Preseason Rankings
Tulane
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#99
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.4#3
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#69
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#145
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 11.2% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.2% 5.6% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 11.4
.500 or above 74.0% 76.4% 48.5%
.500 or above in Conference 55.7% 57.4% 38.1%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.1% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 4.3% 10.4%
First Four2.0% 2.1% 0.8%
First Round9.6% 10.2% 3.9%
Second Round3.9% 4.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 91.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 35 - 38 - 11
Quad 48 - 116 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 284   Nicholls St. W 90-76 91%    
  Nov 09, 2023 337   Northwestern St. W 87-69 96%    
  Nov 17, 2023 252   Sacramento St. W 79-66 87%    
  Nov 20, 2023 100   Bradley W 75-74 51%    
  Nov 29, 2023 326   Prairie View W 85-68 93%    
  Dec 03, 2023 162   @ Fordham W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 09, 2023 37   Mississippi St. L 68-75 28%    
  Dec 14, 2023 104   Furman W 84-80 62%    
  Dec 16, 2023 321   Southern W 89-72 92%    
  Dec 22, 2023 139   George Mason W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 03, 2024 178   Rice W 88-80 75%    
  Jan 06, 2024 90   @ North Texas L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 11, 2024 25   Florida Atlantic L 77-82 34%    
  Jan 14, 2024 233   @ Tulsa W 82-77 67%    
  Jan 17, 2024 77   @ UAB L 81-86 33%    
  Jan 21, 2024 27   Memphis L 82-87 34%    
  Jan 24, 2024 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 85-79 70%    
  Jan 27, 2024 156   Charlotte W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 01, 2024 101   @ SMU L 79-82 41%    
  Feb 04, 2024 138   Temple W 79-73 68%    
  Feb 11, 2024 27   @ Memphis L 79-90 19%    
  Feb 15, 2024 101   SMU W 82-79 61%    
  Feb 18, 2024 146   @ East Carolina W 79-78 50%    
  Feb 25, 2024 77   UAB W 84-83 53%    
  Feb 28, 2024 90   North Texas W 66-64 57%    
  Mar 02, 2024 25   @ Florida Atlantic L 74-85 18%    
  Mar 05, 2024 145   @ South Florida W 79-78 50%    
  Mar 08, 2024 95   Wichita St. W 77-74 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.1 0.1 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 4.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.9 6.2 8.8 10.1 11.1 11.9 11.5 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 90.4% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 67.1% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.1
14-4 29.2% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 51.1% 48.9% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 96.0% 37.1% 58.9% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.6%
16-2 1.2% 89.4% 23.4% 65.9% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 86.1%
15-3 2.3% 70.0% 21.3% 48.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 61.9%
14-4 4.2% 48.3% 18.2% 30.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 36.8%
13-5 6.1% 29.3% 13.6% 15.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 18.2%
12-6 8.1% 13.6% 9.0% 4.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.0 5.0%
11-7 10.0% 8.4% 7.0% 1.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.2 1.5%
10-8 11.5% 5.2% 5.1% 0.2% 12.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.2%
9-9 11.9% 3.8% 3.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.5
8-10 11.1% 2.3% 2.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
7-11 10.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.9
6-12 8.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.7
5-13 6.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.5% 5.6% 4.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 89.5 5.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.3 6.8 56.8 36.4