IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Oregon St.
Pac-12
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.7	#115
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.3	#291
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.5	#107

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.2	#132

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	0.8%	1.2%	0.3%
Top 6 Seed	1.9%	2.8%	0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.0%	14.7%	5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	10.1%	13.6%	5.1%
Average Seed	9.0	8.9	9.6

.500 or above	28.3%	37.2%	15.4%
.500 or above in Conference	20.1%	24.7%	13.5%
Conference Champion	1.1%	1.5%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	25.5%	20.9%	32.0%

First Four	1.9%	2.4%	1.3%
First Round	10.0%	13.5%	5.0%
Second Round	4.6%	6.5%	1.9%
Sweet Sixteen	1.3%	1.9%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
Final Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 5	0 - 5
Quad 1b	1 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 2	3 - 5	4 - 13
Quad 3	4 - 3	8 - 15
Quad 4	3 - 0	11 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	112	Colorado St.	W	75-72	59%
Dec 02, 2020	129	@ Washington St.	L	72-73	46%
Dec 05, 2020	169	Wyoming	W	71-64	74%
Dec 10, 2020	263	Portland	W	77-64	87%
Dec 16, 2020	153	Texas San Antonio	W	81-75	71%
Dec 20, 2020	57	USC	L	69-72	40%
Dec 23, 2020	125	Santa Clara	W	76-72	65%
Mar 08, 2021	107	California	W	68-66	58%
Mar 08, 2021	31	Stanford	L	66-71	32%
Mar 08, 2021	50	@ Colorado	L	65-74	22%
Mar 08, 2021	67	@ Utah	L	66-74	26%
Mar 08, 2021	38	Arizona	L	69-73	36%
Mar 08, 2021	25	Arizona St.	L	73-80	29%
Mar 08, 2021	21	@ Oregon	L	62-75	14%
Mar 08, 2021	27	@ UCLA	L	62-74	16%
Mar 08, 2021	57	@ USC	L	66-75	24%
Mar 08, 2021	68	Washington	L	70-72	45%
Mar 08, 2021	129	Washington St.	W	75-70	65%
Mar 09, 2021	38	@ Arizona	L	66-76	21%
Mar 09, 2021	25	@ Arizona St.	L	70-83	16%
Mar 09, 2021	50	Colorado	L	68-71	41%
Mar 09, 2021	67	Utah	L	69-71	45%
Mar 09, 2021	107	@ California	L	65-69	39%
Mar 09, 2021	31	@ Stanford	L	63-74	19%
Mar 09, 2021	21	Oregon	L	65-72	28%
Projected Record						10 - 15	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0			1.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				1.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.8	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0						2.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0							3.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.3	2.0	1.0	0.2	0.0								4.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.7	2.6	1.3	0.2	0.0									6.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	2.1	3.2	1.9	0.2	0.0										7.9	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.6	4.2	2.1	0.4	0.0											10.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	1.0	3.3	4.2	2.7	0.4	0.0	0.0											11.6	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	1.8	4.7	4.9	2.5	0.5	0.0													14.9	10th
11th		0.1	1.2	3.5	5.8	5.0	2.0	0.4	0.0														18.1	11th
12th	1.2	3.5	4.8	4.6	2.7	0.8	0.1	0.0															17.7	12th

Total	1.2	3.6	6.1	8.5	10.4	11.5	11.0	10.2	9.7	7.8	6.5	4.7	3.3	2.5	1.5	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0				Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	92.1%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	84.4%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-4	65.3%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	36.7%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
14-6	8.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	2.0%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.1%	1.1		0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%		100.0%	4.3%	95.7%	1.8		0.0	0.0	0.0																100.0%
18-2	0.1%		100.0%	31.7%	68.3%	2.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															100.0%
17-3	0.3%		100.0%	28.8%	71.2%	3.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0												100.0%
16-4	0.5%		100.0%	11.0%	89.0%	4.7		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0										100.0%
15-5	0.8%		99.0%	14.6%	84.4%	5.8		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		98.9%
14-6	1.5%		96.4%	14.4%	82.0%	7.6				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.1		95.8%
13-7	2.5%		87.9%	5.6%	82.3%	9.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.3		87.2%
12-8	3.3%		70.4%	3.0%	67.4%	9.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.0				1.0		69.5%
11-9	4.7%		41.2%	2.5%	38.7%	10.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0			2.8		39.7%
10-10	6.5%		17.1%	1.0%	16.2%	11.3							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0			5.4		16.3%
9-11	7.8%		3.7%	0.6%	3.1%	11.9								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.5		3.2%
8-12	9.7%		0.9%	0.6%	0.3%	12.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		9.6		0.3%
7-13	10.2%		0.2%	0.2%		12.2													0.0			0.0		10.2
6-14	11.0%		0.1%	0.1%		14.2															0.0		0.0	11.0
5-15	11.5%		0.1%	0.1%		15.9																0.0	0.0	11.5
4-16	10.4%																							10.4
3-17	8.5%																							8.5
2-18	6.1%																							6.1
1-19	3.6%																							3.6
0-20	1.2%																							1.2

Total	100%		11.0%	1.0%	10.0%	9.0		0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.8	1.3	1.5	1.8	1.8	1.5	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	89.0		10.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%