New Haven
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -11.2 334
Expected Predictive Rating -10.4 325
Pace 60.3 358
Improvement -0.1 187

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ #351 D+ F D F+ D+
Defense C- #256 D+ C C- C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 268 61% 114 -0.9 215
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 123 34% 297 +0.1 171
Three Pointers 41% 170 30% 327 -2.3 266
1st FG Attempt 0.96 268 -3.1 268
Second Chance 21.3% 355 0.89 330 0.19 362
Turnovers 19.5% 324
Freethrows 0.25 339 70% 251 0.17 351
Total Offense -8.6 351

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 130 61% 257 -2.1 257
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 309 38% 192 +1.6 70
Three Pointers 43% 100 35% 242 -2.1 289
1st FG Attempt 1.07 270 -2.7 270
Second Chance 28.8% 102 1.11 295 0.32 207
Turnovers 16.0% 234
Freethrows 0.27 78 76% 338 0.21 133
Total Defense -2.6 256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 264 +0.7 295
Shot Type Accuracy -2.5 265 +1.9 253
Possession Length 20.3 364 16.8 110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 320 0.18 208
Improvement +0.6 #146 -0.7 #232

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 1% 2% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 73% 88% 59%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 0% 3%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 48.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 410 - 1010 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 7 @Connecticut L 55 - 79 0% -12  0% 0 - 1 C -0 D -5 A- F B+ B +4 B C B-
 Fri, Nov 7 200 Columbia L 53 - 71 29% -16  0% 0 - 2 F -24 F -22 F D- F C- -2 F A B
 Sat, Nov 8 109 Penn St. L 43 - 87 13% -18  14% 0 - 3 F -43 F -29 F F F F -20 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 318 @Umass Lowell W 73 - 67 33% -1  42% 1 - 3 C -1 D -4 C C- F B- +4 A+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 359 Delaware St. W 65 - 52 75% +7  92% 2 - 3 D+ -5 F -11 C- F+ F B+ +6 B C+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 53 @Seton Hall L 45 - 68 2% -14  0% 2 - 4 D -10 F -14 D- D- B- C+ +1 F+ A C+
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @Boston College L 63 - 67 7% +3  73% 2 - 5 C +1 C+ +2 C+ D C- C- -2 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 315 @NJIT L 64 - 70 31% -4  4% 2 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 F D A- D+ -4 F A D+
 Mon, Dec 22 157 @Fordham L 47 - 65 10% -5  37% 2 - 7 F+ -15 F -20 D F F B- +2 D D- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 14 @Vanderbilt L 53 - 96 1% -24  0% 2 - 8 F -21 F -12 D+ F C+ F+ -10 F D+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 330 @Stonehill W 70 - 55 37% +5  53% 3 - 8 1 - 0 B- +7 C +1 B D+ C- B+ +7 B+ D D-
 Sun, Jan 4 294 @Central Connecticut St. L 61 - 72 27% -10  0% 3 - 9 1 - 1 F+ -16 D -6 F+ A F F -12 F D D+
 Thu, Jan 8 303 @Le Moyne L 47 - 73 28% -16  4% 3 - 10 1 - 2 F -31 F -24 F F F F+ -11 F+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 65 - 55 60% +10  96% 4 - 10 2 - 2 C- -4 F+ -9 B- F+ D B+ +7 A A- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 331 Wagner W 80 - 74 60% +8  97% 5 - 10 3 - 2 D+ -8 B+ +9 A+ F C- F -16 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 353 @Chicago St. W 62 - 56 49% -3  18% 6 - 10 4 - 2 D+ -5 D- -7 D C F B- +3 F+ A C+
 Fri, Jan 23 304 Mercyhurst L 57 - 61 50% +0  43% 6 - 11 4 - 3 F+ -15 F -11 C+ F+ F D+ -5 F A- C-
 Thu, Jan 29 304 @Mercyhurst L 51 - 70 28% -13  1% 6 - 12 4 - 4 F -24 F -18 F F A- F+ -9 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 81 - 69 51% +5  77% 7 - 12 5 - 4 C +1 B- +4 B F A- C- -3 C D+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 207 @LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 60 14% -7  3% 7 - 13 5 - 5 C- -5 F -13 D+ F B B+ +7 A C C
 Sat, Feb 7 353 Chicago St. L 57 - 63 71% -6  7% 7 - 14 5 - 6 F -23 F -16 D F C+ D- -8 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 294 Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 66 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 207 LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 68 31%
 Thu, Feb 19 330 Stonehill W 61 - 58 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 66 38%
 Tue, Feb 24 355 St. Francis (PA) W 72 - 66 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 331 @Wagner L 64 - 67 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 303 Le Moyne L 67 - 68 50%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 10 -11 F+ -9 D+ F D C- -3 D+ C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ C+ D+ D- D+ 35% 23% 41% D+ D+ F D- F D D- D+ F+ C- D+ C C- D+ 40% 16% 43% D D+ C+ D+ C C- B- D- C+
0.96 61% 34% 30% -3 -1 0.96 21% 0.9 .19 20% .25 70% .17 1.12 61% 38% 35% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 16% .27 76% .19
Nov
3		 Connecticut D B A+ F A 39% 33% 29% D A- F F F B+ F F F B B+ F C- A- 47% 6% 47% F+ B B+ F+ C B- D- F F
0.83 58% 50% 21% -1 -2 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 17% .25 43% .11 1.19 55% 67% 36% +2 +2 1.11 32% 1.3 .42 18% .37 85% .31
Nov
7		 Columbia F F F F F 41% 22% 37% C- F F+ D+ D- F C- A C+ C- F B- F F 52% 14% 34% D- F B+ A+ A B C A B-
0.81 45% 18% 22% -16 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .19 18% .30 81% .24 1.08 70% 33% 47% +12 +2 1.30 31% 0.6 .19 24% .28 64% .18
Nov
8		 Penn St. F D- B+ F F 36% 18% 46% C F F F F F D+ F D- F A F F C- 49% 10% 41% F D+ F F F F B- C B-
0.69 50% 43% 22% -10 0 0.82 20% 1.0 .20 31% .19 63% .12 1.40 48% 80% 43% +5 +2 1.16 40% 1.6 .63 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
10		 Umass Lowell D C B- A- C+ 45% 24% 31% D+ C C- C C- F C F D+ B- A+ D+ A+ A+ 35% 15% 50% D+ A+ D+ F F D- F F F
1.07 59% 42% 40% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .33 20% .28 67% .18 0.98 29% 43% 25% -16 +1 0.71 33% 1.5 .51 18% .48 78% .37
Nov
15		 Delaware St. F A+ C F C- 35% 20% 45% D C- D+ F F+ F A B A B+ F A+ A+ B+ 30% 36% 34% C+ B A+ F C+ D- A C- A
0.98 79% 38% 28% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.9 .25 26% .41 75% .31 0.79 63% 16% 22% -13 -3 0.72 15% 1.2 .18 17% .18 70% .13
Nov
18		 Seton Hall F D F D D 28% 28% 43% F D- F A+ D- B- F F F C+ D- A+ F F+ 41% 18% 41% C- F+ A+ D- A C+ A+ F A+
0.73 46% 23% 30% -10 -2 0.78 15% 1.2 .18 23% .17 63% .10 1.10 65% 22% 40% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.1 .27 16% .19 80% .15
Dec
6		 Boston College C+ D A+ F+ B 23% 34% 43% F C+ C+ F D C- A+ A+ A+ C- C D F F 18% 28% 55% A F D A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.01 50% 53% 26% -1 -3 0.93 28% 0.7 .19 16% .46 83% .38 1.08 57% 45% 45% +11 -2 1.20 33% 0.5 .15 24% .49 74% .36
Dec
10		 NJIT F+ D+ D- F F 47% 25% 27% C- F C F+ D A- D+ F F D+ F F A- F 30% 19% 51% D+ F A A+ A D+ F C F
0.96 54% 29% 20% -10 0 0.82 34% 0.9 .30 11% .32 58% .19 1.05 69% 63% 27% +3 0 1.07 19% 0.7 .13 17% .56 71% .40
Dec
22		 Fordham F A+ F F D 26% 30% 44% D D F F F F F F F B- F+ D A D- 40% 27% 33% B- D B- F D- A+ B+ D+ B
0.74 85% 13% 27% -5 -2 0.88 17% 0.3 .06 24% .04 50% .02 1.03 68% 46% 25% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.2 .41 24% .17 75% .12
Dec
29		 Vanderbilt F C+ D- F D- 48% 24% 28% B D+ F F+ F C+ F D+ F F+ F A+ F F 56% 7% 37% F F F+ B D+ C A+ F A
0.77 58% 31% 13% -10 0 0.81 14% 0.8 .11 19% .13 71% .09 1.40 75% 25% 43% +14 +3 1.35 39% 1.1 .43 13% .20 92% .18
Jan
2		 Stonehill C C+ F A+ B+ 36% 23% 42% D+ B F A+ D+ C- F D+ F B+ A- A+ A+ A 55% 10% 35% F B+ C+ F D D- C+ D- C-
1.06 58% 25% 45% +4 0 1.09 13% 1.8 .23 12% .16 67% .10 0.83 44% 20% 24% -15 +3 0.78 26% 1.1 .29 18% .22 75% .17
Jan
4		 Central Connecticut St. D C- D- F F 37% 12% 51% C- F+ A- A- A F F F F F C+ F+ F F 29% 23% 48% D- F C+ F D D+ A+ A- A+
1.04 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 19% .06 67% .04 1.23 57% 45% 48% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .32 15% .14 71% .10
Jan
8		 Le Moyne F D F F F 33% 19% 49% D+ F F F F F A- F F+ F+ F B A- F 37% 14% 49% C F+ D D D F F A D-
0.77 50% 13% 29% -11 0 0.79 22% 0.8 .16 21% .39 47% .19 1.19 88% 33% 29% +6 +1 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 13% .45 63% .28
Jan
10		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ A+ F C B- 46% 18% 36% B- B- F A+ F+ D A+ F B- B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 6% 58% F A B+ A A- F+ F+ D+ F+
1.04 78% 29% 36% +8 +1 1.21 13% 1.3 .17 18% .51 54% .27 0.88 53% 0% 21% -15 +2 0.75 26% 0.6 .17 14% .34 72% .24
Jan
17		 Wagner B+ A F A+ A+ 28% 15% 57% D A+ F F F C- F A+ D F F D F F 36% 20% 44% C F F A- F A+ A+ C- A
1.32 69% 14% 58% +20 0 1.41 21% 0.4 .08 15% .27 93% .25 1.22 69% 44% 45% +13 0 1.27 50% 0.9 .46 28% .16 71% .11
Jan
19		 Chicago St. D- C- F D+ F+ 41% 3% 56% B+ D A F C F C- A+ A B- C- D C D 48% 26% 26% F F+ B- A+ A C+ A+ C A
1.06 63% 0% 32% -1 +3 1.05 46% 0.8 .39 29% .34 100% .34 0.95 55% 42% 33% -1 0 1.00 26% 0.5 .13 17% .16 75% .12
Jan
23		 Mercyhurst F A A F B- 44% 23% 33% D C+ F C- F+ F C+ C- C D+ C D F F+ 48% 24% 28% F F A+ F A- C- A- F C
0.97 71% 44% 23% +2 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27 1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14
Jan
29		 Mercyhurst F D- A+ F F 38% 31% 31% F F F C- F A- A- F C F+ A+ C+ D+ A 35% 35% 29% C A- C- F F F D- F F
0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27 1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23
Jan
31		 St. Francis (PA) B- A+ F A+ B+ 36% 20% 43% D B F C+ F A- A+ B+ A+ C- D- A+ B- C+ 44% 18% 38% F C B F D+ D- F+ B- D-
1.22 81% 0% 53% +13 0 1.27 19% 1.2 .22 15% .48 78% .37 1.04 64% 11% 32% -4 +1 0.96 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 67% .21
Feb
5		 LIU Brooklyn F C- A+ F D+ 52% 22% 26% C D+ F F F B D F F+ B+ B- C A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% C A C+ C- C C B- F C-
0.87 54% 60% 17% -4 +1 0.96 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 60% .17 0.95 53% 40% 21% -9 0 0.83 34% 1.0 .34 21% .26 77% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Chicago St. F F+ F B D- 34% 5% 61% B- D F A+ F C+ F F F D- C+ F D F 26% 43% 30% A F A+ A+ A+ F C- D- D+
0.97 53% 0% 37% 0 +2 1.05 10% 1.7 .16 19% .25 67% .17 1.07 50% 55% 36% +6 -4 1.07 19% 0.3 .06 8% .28 80% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 3.9 0.8 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.9 1.6 11.0 3rd
4th 0.4 8.9 4.6 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.1 5.1 11.2 0.4 16.8 5th
6th 2.4 13.1 3.3 0.0 18.8 6th
7th 2.5 12.7 8.2 0.2 23.5 7th
8th 0.5 3.7 3.0 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 1.3 7.2 18.3 26.9 25.0 14.9 5.6 0.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.8% 0.8
11-5 5.6% 5.6
10-6 14.9% 14.9
9-7 25.0% 25.0
8-8 26.9% 26.9
7-9 18.3% 18.3
6-10 7.2% 7.2
5-11 1.3% 1.3
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8%
Lose Out 1.3%