Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#171
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.0#327
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#271
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.7% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.7
.500 or above 56.0% 63.6% 36.4%
.500 or above in Conference 54.3% 59.4% 41.0%
Conference Champion 5.4% 6.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.0% 6.9%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round5.4% 6.5% 2.8%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 224   Queens W 72-66 72%    
  Nov 16, 2023 324   Chicago St. W 70-57 87%    
  Nov 21, 2023 121   James Madison L 67-70 40%    
  Nov 28, 2023 122   @ Indiana St. L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 02, 2023 102   Saint Louis L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 05, 2023 59   Oklahoma St. L 60-66 30%    
  Dec 12, 2023 236   Austin Peay W 66-59 73%    
  Dec 16, 2023 95   @ Wichita St. L 59-67 25%    
  Dec 19, 2023 201   North Dakota St. W 68-63 66%    
  Dec 22, 2023 344   Southern Indiana W 75-60 90%    
  Dec 30, 2023 244   Illinois-Chicago W 70-62 74%    
  Jan 02, 2024 128   Belmont W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 06, 2024 209   @ Illinois St. L 62-63 47%    
  Jan 10, 2024 310   @ Valparaiso W 66-61 67%    
  Jan 13, 2024 70   Drake L 61-66 35%    
  Jan 17, 2024 100   Bradley L 61-63 46%    
  Jan 20, 2024 123   @ Northern Iowa L 62-68 33%    
  Jan 24, 2024 310   Valparaiso W 69-58 82%    
  Jan 27, 2024 154   @ Murray St. L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 31, 2024 143   Missouri St. W 60-59 55%    
  Feb 03, 2024 244   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 07, 2024 70   @ Drake L 58-69 19%    
  Feb 10, 2024 209   Illinois St. W 65-60 66%    
  Feb 14, 2024 128   @ Belmont L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 122   Indiana St. W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 21, 2024 154   Murray St. W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 25, 2024 329   @ Evansville W 69-62 71%    
  Feb 28, 2024 100   @ Bradley L 58-66 27%    
  Mar 03, 2024 123   Northern Iowa W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.1 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 3.3 0.7 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 2.5 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.5 8.1 9.6 10.5 10.4 10.5 9.3 7.7 6.0 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.9% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 80.4% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 52.2% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.8% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 93.7% 66.2% 27.5% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.3%
19-1 0.3% 68.3% 39.3% 28.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 47.7%
18-2 0.8% 44.4% 32.4% 12.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 17.8%
17-3 1.6% 33.1% 29.1% 4.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 5.6%
16-4 2.9% 20.6% 20.0% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.7%
15-5 4.7% 14.6% 14.5% 0.1% 12.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.0 0.2%
14-6 6.0% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0%
13-7 7.7% 8.4% 8.4% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.0
12-8 9.3% 6.9% 6.9% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.7
11-9 10.5% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.1
10-10 10.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.1
9-11 10.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.3
8-12 9.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.4
7-13 8.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.0
6-14 6.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.4
5-15 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-16 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.7% 5.4% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 94.3 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.1 25.0 46.9 25.0 3.1