Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.1 143
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 136
Pace 74.5 44
Improvement -2.7 293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #77 C C+ B+ B B-
Defense D+ #264 D+ C D+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 27 57% 201 +3.5 69
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 194 37% 212 -0.6 208
Three Pointers 35% 305 33% 205 -3.5 301
1st FG Attempt 1.01 189 -0.5 191
Second Chance 30.7% 174 1.11 72 0.34 113
Turnovers 13.8% 27
Freethrows 0.34 70 75% 106 0.26 55
Total Offense +4.1 77

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 265 64% 315 -0.5 193
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 143 46% 354 -2.0 327
Three Pointers 43% 124 33% 127 -0.1 189
1st FG Attempt 1.07 267 -2.7 266
Second Chance 34.1% 317 0.93 55 0.32 206
Turnovers 15.4% 274
Freethrows 0.24 19 72% 159 0.17 25
Total Defense -2.9 264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.6 100 -0.3 113
Shot Type Accuracy -1.1 211 +2.9 290
Possession Length 16.6 97 16.6 65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 29 0.16 120
Improvement -4.3 #350 +1.6 #101

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30% 31% 25%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 98% 99% 95%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 46% 53% 23%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round30% 31% 25%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 36 - 36 - 10
Quad 413 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78 - 121 1% -27  0% 0 - 1 D- -14 A- +10 A+ D+ A F -20 F D- F
 Fri, Nov 7 9 @Purdue L 77 - 87 3% -3  21% 0 - 2 B+ +14 A- +11 B- A A B- +3 B A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 5 @Houston L 45 - 78 2% -21  0% 0 - 3 D+ -7 F -12 D- D- B+ C+ +1 B- C D+
 Mon, Nov 17 52 @Central Florida L 83 - 87 13% -5  2% 0 - 4 B +10 B+ +9 C+ C A- C+ +1 C C C
 Fri, Nov 21 231 @Eastern Michigan L 91 - 97 58% -1  30% 0 - 5 D+ -7 A +12 A- B- A+ F -18 F A- D+
 Mon, Nov 24 196 Lamar W 83 - 68 64% +4  68% 1 - 5 B+ +13 B +6 D+ A+ B B+ +6 B+ F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 170 @Montana W 95 - 87 45% +4  75% 2 - 5 B +10 A +13 A+ D- B+ C- -3 C- F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 242 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101 - 92 80% +8  92% 3 - 5 1 - 0 C +1 A +12 B+ C+ A+ F -12 D C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 165 Toledo W 98 - 97 67% -1  32% 4 - 5 C- -2 B+ +8 C B+ A+ F+ -11 D- F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 100 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 75 25% -5  11% 4 - 6 C- -4 D -6 C- C+ F B- +3 C+ B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 17 201 @Northern Kentucky W 82 - 77 53% +2  67% 5 - 6 2 - 0 B- +5 B- +4 D F+ A+ C+ +1 C+ C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 10 Michigan St. L 70 - 79 5% -4  24% 5 - 7 B +11 B+ +8 A C+ C C+ +2 B+ C+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 150 @Wright St. L 73 - 88 41% -14  1% 5 - 8 2 - 1 D- -11 D+ -3 F+ D C- D- -9 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 205 @Youngstown St. W 85 - 83 53% -4  21% 6 - 8 3 - 1 C+ +2 A+ +15 A B- A F -13 B- F F
 Sun, Jan 4 204 Robert Morris W 96 - 73 74% +14  94% 7 - 8 4 - 1 A- +17 A+ +19 C A A+ C -1 C- B+ D-
 Fri, Jan 9 299 Cleveland St. W 97 - 72 87% +13  90% 8 - 8 5 - 1 B+ +14 B +6 F A+ C- B+ +6 A+ D- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 150 Wright St. L 84 - 94 64% -17  0% 8 - 9 5 - 2 D- -12 C+ +2 C D A+ F -15 F A A+
 Thu, Jan 15 268 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73 - 60 66% +9  99% 9 - 9 6 - 2 B +10 F+ -9 F B+ F A+ +18 A+ C+ B
 Sun, Jan 18 244 @Green Bay W 88 - 63 60% +11  87% 10 - 9 7 - 2 A+ +23 A+ +16 B+ A+ C- A- +9 C+ A C+
 Wed, Jan 21 332 IU Indianapolis L 85 - 103 91% -8  12% 10 - 10 7 - 3 F -32 C- -1 F B A F -31 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 271 @Detroit Mercy W 95 - 87 66% +4  82% 11 - 10 8 - 3 B- +5 A+ +18 B+ C+ A+ F -13 F C C
 Wed, Jan 28 242 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 74 - 65 60% +1  59% 12 - 10 9 - 3 B- +7 C- -2 D F+ A+ A- +9 A+ F D-
 Sun, Feb 1 201 Northern Kentucky W 76 - 65 74% +2  62% 13 - 10 10 - 3 B- +5 F+ -8 F A+ B- A+ +13 A+ B+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 299 @Cleveland St. L 78 - 91 72% +2  69% 13 - 11 10 - 4 F -18 D -5 D- D- D- F -12 F B- F+
 Thu, Feb 12 205 Youngstown St. W 84 - 77 75%
 Sun, Feb 15 204 @Robert Morris W 79 - 78 53%
 Fri, Feb 20 244 Green Bay W 84 - 75 80%
 Sun, Feb 22 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87 - 77 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 332 @IU Indianapolis W 95 - 86 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 271 Detroit Mercy W 88 - 78 83%
Totals 18 - 12 15 - 5 +1 B- +4 C C+ B+ D+ -3 D+ C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C- C- C- C- 45% 20% 35% B- C C B- C+ B+ B B- B D+ D F C+ D+ 36% 22% 43% C+ D+ D B C D+ B+ C B+
1.14 57% 37% 33% -1 +1 1.01 31% 1.1 .34 14% .34 75% .26 1.13 64% 46% 33% +3 0 1.07 34% 0.9 .32 15% .24 72% .25
Nov
3		 Michigan A- D- A+ A+ A+ 31% 28% 41% B- A+ F A+ D+ A C+ A+ B F F F F F 32% 15% 53% A+ F A+ F D- F A+ F A+
1.00 42% 47% 40% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.4 .18 14% .23 87% .20 1.56 85% 56% 52% +25 0 1.53 26% 2.3 .61 10% .19 92% .17
Nov
7		 Purdue A- A+ F C B 22% 33% 45% D B- A B A A C A C+ B- F B- B- B 28% 22% 50% C+ B A A+ A+ F B+ A- A-
1.10 83% 28% 32% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.2 .37 13% .20 75% .15 1.24 82% 38% 33% +7 -1 1.13 29% 0.9 .26 7% .23 67% .15
Nov
12		 Houston F F F F F+ 42% 30% 28% C D- C- F D- B+ C- C- C- C+ F A- B+ B- 24% 35% 42% B B- F+ B+ C D+ A+ A+ A+
0.73 44% 23% 25% -14 -1 0.72 26% 0.6 .16 21% .31 67% .20 1.26 92% 32% 30% +4 -3 1.04 45% 0.9 .40 10% .14 63% .09
Nov
17		 Central Florida B+ F C- A+ C 44% 15% 40% B+ C+ B D- C A- A+ A+ A+ C+ B F C+ C 38% 21% 40% C C D- A- C C F B F
1.14 43% 38% 43% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.9 .25 14% .42 85% .35 1.20 55% 64% 33% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.1 .45 15% .41 72% .29
Nov
21		 Eastern Michigan A C A+ A A- 51% 12% 37% A- A- C- A B- A+ C- D D+ F F F F F 40% 20% 40% D- F A+ D+ A- D+ C+ F D+
1.22 57% 57% 41% +6 +2 1.17 27% 1.2 .32 11% .30 70% .21 1.31 73% 82% 45% +22 0 1.45 17% 1.0 .17 16% .24 87% .21
Nov
24		 Lamar B A F F D- 50% 17% 33% B+ D+ C+ A+ A+ B A+ C A+ B+ B- C+ A B+ 27% 31% 42% C- B+ D- D- F+ A+ F+ B D
1.17 71% 25% 19% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.6 .53 16% .53 69% .37 0.96 50% 38% 27% -6 -2 0.85 39% 1.1 .44 23% .29 69% .20
Nov
25		 Montana A A+ F A+ A+ 49% 25% 26% C+ A+ B F D- B+ A+ B+ A+ C- C+ D F+ C- 47% 16% 36% D C- F F F C- D- A+ B-
1.22 77% 23% 43% +9 0 1.21 35% 0.6 .22 13% .46 74% .34 1.12 58% 44% 40% +4 +1 1.13 31% 1.4 .42 19% .35 59% .21
Dec
3		 Purdue Fort Wayne A A+ F A A- 34% 20% 46% D B+ D+ A C+ A+ A+ C A F D+ A- D- D 37% 11% 52% D D C- D+ C- F D- A- D+
1.31 89% 9% 42% +11 0 1.23 31% 1.3 .40 14% .36 75% .27 1.20 63% 29% 38% +4 +1 1.12 22% 1.1 .24 10% .29 65% .19
Dec
6		 Toledo B+ C A F+ D+ 67% 6% 27% A+ C F A+ B+ A+ B- C- B- F+ C- F A+ D- 46% 25% 29% D+ D- F C+ F C- A- D+ B+
1.26 60% 50% 29% +1 +4 1.11 21% 2.0 .41 6% .27 70% .19 1.24 59% 88% 22% +8 0 1.17 45% 0.9 .42 15% .21 79% .17
Dec
13		 Northern Iowa D D D+ F D 62% 6% 33% A+ C- C- B C+ F A F B- B- C C+ C+ C+ 48% 15% 37% D+ C+ C A+ B+ F+ F A F
0.86 50% 33% 24% -10 +4 0.88 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 63% .21 1.03 60% 38% 32% 0 +1 1.04 22% 0.8 .16 11% .42 59% .25
Dec
17		 Northern Kentucky B- D C+ C- D- 45% 22% 33% C D C- F F+ A+ A+ C A+ C+ F B+ A+ C+ 40% 17% 43% C+ C+ D+ B+ C+ D- A D+ A
1.13 52% 42% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 0.8 .27 14% .46 69% .32 1.06 70% 30% 24% -3 +1 0.97 33% 0.9 .30 14% .19 75% .14
Dec
20		 Michigan St. B+ F+ C+ A+ A 41% 22% 37% B A C B+ C+ C C- A+ B C+ F A+ B+ B+ 31% 29% 41% B+ B+ C- B C+ C- D C+ D+
1.03 43% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 18% 0.8 .15 18% .23 92% .21 1.16 80% 21% 30% 0 -2 0.98 43% 1.0 .43 16% .40 74% .30
Dec
29		 Wright St. D+ F B F+ F 41% 22% 37% C- F+ B+ F D C- A+ B- A+ D- C- C- F F 48% 21% 31% D+ F C B+ B- B- D- D- F+
1.03 45% 45% 28% -7 0 0.88 38% 0.7 .25 18% .52 73% .38 1.24 61% 40% 60% +14 +1 1.31 32% 1.0 .32 18% .38 77% .29
Jan
1		 Youngstown St. A+ A+ F A+ A 41% 24% 34% C- A D A+ B- A A+ C- A+ F F A+ B B- 31% 12% 58% C B- F D- F F F D- F
1.29 76% 20% 50% +12 0 1.24 28% 1.3 .36 14% .60 74% .44 1.26 75% 0% 30% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .49 11% .34 75% .25
Jan
4		 Robert Morris A+ C A+ F B- 35% 31% 33% F C B+ A A A+ A+ A+ A+ C F B- A- D 33% 33% 33% A C- B- A- B+ D- D D+ D
1.41 59% 73% 19% +4 -2 1.06 37% 1.2 .44 9% .59 89% .53 1.07 76% 35% 29% +3 -2 1.04 32% 0.9 .30 15% .29 71% .21
Jan
9		 Cleveland St. B C- A- F F 42% 14% 44% B- F A+ B- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ B+ F D A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% A- A+ F B+ D- D- A+ D A+
1.31 60% 50% 23% -5 +1 0.95 53% 1.1 .60 16% .43 89% .39 0.97 71% 41% 9% -9 -1 0.82 39% 0.9 .35 16% .16 80% .13
Jan
11		 Wright St. C+ C B- C C 40% 31% 29% D- C F A+ D A+ A+ C A+ F F+ F F F 36% 32% 32% A F F A+ A A+ B F D
1.15 57% 44% 33% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.3 .24 8% .48 72% .34 1.28 68% 59% 53% +20 -2 1.38 42% 0.6 .25 25% .27 100% .27
Jan
15		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee F+ D+ F F F 54% 16% 30% B F C A+ B+ F A B+ A A+ B B- A+ A+ 46% 25% 30% D A+ D- A- C+ B D+ A+ C+
0.98 56% 13% 20% -12 +2 0.82 31% 1.5 .44 21% .41 79% .32 0.81 50% 36% 6% -17 0 0.68 36% 0.9 .32 17% .29 56% .16
Jan
18		 Green Bay A+ B D A+ B+ 52% 26% 22% C+ B+ A+ D A+ C- A+ F B+ A- F F A+ C 28% 26% 47% A+ C+ C- A+ A C+ A F B
1.38 67% 33% 50% +9 0 1.20 53% 1.1 .56 14% .47 62% .29 0.98 77% 50% 23% 0 -1 1.00 25% 0.6 .16 17% .26 86% .23
Jan
21		 IU Indianapolis C- F F A+ F 49% 8% 43% B- F C- A+ B A A F C+ F F F F F 25% 42% 33% A+ F F B F D A+ B A+
1.19 42% 0% 43% -5 +2 0.96 34% 1.5 .53 14% .49 63% .31 1.44 80% 64% 50% +24 -4 1.43 48% 1.0 .48 14% .05 67% .03
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Detroit Mercy A+ A- A+ D+ B+ 53% 11% 36% B+ B+ C+ C C+ A+ B A+ A+ F F F F F 18% 34% 48% B- F F A- C C A+ F A
1.38 68% 50% 32% +5 +2 1.17 34% 1.1 .38 7% .41 85% .34 1.26 70% 63% 41% +16 -3 1.27 39% 0.8 .30 16% .14 100% .14
Jan
28		 Purdue Fort Wayne C- D+ F B D- 52% 8% 40% A- D D F F+ A+ A- D- B A- A+ F A- A+ 37% 3% 59% F A+ C+ F F D- A+ A+ A+
1.07 56% 0% 38% -2 +3 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .34 70% .24 0.94 36% 50% 29% -12 +2 0.81 20% 1.7 .34 12% .11 57% .07
Feb
1		 Northern Kentucky F+ F A+ F F 56% 15% 30% A- F C A+ A+ B- B+ C+ B A+ B+ B- A+ A+ 35% 10% 55% D+ A+ C+ A B+ D A A+ A+
1.00 37% 63% 19% -15 +2 0.76 33% 1.7 .56 18% .39 71% .27 0.85 50% 33% 21% -14 +1 0.76 28% 0.9 .24 14% .20 62% .12
Feb
4		 Cleveland St. D A- B- F D 36% 22% 42% D+ D- D- D+ D- D- A- B A- F C+ F F F 27% 11% 63% C- F F A+ B- F+ B C- B-
1.09 72% 45% 24% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 18% .36 81% .29 1.28 53% 50% 49% +14 0 1.30 41% 0.6 .23 15% .30 78% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 7.0 20.6 17.4 45.9 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 10.9 21.0 15.3 2.3 51.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.1 0.6 1.9 3rd
4th 0.4 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.7 3.2 12.4 28.0 36.0 19.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 88.3% 17.4    11.4 6.0
15-5 57.4% 20.6    8.9 11.7
14-6 25.1% 7.0    1.9 4.9 0.2
13-7 6.9% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.9% 45.9 22.3 23.1 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 19.7% 36.5% 36.5% 13.1 0.0 1.3 4.3 1.6 0.1 12.5
15-5 36.0% 30.6% 30.6% 13.8 0.2 3.5 6.2 1.1 0.0 25.0
14-6 28.0% 27.3% 27.3% 14.1 0.0 1.1 4.6 1.8 0.0 20.4
13-7 12.4% 24.0% 24.0% 14.5 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.1 9.4
12-8 3.2% 22.0% 22.0% 15.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 2.5
11-9 0.7% 13.9% 13.9% 15.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.6% 29.6% 0.0% 13.8 70.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.2% 100.0% 13.1 0.3 17.6 59.4 21.9 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.1%