Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.3 202
Results Rating -3.4 226
Consistency 0.18 328
Pace 65.4 262
Improvement -5.4 348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 334 D D+ C- D D
Defense B 65 B- C+ B C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 275 C- 55% 249 -2.7 282
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 106 B- 41% 80 +3.6 37
Three Pointers 37% 274 D- 29% 341 -4.8 330
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 319 D+ -2.8 273
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 300
Second Chance D 25.6% 313 C 1.05 151 D+ 0.27 275
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 235
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 218
Turnovers C- 17.3% 229
Freethrows F+ 0.24 350 A- 78% 11 D 0.19 308
Total Offense D -6.6 334

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B+ 61% 25 D 13.2% 312
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 110 B 2.6% 31
Three Pointers C+ 86% 149 C+ 0.8% 152
Total C+ 59% 107 C 5.7% 205


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 209 C- 59% 216 +0.1 184
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 42 C+ 37% 144 +1.7 311
Three Pointers 37% 300 A- 29% 17 -4.7 15
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 68 B- -2.3 88
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 75
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 160 B- 0.98 97 C+ 0.29 111
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.9% 151
Other Turnovers A- 8.9% 24
Turnovers B 18.8% 62
Freethrows D 0.35 306 A- 68% 17 C- 0.24 260
Total Defense B +4.3 65

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 143 D+ 7.9% 301
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 94 C 4.9% 177
Three Pointers C+ 81% 107 C+ 1.3% 92
Total B 50% 59 D+ 4.7% 245

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 207 17.7 256
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 298 0.12 35
Consistency 0.13 227 0.15 342
Improvement -1.1 248 -4.3 344

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 215 203 180
Results Rating Rank 243 224 164
Conference Record 12 - 8 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 29% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round15% 28% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 30 - 60 - 7
Quad 418 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 86 @Xavier L 62 - 66 14% -4  37% 0 - 1 B- +6 F+ -9 B D+ F A+ +14 A+ C A-
 Sun, Nov 9 267 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 53% +8  99% 1 - 1 A- +16 D -4 C- C- F A+ +20 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 154 Harvard L 54 - 56 52% -1  33% 1 - 2 C- -5 F -15 D- F F A +10 A C A
 Fri, Nov 21 341 Army W 76 - 65 89% +4  69% 2 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 D- B- B- C -0 D+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 292 Lehigh W 78 - 55 79% +13  85% 3 - 2 B+ +12 C -0 B- D- B A+ +13 A+ D- F
 Fri, Dec 5 273 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 75% +2  46% 4 - 2 1 - 0 C -1 F -14 D+ C+ F A+ +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 324 Manhattan W 80 - 68 85% +3  71% 5 - 2 2 - 0 C -2 F -10 F D+ C- A- +8 C+ A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 353 @Bryant W 82 - 74 80% +6  72% 6 - 2 C- -3 C+ +3 C+ C- D- D -6 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 148 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 28% -8  19% 6 - 3 D+ -7 B +6 C+ A+ B- F -13 F D- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 227 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 67% +13  90% 7 - 3 B+ +12 D+ -4 D- B- A- A+ +17 A+ A B
 Mon, Dec 29 216 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 42% -3  11% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D+ -6 F -14 F C F A- +8 A F A
 Fri, Jan 2 230 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 44% -3  27% 7 - 5 2 - 2 D -11 F -14 F F C+ B- +3 A+ F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 242 Iona W 83 - 38 70% +21  87% 8 - 5 3 - 2 A+ +37 B- +5 D- A+ A+ A+ +32 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 289 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 58% -2  34% 9 - 5 4 - 2 C -0 B- +4 C A C- D+ -4 D+ F A-
 Sun, Jan 11 356 @Rider W 71 - 49 83% +12  93% 10 - 5 5 - 2 B +10 D -6 D+ F C+ A+ +17 A- B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 265 Fairfield W 82 - 67 74% +13  99% 11 - 5 6 - 2 B- +6 B +6 B+ A+ F C+ +1 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 174 Merrimack L 55 - 68 57% -6  5% 11 - 6 6 - 3 F+ -17 F -17 F F+ D+ C -1 D A B+
 Thu, Jan 22 208 @Siena L 50 - 69 39% -4  25% 11 - 7 6 - 4 F -19 F -17 F F B+ D+ -4 B+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 216 Quinnipiac W 71 - 64 65% +8  92% 12 - 7 7 - 4 C +1 C- -1 B D D+ B- +2 B- A F
 Fri, Jan 30 338 @Canisius W 88 - 86 OT 75% -1  49% 13 - 7 8 - 4 D+ -7 B +6 A F+ D- F -14 F F D+
 Sun, Feb 1 334 @Niagara W 58 - 46 73% +5  86% 14 - 7 9 - 4 C+ +3 F -13 F F B A+ +18 A+ C+ A
 Thu, Feb 5 356 Rider W 81 - 52 92% +18  91% 15 - 7 10 - 4 B +11 A +12 A+ C- C- B +4 B+ D+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 265 @Fairfield L 60 - 63 52% -4  10% 15 - 8 10 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -9 F C F B- +3 C A- D-
 Thu, Feb 12 174 @Merrimack L 56 - 81 34% -6  42% 15 - 9 10 - 6 F -23 F -15 F C+ C- F -10 F A+ D
 Sun, Feb 15 208 Siena L 63 - 67 62% -8  4% 15 - 10 10 - 7 D -10 F -11 F D- A+ C+ +1 F A+ B+
 Fri, Feb 20 324 @Manhattan W 84 - 70 70% +7  65% 16 - 10 11 - 7 B- +6 A- +10 B+ A B- C- -2 C+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 22 289 Sacred Heart W 65 - 63 78% -3  17% 17 - 10 12 - 7 D -8 F -16 F F A+ A- +7 B- A D
 Sun, Mar 1 230 St. Peter's L 56 - 63 67% -1  42% 17 - 11 12 - 8 D- -14 F -16 D- F C+ C+ +1 D- B A+
 Sat, Mar 7 216 Quinnipiac W 68 - 67 53%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 8 -2 D -7 A+ D+ D B +4 D- A- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- B- D- D+ 36% 44% 37% D D D C D+ C- F+ A- D B C- C+ A- B- 38% 26% 37% B B- C+ B- C+ B D A- C-
0.99 55% 41% 29% -3 -1 0.94 26% 1.0 .27 17% .24 78% .19 1.02 59% 37% 29% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.0 .29 19% .35 68% .16
Nov
3		 Xavier F+ A+ A- D- A- 31% 44% 26% F B C- D+ D+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 16% 29% 56% A A+ D+ B C A- F C+ F
0.92 75% 47% 30% +8 -4 1.10 24% 0.8 .20 27% .50 68% .34 0.98 71% 23% 24% -11 -3 0.76 31% 0.9 .28 16% .57 72% .41
Nov
9		 Dartmouth D B B+ D- C+ 33% 27% 40% F+ C- D B+ C- F F A+ F A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% F+ A+ D+ B C A+ F A- F
1.03 65% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 18% .08 80% .07 0.77 47% 33% 16% -17 +1 0.70 26% 1.0 .26 27% .53 68% .36
Nov
16		 Harvard F F B D+ F+ 42% 19% 40% C- D- D F F F B+ F+ B- A A+ A+ F+ A+ 49% 13% 38% F A B- D C A F B- F
0.86 40% 44% 32% -8 0 0.88 26% 0.7 .17 24% .31 67% .21 0.89 37% 20% 40% -9 +2 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 24% .48 78% .37
Nov
21		 Army D+ C+ A- F D- 40% 24% 36% C- D- A- D B- B- F A+ F C F D- A- D 30% 17% 53% A- D+ F+ A+ A+ C F F+ F
1.14 64% 46% 25% -1 0 1.00 39% 1.1 .42 14% .21 92% .19 0.98 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 34% 0.3 .11 18% .33 78% .26
Nov
25		 Lehigh C C+ A+ B- B 33% 25% 42% D B- D D D- B C- B C A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 38% 30% 32% B- A+ B- F D- F D A+ C+
1.15 59% 54% 36% +6 -1 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 13% .29 76% .22 0.81 50% 38% 6% -17 -1 0.66 20% 1.4 .27 13% .31 61% .19
Dec
5		 Mount St. Mary's F C D- D+ C- 34% 32% 34% D- D+ D- A+ C+ F F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A A+ 47% 11% 42% D A+ D- A C+ A+ F A+ D
0.89 56% 33% 31% -4 -2 0.91 23% 1.4 .32 27% .25 85% .21 0.78 43% 20% 26% -14 +2 0.78 34% 0.9 .29 29% .42 57% .24
Dec
7		 Manhattan F C+ B F F 35% 15% 50% C+ F C- C- D+ C- C- F D+ A- B- B D+ C- 35% 33% 33% A- C+ A A+ A+ B+ F B+ F
1.06 62% 44% 27% -3 0 0.97 36% 1.1 .38 16% .24 67% .16 0.90 50% 35% 35% -3 -2 0.92 20% 0.5 .10 19% .39 75% .29
Dec
13		 Bryant C+ A- D C+ B- 52% 25% 23% D+ C+ D C+ C- D- B+ A+ A+ D F F F F 33% 12% 55% C+ F A- A+ A+ B- D A C-
1.19 68% 33% 36% +5 0 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 16% .36 95% .35 1.08 69% 50% 41% +11 +1 1.24 21% 0.3 .07 23% .30 69% .21
Dec
16		 Georgia Tech B F+ C A B 24% 35% 41% F C+ B- A+ A+ B- D- F F F F F F F 34% 44% 22% A+ F F B+ D- A- C- D- D
1.11 46% 37% 41% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.5 .49 15% .24 50% .12 1.27 71% 45% 73% +20 -3 1.36 42% 1.0 .42 22% .32 76% .24
Dec
21		 Stony Brook D+ D+ D+ D D- 35% 23% 42% D+ D- D A+ B- A- D- A- D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 22% 31% 47% A+ A+ A- A+ A B F A+ D+
1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19 0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21
Dec
29		 Quinnipiac F D+ F F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- C+ C F F B+ F A- A+ B- B+ A 31% 33% 35% A A F C- F A F B D-
0.85 54% 25% 14% -13 +1 0.77 32% 1.1 .34 22% .17 78% .13 0.94 40% 31% 29% -10 -2 0.77 40% 1.1 .43 22% .37 65% .24
Jan
2		 St. Peter's F F B F F 42% 24% 34% D+ F F F F C+ C A+ A- B- B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A+ C F F C- F D F
0.85 33% 42% 18% -18 0 0.66 24% 0.8 .18 19% .41 87% .36 1.00 50% 20% 21% -15 0 0.71 35% 1.3 .45 17% .49 79% .39
Jan
4		 Iona B- D A+ F D- 39% 18% 43% C+ D- D A+ A+ A+ D A+ C+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C-
1.18 54% 55% 23% -6 0 0.92 29% 1.7 .50 8% .23 87% .20 0.54 53% 30% 8% -17 0 0.68 14% 0.6 .08 34% .36 53% .19
Jan
9		 Sacred Heart B- A A+ F C 40% 21% 38% D+ C C+ A+ A C- C C C D+ C- A+ D D+ 37% 11% 52% F+ D+ F D+ F A- F F F
1.20 74% 50% 28% +5 0 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 14% .26 71% .18 1.13 59% 20% 38% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.1 .38 22% .44 86% .38
Jan
11		 Rider D D+ D+ A+ C- 48% 20% 32% D+ D+ F F F C+ F A+ F A+ F A A+ B- 31% 58% 11% A+ A- A+ F B+ C+ F A+ D
1.07 56% 36% 44% +3 +1 1.11 23% 0.5 .11 14% .10 83% .09 0.74 64% 27% 0% -10 -5 0.71 9% 2.3 .20 18% .39 57% .22
Jan
17		 Fairfield B A+ B A+ A+ 27% 38% 36% F B+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+ C+ C C+ A+ A+ 30% 32% 38% A A+ C+ F F+ C- F C F
1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32 1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34
Jan
19		 Merrimack F D D- F F 41% 27% 32% D+ F F+ C- F+ D+ A A+ A+ C F F A+ F+ 39% 24% 37% A D A+ C A B+ F D+ F
0.85 50% 33% 14% -14 -1 0.73 32% 1.0 .32 20% .43 86% .37 1.05 69% 60% 20% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.0 .13 19% .51 81% .42
Jan
22		 Siena F F C+ D- F 31% 29% 39% D- F F F F B+ F A F D+ A- B F C+ 26% 53% 21% A+ B+ C+ F F D- B- F D-
0.83 44% 40% 30% -6 -2 0.86 9% 0.7 .06 13% .10 80% .08 1.14 50% 36% 40% -1 -5 0.89 28% 2.0 .55 13% .27 100% .27
Jan
24		 Quinnipiac C- A- A D- B+ 45% 28% 28% D+ B F A+ D D+ C+ B- C+ B- B B B+ B+ 51% 18% 31% F B- B- A+ A F C- D C-
1.07 67% 46% 31% +5 0 1.11 15% 1.8 .27 18% .30 75% .22 0.97 50% 30% 29% -8 +1 0.89 29% 0.7 .20 11% .30 72% .22
Jan
30		 Canisius B A+ A C- A+ 44% 25% 31% C- A D+ F F+ D- A+ A+ A+ F F D- D F 38% 13% 48% F F F F+ F D+ F A+ F
1.19 81% 50% 33% +13 0 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 18% .46 82% .38 1.16 65% 43% 36% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .36 18% .43 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Niagara F D+ C F F 31% 44% 24% F F F A+ F B C- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 44% 24% 31% B+ A+ F A+ C+ A C A B-
0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24 0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15
Feb
5		 Rider A B B A+ A+ 48% 19% 33% D+ A+ B- D- C- C- F A+ D- B A- D A+ B+ 35% 37% 28% B- B+ F B+ D+ B- A A+ A+
1.37 65% 44% 63% +19 +1 1.42 36% 0.9 .32 15% .16 100% .16 0.88 44% 41% 15% -12 -2 0.74 41% 0.8 .32 19% .19 44% .08
Feb
7		 Fairfield F+ F A+ F+ F 48% 17% 35% C F B F+ C F D+ A+ B B- F C- A+ C- 27% 21% 52% B- C A B- A- D- C+ F C-
0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24 1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19
Feb
12		 Merrimack F F F F F 47% 23% 30% C+ F F+ A+ C+ C- F C- F F F F F F 40% 14% 46% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D F A+ C-
0.85 36% 27% 21% -18 0 0.66 33% 1.4 .45 20% .26 71% .19 1.22 75% 57% 39% +13 +1 1.30 14% 0.5 .07 14% .44 64% .28
Feb
15		 Siena F D F F F 34% 28% 38% D F C- F D- A+ A+ C+ A C+ F+ F A+ F 42% 36% 22% B- F A+ A A+ B+ D A+ C+
0.97 53% 29% 21% -12 -1 0.76 30% 0.8 .23 11% .38 73% .27 1.03 68% 63% 20% +8 -2 1.16 19% 0.8 .15 20% .33 65% .21
Feb
20		 Manhattan A- B- A+ A+ A 36% 30% 34% F+ B+ C+ A+ A B- B A A- C- C- F A+ C+ 35% 26% 39% B- C+ F F F B- F B- F
1.31 65% 57% 44% +13 -1 1.26 38% 1.4 .54 14% .29 81% .24 1.09 56% 50% 22% -4 -1 0.91 35% 1.5 .55 17% .41 77% .32
Feb
22		 Sacred Heart F F F+ C- F 23% 21% 56% F F F F F A+ F D- F A- A+ F C+ B 33% 20% 47% C B- C- A+ A D D A+ B-
0.96 43% 31% 34% -5 -1 0.90 16% 0.7 .11 6% .09 67% .06 0.93 35% 60% 33% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.5 .15 16% .32 61% .19
Mar
1		 St. Peter's F F A+ F D+ 32% 36% 32% F D- C+ F F C+ F F F C+ F B B+ F+ 42% 27% 31% C D- C- A- B A+ C A+ B+
0.88 44% 50% 25% -5 -2 0.88 38% 0.3 .12 19% .23 67% .15 0.99 68% 33% 29% +1 -1 1.02 36% 0.8 .29 27% .32 60% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0 0.2 3.2 9.2 3.0 84.5
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 15.0 84.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.5% 100.0% 15.0 1.0 20.7 59.0 19.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 26.6%
Lose Out 45.8%