IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.0	#207
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#312
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.5	#104

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.5	#312

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.5%	14.6%	7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	13.4	14.3

.500 or above	43.4%	68.6%	38.3%
.500 or above in Conference	63.2%	78.3%	60.1%
Conference Champion	11.1%	18.8%	9.5%
Last Place in Conference	5.3%	2.4%	5.9%

First Four	1.3%	1.0%	1.4%
First Round	7.9%	14.2%	6.6%
Second Round	0.9%	2.0%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 16.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 5	4 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 4	13 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2023	91	@ UNLV	L	69-80	17%
Nov 13, 2023	4	@ Houston	L	56-78	2%
Nov 20, 2023	217	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	78-77	52%
Nov 26, 2023	81	@ Central Florida	L	61-73	15%
Dec 03, 2023	324	@ Chicago St.	W	72-68	65%
Dec 05, 2023	156	@ Charlotte	L	61-67	31%
Dec 17, 2023	296	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	75-73	57%
Dec 19, 2023	196	@ Florida International	L	72-76	38%
Dec 22, 2023	58	@ Cincinnati	L	65-79	11%
Dec 29, 2023	156	Charlotte	W	64-63	50%
Jan 04, 2024	280	North Florida	W	78-71	74%
Jan 06, 2024	246	Jacksonville	W	65-59	69%
Jan 10, 2024	204	@ Kennesaw St.	L	71-74	40%
Jan 12, 2024	224	@ Queens	L	74-76	44%
Jan 15, 2024	324	Chicago St.	W	75-65	81%
Jan 20, 2024	159	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	68-74	32%
Jan 25, 2024	236	Austin Peay	W	72-67	66%
Jan 27, 2024	184	Lipscomb	W	76-74	56%
Feb 01, 2024	223	@ North Alabama	L	72-74	44%
Feb 03, 2024	336	@ Central Arkansas	W	81-75	68%
Feb 07, 2024	215	@ Bellarmine	L	65-68	42%
Feb 10, 2024	134	Eastern Kentucky	L	75-76	47%
Feb 17, 2024	159	Florida Gulf Coast	W	72-71	51%
Feb 22, 2024	224	Queens	W	77-73	63%
Feb 24, 2024	204	Kennesaw St.	W	74-71	59%
Feb 28, 2024	246	@ Jacksonville	L	62-63	49%
Mar 01, 2024	280	@ North Florida	W	75-74	54%
Projected Record						13 - 14	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.8	2.4	3.6	2.7	1.3	0.3		11.1	1st
2nd										0.1	1.0	3.8	3.9	1.8	0.3	0.0			11.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	1.0	4.1	4.2	1.3	0.1					10.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.5	3.9	4.5	1.2	0.1						10.2	4th
5th								0.3	3.0	4.9	1.5	0.1							9.7	5th
6th							0.1	2.0	5.1	1.9	0.2								9.3	6th
7th						0.0	1.1	4.4	2.8	0.3	0.0								8.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.7	3.5	3.5	0.5	0.0									8.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	2.6	3.3	0.8	0.0										7.3	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	1.9	2.6	1.1	0.0											6.1	10th
11th		0.1	0.6	1.5	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.0											4.9	11th
12th	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.0												2.8	12th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.5	2.8	4.7	6.8	9.3	11.1	11.8	12.1	11.3	10.1	7.7	5.5	3.1	1.3	0.3			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
15-1	99.1%	1.3		1.2	0.1
14-2	89.1%	2.7		2.2	0.6	0.0
13-3	65.1%	3.6		2.0	1.3	0.2	0.0
12-4	30.8%	2.4		0.8	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
11-5	7.6%	0.8		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	11.1%	11.1		6.6	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.3%		64.3%	57.8%	6.5%	11.2					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.1		15.4%
15-1	1.3%		44.3%	43.7%	0.6%	12.1							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.7		1.1%
14-2	3.1%		31.2%	31.0%	0.3%	12.9											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	2.1		0.4%
13-3	5.5%		25.2%	25.2%		13.4												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	4.1
12-4	7.7%		18.7%	18.7%		13.8												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0	6.2
11-5	10.1%		12.6%	12.6%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.2	8.8
10-6	11.3%		8.3%	8.3%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	10.3
9-7	12.1%		6.2%	6.2%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	11.4
8-8	11.8%		3.8%	3.8%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	11.4
7-9	11.1%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.3	10.8
6-10	9.3%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.0	0.2	9.1
5-11	6.8%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.1	6.7
4-12	4.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
3-13	2.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
2-14	1.5%																							1.5
1-15	0.6%																							0.6
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		8.5%	8.5%	0.0%	14.1					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.7	2.0	1.7	1.8	91.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%