Preseason Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#62
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.4#51
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#67
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 2.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 7.0% 7.6% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 14.0% 15.0% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.1% 34.0% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.7% 32.5% 12.5%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.5
.500 or above 42.6% 45.0% 18.8%
.500 or above in Conference 34.3% 35.8% 18.8%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 10.6% 22.7%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 2.7%
First Round30.2% 32.0% 12.3%
Second Round18.3% 19.4% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 8.7% 2.7%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.8% 0.8%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 90.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 13
Quad 33 - 110 - 14
Quad 42 - 012 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 190   Drexel W 83-69 91%    
  Nov 28, 2020 276   VMI W 86-67 96%    
  Dec 02, 2020 99   Virginia Commonwealth W 77-70 74%    
  Dec 06, 2020 44   Seton Hall W 79-77 56%    
  Dec 08, 2020 56   @ Virginia Tech L 69-72 38%    
  Dec 13, 2020 19   @ Michigan L 72-80 24%    
  Dec 23, 2020 13   Illinois L 72-75 41%    
  Dec 30, 2020 24   Indiana L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 03, 2021 8   Wisconsin L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 06, 2021 17   @ Ohio St. L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 09, 2021 19   Michigan L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 12, 2021 33   Rutgers W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 17, 2021 28   @ Purdue L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 20, 2021 13   @ Illinois L 69-78 22%    
  Jan 23, 2021 80   Northwestern W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 30, 2021 113   @ Nebraska W 82-80 57%    
  Feb 02, 2021 8   @ Wisconsin L 64-74 21%    
  Feb 05, 2021 39   Maryland W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 09, 2021 10   @ Michigan St. L 73-82 22%    
  Feb 14, 2021 113   Nebraska W 85-77 75%    
  Feb 18, 2021 17   Ohio St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 21, 2021 9   @ Iowa L 76-86 22%    
  Feb 26, 2021 28   Purdue L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 03, 2021 37   Minnesota W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 07, 2021 39   @ Maryland L 71-76 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 13 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 1.7 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 3.8 1.1 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 3.9 1.3 0.1 10.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 3.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.8 13th
14th 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.2 14th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.5 6.6 8.2 10.2 10.8 11.0 10.6 9.3 7.7 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 95.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 87.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 49.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 27.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 1.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.1% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.7% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.9% 99.5% 9.3% 90.1% 4.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 4.4% 99.5% 8.3% 91.3% 5.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 6.2% 97.6% 4.2% 93.4% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.5%
11-9 7.7% 86.0% 3.2% 82.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 85.6%
10-10 9.3% 58.6% 1.4% 57.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.9 58.0%
9-11 10.6% 23.5% 0.6% 22.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.1 23.0%
8-12 11.0% 4.2% 0.4% 3.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5 3.8%
7-13 10.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.1%
6-14 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 8.2% 8.2
4-16 6.6% 6.6
3-17 4.5% 4.5
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 32.1% 2.1% 30.0% 7.2 0.8 1.3 2.4 2.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 67.9 30.7%