Preseason Rankings
Western Michigan
Mid-American
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#319
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#264
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#288
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#327
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 11.7% 20.9% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 19.9% 27.8% 15.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 26.0% 18.6% 30.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 34.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 47 - 89 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 201   North Dakota St. L 69-73 35%    
  Nov 11, 2023 206   Georgia St. L 67-71 36%    
  Nov 14, 2023 47   @ Northwestern L 55-77 2%    
  Nov 19, 2023 38   @ Ohio St. L 58-81 2%    
  Nov 24, 2023 268   SE Louisiana L 72-75 39%    
  Dec 01, 2023 276   St. Thomas W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 05, 2023 133   @ Notre Dame L 61-75 11%    
  Dec 09, 2023 212   Youngstown St. L 72-76 38%    
  Dec 16, 2023 244   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 21, 2023 187   @ Cleveland St. L 63-74 17%    
  Jan 02, 2024 260   @ Miami (OH) L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 06, 2024 216   @ Buffalo L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 09, 2024 240   Northern Illinois L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 13, 2024 127   Ohio L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 16, 2024 114   @ Akron L 61-76 10%    
  Jan 20, 2024 235   @ Bowling Green L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 23, 2024 315   Eastern Michigan W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 27, 2024 323   Central Michigan W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 30, 2024 132   @ Toledo L 69-83 12%    
  Feb 03, 2024 234   Ball St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 06, 2024 107   @ Kent St. L 62-78 9%    
  Feb 17, 2024 323   @ Central Michigan L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 20, 2024 260   Miami (OH) L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 24, 2024 216   Buffalo L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 27, 2024 315   @ Eastern Michigan L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 02, 2024 234   @ Ball St. L 67-75 25%    
  Mar 05, 2024 235   Bowling Green L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 08, 2024 114   Akron L 64-73 22%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.7 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.9 3.8 0.7 0.0 14.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 4.7 6.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 16.7 11th
12th 1.2 3.6 5.6 4.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 17.8 12th
Total 1.2 3.7 7.1 10.0 11.9 13.0 12.8 11.2 9.2 7.1 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 78.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 70.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 31.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 62.1% 62.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 20.7% 20.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 13.1% 13.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 8.3% 8.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.1% 4.1% 4.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.1% 5.0% 5.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
11-7 3.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
10-8 5.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.1
9-9 7.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
8-10 9.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-11 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-12 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-13 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
4-14 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-15 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.0
2-16 7.1% 7.1
1-17 3.7% 3.7
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%