Preseason Rankings
Texas A&M
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#261
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 4.5% 6.5% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 10.8% 14.9% 5.3%
Top 4 Seed 24.8% 32.4% 14.9%
Top 6 Seed 38.8% 48.4% 26.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.3% 75.1% 52.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.8% 72.8% 50.3%
Average Seed 5.8 5.4 6.5
.500 or above 77.0% 85.9% 65.5%
.500 or above in Conference 63.6% 70.5% 54.6%
Conference Champion 8.6% 11.0% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 2.7% 6.2%
First Four4.8% 4.4% 5.4%
First Round62.9% 72.9% 49.9%
Second Round44.3% 53.0% 32.8%
Sweet Sixteen23.3% 29.4% 15.3%
Elite Eight11.1% 14.5% 6.8%
Final Four5.2% 6.9% 2.9%
Championship Game2.4% 3.2% 1.3%
National Champion1.1% 1.4% 0.6%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 10
Quad 25 - 312 - 12
Quad 33 - 115 - 13
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 71   @ Central Florida W 72-70 57%    
  Nov 08, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-53 99.7%   
  Nov 11, 2024 283   Lamar W 83-61 98%    
  Nov 15, 2024 31   Ohio St. W 72-68 64%    
  Nov 20, 2024 248   Southern W 79-59 96%    
  Nov 26, 2024 34   Oregon W 72-70 56%    
  Nov 27, 2024 13   Creighton L 70-72 43%    
  Nov 30, 2024 47   San Diego St. W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 03, 2024 41   Wake Forest W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 08, 2024 21   Texas Tech W 71-70 50%    
  Dec 14, 2024 12   Purdue L 70-72 41%    
  Dec 20, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 91-61 99%    
  Dec 28, 2024 184   Abilene Christian W 80-63 92%    
  Jan 04, 2025 17   Texas W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 08, 2025 55   @ Oklahoma W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 5   Alabama L 78-80 41%    
  Jan 14, 2025 16   @ Kentucky L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 54   LSU W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 22, 2025 40   @ Mississippi L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 17   @ Texas L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 28, 2025 55   Oklahoma W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 58   @ Missouri W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 61   Georgia W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 15   Arkansas W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 18, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 14   Tennessee W 72-70 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 89   Vanderbilt W 75-66 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 25   @ Florida L 76-78 42%    
  Mar 04, 2025 10   Auburn L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 54   @ LSU W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.5 1.9 1.0 0.3 8.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.4 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.4 1.0 0.1 8.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.0 0.2 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.9 1.0 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.0 0.5 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.1 1.0 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.8 0.2 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.2 16th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.0 6.7 8.4 10.0 11.1 11.2 10.5 9.7 8.0 5.9 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 98.7% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 90.0% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 65.7% 2.5    1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.5% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 51.8% 48.2% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.1% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.9% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 2.1 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.9% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 2.8 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.0% 100.0% 14.3% 85.6% 3.9 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.7% 99.3% 9.7% 89.6% 5.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 10.5% 97.1% 5.2% 91.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 97.0%
10-8 11.2% 88.9% 3.1% 85.8% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.2 88.5%
9-9 11.1% 72.6% 1.4% 71.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 72.2%
8-10 10.0% 44.9% 0.8% 44.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.5 44.5%
7-11 8.4% 17.8% 0.5% 17.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.9 17.4%
6-12 6.7% 4.4% 0.1% 4.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 4.4%
5-13 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.5%
4-14 3.2% 3.2
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 65.3% 6.5% 58.7% 5.8 4.5 6.2 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.8 6.2 5.8 4.7 4.2 4.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 34.7 62.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 91.9 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 75.0 25.0