IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.7	#266
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.5	#188
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.1	#301

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.6	#222

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.8%	6.7%	3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.9	15.4

.500 or above	41.3%	47.8%	23.1%
.500 or above in Conference	48.6%	52.9%	36.7%
Conference Champion	6.6%	7.8%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	11.7%	9.6%	17.7%

First Four	1.4%	1.4%	1.2%
First Round	5.0%	6.0%	2.5%
Second Round	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 8	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	327	Holy Cross	W	74-67	74%
Nov 11, 2023	129	@ Richmond	L	61-72	15%
Nov 13, 2023	261	@ American	L	62-65	38%
Nov 20, 2023	323	Central Michigan	W	71-67	62%
Nov 26, 2023	318	Albany	W	73-67	71%
Dec 01, 2023	230	Rider	W	68-67	53%
Dec 03, 2023	250	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	63-67	36%
Dec 06, 2023	208	Bryant	L	76-77	47%
Dec 09, 2023	78	@ St. Bonaventure	L	59-75	9%
Dec 19, 2023	157	Cornell	L	75-78	38%
Dec 22, 2023	185	@ Brown	L	66-74	24%
Dec 30, 2023	192	@ Massachusetts	L	69-77	26%
Jan 05, 2024	257	Fairfield	W	66-64	58%
Jan 12, 2024	269	@ Canisius	L	68-71	40%
Jan 14, 2024	258	@ Niagara	L	62-66	38%
Jan 19, 2024	232	Quinnipiac	W	73-72	52%
Jan 21, 2024	272	@ Marist	L	64-67	41%
Jan 26, 2024	148	Iona	L	69-73	36%
Jan 28, 2024	279	St. Peter's	W	64-60	62%
Feb 02, 2024	230	@ Rider	L	65-70	33%
Feb 04, 2024	250	Mount St. Mary's	W	66-64	56%
Feb 08, 2024	272	Marist	W	67-64	60%
Feb 10, 2024	325	@ Manhattan	W	68-67	52%
Feb 16, 2024	279	@ St. Peter's	L	61-63	42%
Feb 18, 2024	269	Canisius	W	71-68	60%
Feb 25, 2024	257	@ Fairfield	L	63-67	38%
Mar 01, 2024	325	Manhattan	W	71-64	71%
Mar 03, 2024	232	@ Quinnipiac	L	70-75	33%
Mar 07, 2024	258	Niagara	W	65-63	58%
Mar 09, 2024	148	@ Iona	L	66-76	20%
Projected Record						13 - 17	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	1.0	1.5	1.6	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.0		6.6	1st
2nd												0.1	0.7	2.2	2.6	2.0	0.8	0.2	0.0				8.5	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	2.8	3.1	1.6	0.4	0.0						8.9	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	3.6	3.5	1.3	0.2	0.0							9.7	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	3.8	3.6	1.1	0.1	0.0								9.7	5th
6th								0.1	1.1	4.1	4.0	1.1	0.1										10.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.0	3.6	4.0	1.1	0.1											9.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.3	3.5	3.6	1.2	0.1												9.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.6	3.3	3.3	1.1	0.1													9.6	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.9	3.1	2.6	0.8	0.1	0.0													9.3	10th
11th	0.2	0.5	1.3	2.0	2.0	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0														7.6	11th

Total	0.2	0.5	1.5	2.7	4.1	6.0	7.7	8.7	9.5	10.5	10.1	9.3	8.2	6.9	5.4	3.9	2.5	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.0			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
18-2	98.2%	0.7		0.7	0.1
17-3	87.1%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
16-4	65.5%	1.6		1.1	0.5	0.0	0.0
15-5	39.6%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
14-6	17.8%	1.0		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
13-7	3.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.6%	6.6		4.1	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		70.2%	70.2%		11.9									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.3%		57.6%	57.6%		12.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.1
18-2	0.7%		46.1%	46.1%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.4
17-3	1.4%		34.6%	34.6%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.9
16-4	2.5%		27.8%	27.8%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	1.8
15-5	3.9%		21.4%	21.4%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	3.1
14-6	5.4%		15.6%	15.6%		15.1														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	4.5
13-7	6.9%		10.4%	10.4%		15.4															0.1	0.3	0.4	6.2
12-8	8.2%		7.3%	7.3%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	7.6
11-9	9.3%		4.3%	4.3%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	8.9
10-10	10.1%		2.8%	2.8%		15.9																0.0	0.3	9.8
9-11	10.5%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.3
8-12	9.5%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	9.4
7-13	8.7%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.6
6-14	7.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	7.7
5-15	6.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.0
4-16	4.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.1
3-17	2.7%																							2.7
2-18	1.5%																							1.5
1-19	0.5%																							0.5
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.8%	5.8%	0.0%	14.9									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.6	2.4	94.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%