Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#140
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#189
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#127
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#180
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 36.4% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 12.8 14.1
.500 or above 79.0% 92.9% 72.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 95.4% 85.7%
Conference Champion 32.9% 46.2% 26.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four1.8% 1.1% 2.1%
First Round25.4% 35.9% 20.4%
Second Round3.7% 7.1% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 2.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 414 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 116   @ Grand Canyon L 67-72 32%    
  Nov 13, 2022 188   @ Long Beach St. L 77-78 47%    
  Nov 15, 2022 26   @ Oregon L 67-81 10%    
  Nov 20, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 78-69 77%    
  Nov 25, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro L 65-66 49%    
  Nov 26, 2022 221   Quinnipiac W 77-73 63%    
  Nov 27, 2022 137   Middle Tennessee L 71-72 49%    
  Nov 30, 2022 177   @ Southern Utah L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 08, 2022 357   St. Thomas W 82-58 97%    
  Dec 10, 2022 307   Nebraska Omaha W 84-71 86%    
  Dec 20, 2022 12   @ Arizona L 71-88 8%    
  Dec 29, 2022 342   Idaho W 84-67 92%    
  Dec 31, 2022 185   Eastern Washington W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 05, 2023 213   @ Northern Colorado W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 07, 2023 320   @ Northern Arizona W 74-65 75%    
  Jan 12, 2023 324   Idaho St. W 75-60 88%    
  Jan 14, 2023 208   Weber St. W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 16, 2023 342   @ Idaho W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 21, 2023 170   @ Montana L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 26, 2023 278   @ Portland St. W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 28, 2023 275   @ Sacramento St. W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 02, 2023 320   Northern Arizona W 77-62 87%    
  Feb 04, 2023 213   Northern Colorado W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 09, 2023 208   @ Weber St. W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 324   @ Idaho St. W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 170   Montana W 72-67 64%    
  Feb 23, 2023 275   Sacramento St. W 74-63 80%    
  Feb 25, 2023 278   Portland St. W 80-69 81%    
  Feb 27, 2023 185   @ Eastern Washington L 76-77 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.1 8.1 8.8 6.2 2.6 32.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.2 6.4 6.4 3.3 0.7 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.6 5.4 3.9 1.1 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.4 5.8 7.7 9.7 11.0 12.3 12.6 11.4 9.6 6.2 2.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
17-1 100.0% 6.2    6.0 0.2
16-2 92.6% 8.8    7.3 1.5 0.0
15-3 70.7% 8.1    5.2 2.6 0.2
14-4 40.9% 5.1    2.3 2.1 0.7 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 23.9 7.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.6% 76.6% 71.6% 5.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 17.6%
17-1 6.2% 62.7% 60.7% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 5.1%
16-2 9.6% 51.5% 50.9% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.6 1.2%
15-3 11.4% 38.5% 38.5% 0.1% 13.5 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 7.0 0.1%
14-4 12.6% 30.1% 30.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.2 8.8
13-5 12.3% 23.2% 23.2% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 9.5
12-6 11.0% 16.8% 16.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 9.2
11-7 9.7% 12.1% 12.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 8.5
10-8 7.7% 8.9% 8.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.0
9-9 5.8% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.5
8-10 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.2
7-11 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9
6-12 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.1% 25.8% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.1 6.0 6.2 4.5 3.1 73.9 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.9 23.2 13.9 23.2 26.5 13.2