Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#84
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#317
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 3.7% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.9% 37.1% 23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 6.4% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.2 10.9 12.2
.500 or above 87.5% 92.6% 76.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 90.1% 79.7%
Conference Champion 39.2% 43.8% 28.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.3% 4.1%
First Four1.9% 2.1% 1.5%
First Round32.1% 36.2% 23.0%
Second Round10.8% 12.9% 6.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 4.6% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Neutral) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 37 - 39 - 8
Quad 48 - 117 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 156   Charlotte W 63-57 69%    
  Nov 16, 2023 104   Furman W 71-69 58%    
  Nov 25, 2023 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 76-55 97%    
  Nov 30, 2023 25   @ Florida Atlantic L 64-73 20%    
  Dec 01, 2023 80   College of Charleston L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 05, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 79-52 99%    
  Dec 09, 2023 93   Grand Canyon W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 13, 2023 262   Tennessee St. W 79-64 90%    
  Dec 20, 2023 164   @ Utah Valley W 70-67 60%    
  Dec 30, 2023 12   Alabama L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 06, 2024 172   @ Western Kentucky W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 10, 2024 221   Jacksonville St. W 71-59 85%    
  Jan 14, 2024 120   @ Louisiana Tech W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 18, 2024 196   Florida International W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 20, 2024 117   Sam Houston St. W 66-60 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 221   @ Jacksonville St. W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 01, 2024 167   @ New Mexico St. W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 03, 2024 155   @ UTEP W 66-63 58%    
  Feb 08, 2024 137   Middle Tennessee W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 10, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech W 69-62 70%    
  Feb 17, 2024 117   @ Sam Houston St. W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 22, 2024 196   @ Florida International W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 29, 2024 167   New Mexico St. W 74-65 77%    
  Mar 02, 2024 155   UTEP W 69-60 75%    
  Mar 05, 2024 137   @ Middle Tennessee W 67-66 55%    
  Mar 09, 2024 172   Western Kentucky W 71-62 77%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.3 9.9 9.6 6.3 2.5 39.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.5 5.5 2.2 0.4 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.2 1.0 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.5 5.4 7.3 10.1 11.8 13.6 13.3 12.1 10.0 6.3 2.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
15-1 100.0% 6.3    6.2 0.1
14-2 96.2% 9.6    8.6 1.0 0.0
13-3 81.7% 9.9    7.2 2.5 0.1
12-4 54.9% 7.3    3.6 3.1 0.6 0.0
11-5 22.9% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.2% 39.2 28.9 8.2 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.5% 92.1% 71.6% 20.6% 6.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 72.3%
15-1 6.3% 81.4% 64.1% 17.3% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 48.1%
14-2 10.0% 64.3% 54.0% 10.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 22.4%
13-3 12.1% 46.1% 41.7% 4.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.5 7.6%
12-4 13.3% 34.8% 33.7% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.7 1.7%
11-5 13.6% 26.6% 26.3% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.3%
10-6 11.8% 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.5 0.0%
9-7 10.1% 14.7% 14.7% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 8.6
8-8 7.3% 11.3% 11.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 6.5
7-9 5.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5.0
6-10 3.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.3
5-11 2.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.0
4-12 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-13 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-14 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.9% 29.6% 3.3% 11.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 2.3 7.1 9.0 4.8 2.3 1.2 0.8 67.1 4.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 98.1% 2.3 26.8 33.1 26.5 9.0 0.7 1.9