Preseason Rankings
West Virginia
Big 12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#7
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#101
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.3% 4.8% 1.2%
#1 Seed 15.4% 17.0% 6.2%
Top 2 Seed 28.0% 30.7% 13.2%
Top 4 Seed 47.6% 51.1% 27.4%
Top 6 Seed 61.8% 65.7% 39.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.6% 84.9% 63.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.0% 81.7% 58.9%
Average Seed 4.5 4.4 5.7
.500 or above 87.3% 90.5% 69.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 80.0% 63.0%
Conference Champion 18.9% 20.4% 10.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.8% 4.3%
First Four3.3% 3.1% 4.9%
First Round80.3% 83.7% 61.1%
Second Round63.5% 67.0% 43.5%
Sweet Sixteen39.2% 41.8% 24.1%
Elite Eight22.3% 24.0% 12.2%
Final Four12.2% 13.4% 5.6%
Championship Game6.2% 6.8% 2.7%
National Champion3.3% 3.7% 1.1%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Neutral) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 34 - 016 - 9
Quad 42 - 018 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 100   South Dakota St. W 81-70 85%    
  Dec 02, 2020 199   Youngstown St. W 84-63 98%    
  Dec 06, 2020 88   @ Georgetown W 80-73 72%    
  Dec 09, 2020 212   Robert Morris W 80-58 98%    
  Dec 13, 2020 53   Richmond W 79-70 78%    
  Dec 18, 2020 71   Iowa St. W 83-72 82%    
  Dec 22, 2020 4   @ Kansas L 70-74 35%    
  Dec 29, 2020 116   Buffalo W 88-73 91%    
  Jan 02, 2021 29   @ Oklahoma W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 04, 2021 42   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 09, 2021 15   Texas W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 12, 2021 2   @ Baylor L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 16, 2021 69   TCU W 74-63 81%    
  Jan 19, 2021 42   Oklahoma St. W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 23, 2021 89   @ Kansas St. W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 25, 2021 14   Texas Tech W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 30, 2021 22   Florida W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 02, 2021 71   @ Iowa St. W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 06, 2021 4   Kansas W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 09, 2021 14   @ Texas Tech L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 13, 2021 29   Oklahoma W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 15, 2021 2   Baylor W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 20, 2021 15   @ Texas L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 22, 2021 69   @ TCU W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 27, 2021 89   Kansas St. W 76-63 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.5 5.3 4.0 1.7 0.6 18.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 4.1 5.7 4.6 1.6 0.2 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.0 5.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.1 4.6 1.5 0.2 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 3.4 1.0 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.3 5.7 7.9 9.4 11.1 12.0 11.6 10.4 9.5 6.9 4.2 1.7 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 95.4% 4.0    3.6 0.4
15-3 77.2% 5.3    3.8 1.4 0.1
14-4 47.3% 4.5    2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 21.1% 2.2    0.7 1.1 0.4 0.1
12-6 4.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 12.7 5.0 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 67.3% 32.7% 1.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 54.5% 45.5% 1.2 1.5 0.3 100.0%
16-2 4.2% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 1.3 3.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.9% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.5 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.5% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 1.9 3.8 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.4% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 2.7 1.7 3.3 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.6% 99.9% 15.7% 84.2% 3.8 0.5 1.7 3.0 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 12.0% 99.8% 9.7% 90.1% 5.1 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 11.1% 97.1% 9.2% 87.9% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 96.9%
9-9 9.4% 85.9% 6.4% 79.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 84.9%
8-10 7.9% 55.2% 2.9% 52.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.6 53.8%
7-11 5.7% 21.1% 2.5% 18.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5 19.1%
6-12 4.3% 3.9% 1.3% 2.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 2.6%
5-13 2.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.7%
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.6% 16.4% 65.2% 4.5 15.4 12.6 10.3 9.2 7.8 6.4 4.9 3.9 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 18.4 78.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 94.6 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 83.6 16.4