Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#110
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#333
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#128
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#110
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 20.0% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 13.1
.500 or above 78.0% 83.1% 60.9%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 80.8% 66.5%
Conference Champion 23.1% 25.5% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.3% 5.6%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round17.9% 19.7% 11.9%
Second Round4.1% 4.8% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Neutral) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 37 - 59 - 9
Quad 48 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 242   Valparaiso W 72-64 77%    
  Nov 09, 2024 127   @ Seattle L 65-66 44%    
  Nov 16, 2024 97   Florida Atlantic L 68-70 43%    
  Nov 17, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston L 71-73 42%    
  Nov 22, 2024 156   Louisiana W 70-67 62%    
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 76-49 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 312   N.C. A&T W 76-61 90%    
  Dec 21, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 02, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 04, 2025 197   Middle Tennessee W 68-60 76%    
  Jan 09, 2025 119   @ Sam Houston St. L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 108   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 152   UTEP W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 161   New Mexico St. W 69-62 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 202   @ Jacksonville St. W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 108   Louisiana Tech W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 119   Sam Houston St. W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 161   @ New Mexico St. W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 152   @ UTEP W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 275   Florida International W 77-65 84%    
  Feb 27, 2025 202   Jacksonville St. W 69-60 77%    
  Mar 02, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 79-72 73%    
  Mar 06, 2025 197   @ Middle Tennessee W 65-63 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 74-77 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.6 6.0 4.3 2.3 0.8 23.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 4.8 6.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.1 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.9 3.8 1.0 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.3 9.0 10.7 11.4 11.5 11.0 9.3 7.1 4.5 2.3 0.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.2 0.0
16-2 96.1% 4.3    4.0 0.4
15-3 84.3% 6.0    4.6 1.3 0.1
14-4 60.3% 5.6    3.2 2.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.0% 3.1    1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 8.1% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.1% 23.1 15.9 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 79.2% 63.1% 16.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 43.7%
17-1 2.3% 67.1% 56.9% 10.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 23.7%
16-2 4.5% 48.9% 45.3% 3.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 6.6%
15-3 7.1% 39.5% 38.5% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 4.3 1.6%
14-4 9.3% 32.2% 32.1% 0.2% 12.4 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.3 0.2%
13-5 11.0% 22.1% 22.1% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 8.5 0.0%
12-6 11.5% 17.4% 17.4% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 9.5
11-7 11.4% 13.3% 13.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.9
10-8 10.7% 8.6% 8.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.8
9-9 9.0% 6.8% 6.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.4
8-10 7.3% 4.3% 4.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.0
7-11 5.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.5
6-12 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.1% 17.5% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.2 5.8 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 81.9 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.7 10.9 17.5 16.2 27.1 15.3 7.0 4.4 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 64.1% 5.4 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 59.6% 6.6 21.3 19.1 19.1