Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.5 201
Expected Predictive Rating -3.3 220
Pace 72.5 80
Improvement -2.3 278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #203 C- C C C- B-
Defense C- #216 D+ D- B+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 166 59% 153 +0.6 156
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 292 36% 241 -2.3 295
Three Pointers 46% 83 30% 313 +0.0 175
1st FG Attempt 0.98 224 -1.8 225
Second Chance 29.8% 203 1.04 149 0.31 177
Turnovers 17.2% 198
Freethrows 0.29 237 72% 186 0.21 225
Total Offense -1.3 203

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 141 58% 171 -0.7 200
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 214 42% 310 -0.3 208
Three Pointers 41% 188 37% 326 -1.8 273
1st FG Attempt 1.07 274 -2.8 275
Second Chance 33.5% 301 1.14 324 0.38 329
Turnovers 19.8% 38
Freethrows 0.34 284 69% 40 0.23 235
Total Defense -1.2 216

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 92 +0.3 222
Shot Type Accuracy -2.4 262 +2.4 278
Possession Length 16.0 58 17.7 255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 13 0.19 227
Improvement -1.2 #263 -1.1 #257

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 10% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 80% 88% 62%
.500 or above in Conference 63% 75% 35%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round9% 9% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Away) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 414 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 18 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 2% -18  4% 0 - 1 F -18 F+ -8 D B+ F+ F+ -10 D- D- C-
 Wed, Nov 12 126 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 24% -8  0% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 F F F B +6 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 296 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 58% +13  99% 1 - 2 A +19 A +13 B A+ C B+ +7 C F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 267 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 73% +4  78% 2 - 2 C+ +2 D+ -2 D- A C B +4 C+ D+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 212 Wofford W 93 - 83 63% +2  61% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B +7 C+ B A- C- -3 B- C- C
 Sat, Nov 29 275 Boston University W 74 - 65 75% -2  25% 4 - 2 C -0 C- -1 F A+ F C+ +1 D D- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 299 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 79% +8  95% 5 - 2 1 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +8 A- A+ F D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 242 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 46% +2  54% 5 - 3 1 - 1 C- -4 D -5 F+ D+ F+ C+ +2 F B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 283 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 56% +6  75% 6 - 3 C +0 D+ -4 C F+ C+ B- +4 D+ C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 143 Oakland L 77 - 82 47% -2  20% 6 - 4 1 - 2 D+ -7 D -6 D- C- B- C -1 C+ B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 156 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 52% -4  6% 6 - 5 D- -14 D- -6 C D+ F D- -7 F D- B+
 Mon, Dec 29 204 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 39% -1  47% 7 - 5 2 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +2 B- D- C- C +0 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 332 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 86% -3  25% 8 - 5 3 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 C+ D- A- C -2 C- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 205 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 62% +15  98% 9 - 5 4 - 2 B +9 B +6 B+ B+ C+ C+ +2 A C+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 268 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 52% +13  95% 10 - 5 5 - 2 A- +15 A+ +15 D- A+ B C+ +1 C+ D+ C-
 Sun, Jan 11 244 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 46% -13  0% 10 - 6 5 - 3 C- -4 A- +11 C F+ A+ F -15 F D C-
 Thu, Jan 15 271 Detroit Mercy W 96 - 71 74% +12  99% 11 - 6 6 - 3 A- +16 B+ +8 A+ C- B B +6 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 204 Robert Morris L 89 - 92 OT 62% -3  17% 11 - 7 6 - 4 D -9 D -5 D D C- C- -3 C- F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 150 @Wright St. L 80 - 88 28% -9  7% 11 - 8 6 - 5 C- -4 B- +5 A C D D- -9 D- C- D
 Fri, Jan 30 271 @Detroit Mercy L 77 - 90 52% -9  15% 11 - 9 6 - 6 F+ -16 C- -2 D- F B F -14 F F A
 Sun, Feb 1 143 @Oakland L 65 - 76 26% -2  34% 11 - 10 6 - 7 D+ -7 F -17 F D C+ A +11 A+ F A
 Wed, Feb 4 244 Green Bay L 84 - 87 OT 69% -3  23% 11 - 11 6 - 8 D -11 D -5 C+ F B+ D+ -5 C- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 67 - 62 73% +2  58% 12 - 11 7 - 8 C- -4 D -6 D C- D+ B- +2 C- C+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 332 @IU Indianapolis W 88 - 83 69%
 Wed, Feb 18 242 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80 - 75 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 205 @Youngstown St. L 74 - 77 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 299 @Cleveland St. W 83 - 81 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 150 Wright St. L 76 - 77 50%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 10 -3 C- -1 C- C C C- -1 D+ D- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- D D+ 39% 15% 46% B- C- C C C C C- C C- C- C D D D+ 40% 19% 41% C- D+ D+ D- D- B+ D+ B C-
1.07 59% 36% 30% -2 +1 0.98 30% 1.0 .31 17% .29 72% .21 1.10 58% 42% 37% +2 0 1.07 34% 1.1 .38 20% .34 69% .20
Nov
8		 Tennessee F+ C- C- F D- 39% 12% 49% B+ D C A+ B+ F+ D- F F F+ C F F F+ 37% 19% 44% C+ D- F+ C D- C- B F C
0.80 53% 33% 21% -12 +1 0.80 24% 1.3 .32 22% .24 38% .09 1.36 60% 60% 42% +10 0 1.22 52% 1.1 .55 17% .33 79% .26
Nov
12		 East Tennessee St. F D+ F+ F F 38% 13% 49% C+ F B F F F D+ D+ D B D F F F 67% 12% 21% F F A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18 1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35
Nov
20		 Central Michigan A C- D+ A+ B+ 37% 17% 46% C- B B- A+ A+ C F C- F B+ D+ F A+ C 35% 28% 37% C+ C F F F A+ F A D
1.32 58% 33% 46% +7 0 1.17 39% 1.5 .61 16% .23 69% .16 0.97 60% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.3 .52 28% .36 61% .22
Nov
24		 Eastern Kentucky D+ A+ F D- D- 27% 22% 51% D D- D A+ A C B- A+ A- B D F A C+ 16% 24% 59% B C+ C D- D+ B F A D+
1.15 79% 27% 31% +1 -1 1.02 28% 1.7 .47 15% .35 86% .30 1.00 63% 50% 28% -2 -2 0.94 32% 1.3 .41 20% .33 63% .21
Nov
26		 Wofford B A F C- C+ 55% 22% 24% C C+ C A+ B A- A+ C- A+ C- B+ A+ F C+ 37% 26% 37% A B- D+ C+ C- C F D+ F
1.25 68% 27% 33% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.4 .42 12% .52 76% .40 1.12 47% 25% 41% -3 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .28 15% .68 74% .51
Nov
29		 Boston University C- D+ F F F 29% 20% 51% D+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F B- D F+ 37% 29% 34% A D D F+ D- A+ F D+ F
1.19 54% 22% 26% -10 -1 0.80 50% 1.4 .69 18% .47 83% .39 1.04 79% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.18 29% 1.2 .33 26% .41 74% .30
Dec
3		 Cleveland St. B+ B B- A+ A 37% 17% 46% C A- A- A- A+ F D+ A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ F F 29% 15% 56% C F+ D- F F A+ F D+ F
1.32 68% 44% 46% +13 0 1.29 44% 1.3 .56 20% .26 93% .24 1.12 42% 0% 57% +9 0 1.20 32% 1.4 .44 28% .54 79% .43
Dec
6		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C- D+ D- F 30% 11% 59% C F+ B- F D+ F+ B+ A+ A+ C+ C F+ F F 48% 22% 30% C F F A+ B+ A+ F A F
1.02 59% 33% 30% -3 +1 0.96 38% 0.9 .32 24% .31 94% .30 1.05 58% 45% 53% +11 +1 1.24 33% 0.5 .15 24% .38 64% .24
Dec
13		 Bellarmine D+ A- B C- C- 41% 17% 43% B- C D+ F F+ C+ D+ F F B- C+ F F D+ 45% 10% 45% D+ D+ F+ A C- A+ B+ F C-
1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13 1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25
Dec
17		 Oakland D A- F F F+ 40% 17% 43% B- D- C- C C- B- D B- D+ C B D C C+ 45% 22% 33% C+ C+ C- A+ B+ C F B+ F+
1.06 70% 30% 24% -3 +1 0.97 33% 0.9 .30 14% .19 75% .14 1.13 52% 42% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 0.8 .27 14% .46 69% .32
Dec
21		 College of Charleston D- D+ B+ D+ C- 35% 14% 51% A- C B F D+ F B+ A+ A+ D- C+ F C- F 43% 17% 39% D- F D+ F+ D- B+ F A- F
1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25 1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34
Dec
29		 Robert Morris C+ A- C F C+ 58% 17% 25% B+ B- F A D- C- A- C- B+ C C F B- D+ 31% 21% 48% C+ C- D- F F B+ C- A+ B
1.12 68% 38% 25% +2 +2 1.10 18% 1.2 .21 17% .46 74% .34 1.09 56% 55% 32% +2 -1 1.04 39% 1.3 .53 21% .25 50% .13
Jan
1		 IU Indianapolis D+ F F A+ C 42% 8% 50% C+ C+ F B- D- A- B- F D- C F D C+ D 15% 31% 54% A+ C- F+ F F A A- F C+
1.15 50% 0% 50% +6 +2 1.17 27% 1.3 .36 16% .42 60% .25 1.02 75% 44% 32% +3 -3 1.02 33% 1.3 .43 21% .11 100% .11
Jan
4		 Youngstown St. B D- B A+ B- 54% 10% 37% A+ B+ C- A+ B+ C+ A+ B- A+ C+ A B B A 35% 15% 50% C+ A B+ D- C+ F F+ A+ C-
1.20 54% 40% 47% +5 +3 1.17 30% 1.3 .40 18% .50 78% .39 1.01 48% 33% 30% -7 0 0.88 25% 1.2 .29 13% .34 57% .19
Jan
9		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A+ B- A+ F F+ 39% 4% 57% B+ D- A+ A A+ B D A C- C+ D C- A+ C+ 37% 20% 43% D+ C+ B- F D+ C- F A+ D+
1.33 63% 50% 25% -5 +2 0.96 49% 1.4 .68 14% .29 81% .24 1.05 61% 40% 24% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.3 .37 14% .35 58% .20
Jan
11		 Green Bay A- D+ D B C- 41% 12% 47% B+ C D+ F F+ A+ C+ A B F F B+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F A- D C- B+ A A
1.29 57% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 26% 0.9 .24 5% .35 80% .28 1.33 71% 33% 53% +17 +1 1.39 36% 0.9 .32 15% .29 67% .19
Jan
15		 Detroit Mercy B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 51% 9% 40% B+ A+ F A+ C- B A+ C+ A+ B A- B A A 24% 34% 42% C+ A C+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35 0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04
Jan
17		 Robert Morris D B F F D- 48% 10% 41% B+ D D D+ D C- A+ D+ A+ C- B A+ D- C+ 44% 7% 48% F C- C+ F F+ C+ F C F
1.06 64% 17% 25% -5 +2 0.97 26% 0.9 .24 17% .53 73% .38 1.09 50% 25% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 1.4 .47 19% .45 68% .31
Jan
24		 Wright St. B- A+ A+ F A 44% 20% 36% C+ A D+ B C D D+ D+ D+ D- D- B F+ D- 51% 20% 29% D D- F A C- D F F F
1.14 77% 70% 22% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 20% .28 69% .20 1.25 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .37 14% .60 81% .48
Jan
30		 Detroit Mercy C- C+ A+ F F+ 32% 7% 61% C+ D- C F F B A- F C+ F C- D+ F F 30% 26% 43% F+ F D- F F A F A+ F
1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27 1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Oakland F F F+ F F 35% 10% 55% B+ F D- D+ D C+ D F D- A A+ F A+ A+ 56% 15% 30% F+ A+ D+ F F A D B C-
0.85 50% 33% 21% -14 +1 0.76 28% 0.9 .24 14% .20 62% .12 1.00 37% 63% 19% -15 +2 0.76 33% 1.7 .56 18% .39 71% .27
Feb
4		 Green Bay D D+ A+ C C 40% 9% 51% A- C+ D- F F B+ C F D D+ C+ A D- C 47% 13% 40% D- C- F F F A+ D+ C+ C-
1.11 57% 80% 34% +4 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 11% .33 64% .21 1.15 56% 29% 38% 0 +2 1.06 39% 1.5 .58 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
7		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D C+ C+ F+ D 31% 12% 57% C- D D B C- D+ A+ C A+ B- B A+ F C 43% 17% 39% F C- A+ F C+ B B+ B B+
1.07 62% 40% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 1.3 .32 18% .45 74% .33 0.99 50% 25% 39% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.4 .32 18% .21 64% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 6.2 5.2 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 5.1 11.1 1.2 17.4 4th
5th 1.7 14.5 4.9 0.1 21.2 5th
6th 0.4 11.5 11.6 0.7 24.2 6th
7th 3.0 10.3 1.4 0.0 14.7 7th
8th 0.3 5.0 1.7 7.1 8th
9th 0.9 1.7 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.4 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.7 10.3 25.2 33.1 22.9 6.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 6.8% 18.9% 18.9% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 5.5
11-9 22.9% 12.6% 12.6% 14.8 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 20.0
10-10 33.1% 8.9% 8.9% 15.1 0.4 1.9 0.7 30.2
9-11 25.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.7 23.7
8-12 10.3% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.1 0.4 9.8
7-13 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 14.9 90.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 13.9 0.8 28.7 52.7 17.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%
Lose Out 0.8%