.7% 12.8%
First Four2.5% 2.2% 2.8%
First Round10.7% 13.5% 7.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 412 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 193   Illinois St. W 66-65 54%    
  Nov 11, 2024 278   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 65-66 47%    
  Nov 13, 2024 98   @ Santa Clara L 67-79 13%    
  Nov 18, 2024 140   @ Southern Illinois L 62-70 24%    
  Nov 26, 2024 138   @ Samford L 74-82 24%    
  Nov 27, 2024 351   West Georgia W 75-66 79%    
  Nov 28, 2024 151   Utah Valley L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 04, 2024 179   @ Weber St. L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 07, 2024 226   Northern Colorado W 76-73 60%    
  Dec 10, 2024 72   @ Butler L 65-79 11%    
  Dec 15, 2024 311   Western Michigan W 75-67 75%    
  Dec 23, 2024 278   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 02, 2025 201   St. Thomas W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 302   Nebraska Omaha W 74-67 71%    
  Jan 09, 2025 225   @ Oral Roberts L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 317   @ Denver W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 16, 2025 205   UMKC W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 18, 2025 274   @ South Dakota L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   North Dakota W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 178   South Dakota St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 201   @ St. Thomas L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 06, 2025 205   @ UMKC L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 302   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 225   Oral Roberts W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 317   Denver W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 178   @ South Dakota St. L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 263   @ North Dakota L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 274   South Dakota W 76-71 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.9 3.9 2.6 1.3 0.3 14.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.5 1.7 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.2 1.5 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.3 4.0 1.1 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.3 7.1 9.4 11.1 12.0 12.3 11.2 9.2 7.5 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
14-2 94.9% 2.6    2.3 0.3 0.0
13-3 79.8% 3.9    2.8 1.1 0.1
12-4 51.7% 3.9    1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0
11-5 20.4% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 9.0 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 54.2% 53.4% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7%
15-1 1.3% 50.2% 50.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
14-2 2.7% 39.8% 39.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6
13-3 4.9% 34.5% 34.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 3.2
12-4 7.5% 26.3% 26.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 5.5
11-5 9.2% 19.7% 19.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 7.4
10-6 11.2% 15.0% 15.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 9.5
9-7 12.3% 9.6% 9.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 11.1
8-8 12.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.3
7-9 11.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 10.6
6-10 9.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
5-11 7.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 7.0
4-12 5.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-13 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-14 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
1-15 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.3 4.3 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%