Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#160
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#289
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#206
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#132
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.9% 35.6% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.7 12.6 13.8
.500 or above 70.1% 90.7% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 93.0% 82.1%
Conference Champion 27.6% 43.1% 26.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.3% 1.5%
First Four1.9% 1.1% 2.0%
First Round22.1% 35.1% 21.0%
Second Round2.9% 6.9% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 2.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 7.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 411 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2023 26   @ St. Mary's L 53-68 8%    
  Nov 17, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 66-64 57%    
  Nov 18, 2023 68   Yale L 62-69 25%    
  Nov 19, 2023 110   Colgate L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 05, 2023 164   @ Utah Valley L 67-70 41%    
  Dec 09, 2023 334   Cal Poly W 68-54 89%    
  Dec 13, 2023 79   @ Nevada L 62-71 22%    
  Dec 16, 2023 163   @ Wyoming L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 28, 2023 181   Montana W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 30, 2023 225   Montana St. W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 03, 2024 151   South Dakota St. W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 06, 2024 175   @ Oral Roberts L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 11, 2024 252   @ Sacramento St. W 64-62 58%    
  Jan 13, 2024 211   @ Portland St. L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 18, 2024 169   Eastern Washington W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 20, 2024 354   Idaho W 75-58 92%    
  Jan 22, 2024 181   @ Montana L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 27, 2024 290   Idaho St. W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 01, 2024 231   @ Northern Arizona W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 251   @ Northern Colorado W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 08, 2024 211   Portland St. W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 10, 2024 252   Sacramento St. W 67-59 75%    
  Feb 15, 2024 354   @ Idaho W 72-61 81%    
  Feb 17, 2024 169   @ Eastern Washington L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 24, 2024 290   @ Idaho St. W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 29, 2024 251   Northern Colorado W 75-67 75%    
  Mar 02, 2024 231   Northern Arizona W 72-65 72%    
  Mar 04, 2024 225   @ Montana St. W 66-65 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 6.1 7.0 6.0 3.4 1.0 27.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.4 4.4 1.5 0.2 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.9 5.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.2 1.2 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.4 6.3 8.0 9.9 11.2 12.2 11.8 10.8 8.6 6.1 3.4 1.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.4 0.0
16-2 97.0% 6.0    5.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 82.0% 7.0    5.2 1.7 0.1
14-4 56.1% 6.1    3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 26.9% 3.2    1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 7.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.6% 27.6 19.5 6.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 78.5% 73.7% 4.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18.2%
17-1 3.4% 64.3% 63.0% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.2 3.4%
16-2 6.1% 56.0% 55.7% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.7%
15-3 8.6% 43.8% 43.8% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.8 0.1%
14-4 10.8% 35.0% 35.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 7.0
13-5 11.8% 25.9% 25.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 8.7
12-6 12.2% 19.1% 19.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 9.8
11-7 11.2% 14.9% 14.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 9.5
10-8 9.9% 9.2% 9.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 9.0
9-9 8.0% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 7.4
8-10 6.3% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.1
7-11 4.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.9% 22.8% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.4 5.3 5.6 4.2 3.0 77.1 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.9 24.2 48.5 15.2 12.1