Preseason Rankings
Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#249
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#94
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#211
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#291
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 15.5
.500 or above 26.4% 31.5% 11.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.1% 14.1% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 35.8% 32.0% 47.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 32 - 63 - 14
Quad 49 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 317   Western Illinois W 77-70 75%    
  Nov 10, 2023 113   @ Minnesota L 66-77 15%    
  Nov 14, 2023 341   @ Lamar W 74-70 63%    
  Nov 17, 2023 193   @ Texas St. L 66-72 28%    
  Nov 20, 2023 360   @ Houston Christian W 84-77 74%    
  Nov 24, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. W 72-71 55%    
  Nov 25, 2023 348   Incarnate Word W 80-69 83%    
  Nov 30, 2023 341   Lamar W 77-67 80%    
  Dec 13, 2023 275   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 80-82 45%    
  Dec 17, 2023 118   @ Oregon St. L 63-74 18%    
  Dec 21, 2023 300   Army W 78-72 69%    
  Dec 28, 2023 326   Prairie View W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 02, 2024 77   UAB L 74-83 23%    
  Jan 06, 2024 178   @ Rice L 76-83 27%    
  Jan 10, 2024 27   @ Memphis L 70-90 5%    
  Jan 13, 2024 156   Charlotte L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 17, 2024 233   @ Tulsa L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 21, 2024 25   Florida Atlantic L 68-82 11%    
  Jan 24, 2024 99   Tulane L 79-85 30%    
  Jan 27, 2024 145   @ South Florida L 70-79 22%    
  Feb 03, 2024 178   Rice L 79-80 45%    
  Feb 07, 2024 95   @ Wichita St. L 65-78 15%    
  Feb 10, 2024 146   East Carolina L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 15, 2024 156   @ Charlotte L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 18, 2024 138   @ Temple L 66-76 21%    
  Feb 21, 2024 145   South Florida L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 24, 2024 90   @ North Texas L 55-68 14%    
  Feb 28, 2024 233   Tulsa W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 02, 2024 101   @ SMU L 70-82 16%    
  Mar 10, 2024 138   Temple L 69-73 38%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.8 4.6 1.1 0.0 10.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 4.5 5.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 13.4 12th
13th 0.3 2.2 6.0 6.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.8 13th
14th 2.6 6.5 8.1 5.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 25.2 14th
Total 2.6 6.7 10.3 12.7 14.0 12.9 11.8 9.5 7.2 4.9 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 45.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 18.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 50.7% 26.1% 24.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3%
15-3 0.1% 12.3% 7.6% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.1%
14-4 0.2% 9.0% 6.8% 2.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3%
13-5 0.5% 3.4% 3.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-7 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
10-8 3.3% 1.4% 1.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
9-9 4.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
8-10 7.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
7-11 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
6-12 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.8
5-13 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 12.9
4-14 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.0
3-15 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.7
2-16 10.3% 10.3
1-17 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
0-18 2.6% 2.6
Total 100% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%