Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 High Point 41.8%   14   14 - 5 4 - 2 22 - 7 12 - 4 +3.7      +6.9 34 -3.3 271 67.9 203 +3.0 119 +0.4 2
188 UNC Asheville 14.3%   9 - 6 4 - 1 15 - 11 10 - 6 -1.2      +4.2 69 -5.4 333 69.2 165 +0.8 156 +4.7 1
197 Longwood 12.7%   11 - 6 3 - 2 17 - 11 9 - 7 -1.6      -0.8 200 -0.8 204 70.4 130 +1.4 147 -0.6 3
198 Winthrop 10.9%   10 - 8 3 - 3 16 - 12 9 - 7 -1.7      +0.8 155 -2.4 249 78.3 14 -1.4 194 -4.3 7
205 Radford 10.5%   11 - 7 3 - 2 17 - 12 9 - 7 -2.1      0.0 176 -2.2 241 61.1 347 +2.7 121 -1.4 4
241 Gardner-Webb 4.9%   8 - 11 3 - 3 13 - 16 8 - 8 -4.4      -1.8 227 -2.6 253 72.5 81 -3.7 231 -4.1 6
275 Presbyterian 2.4%   5 - 12 1 - 4 9 - 19 5 - 11 -6.4      -2.5 233 -3.9 287 63.4 315 -7.5 288 -10.9 9
279 Charleston Southern 2.3%   4 - 14 2 - 3 8 - 21 6 - 10 -6.7      -4.2 288 -2.4 250 69.4 158 -7.7 295 -4.1 5
337 South Carolina Upstate 0.1%   2 - 15 1 - 4 4 - 24 3 - 13 -11.5      -5.9 325 -5.5 334 78.6 12 -12.8 338 -10.7 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
High Point 1.6 63.2 22.6 8.6 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
UNC Asheville 2.5 30.5 28.9 18.0 10.5 6.3 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0
Longwood 3.4 13.7 21.7 22.5 17.0 12.7 7.7 3.7 1.1 0.2
Winthrop 4.1 6.7 13.1 18.4 21.6 18.5 12.5 6.5 2.5 0.3
Radford 3.7 11.3 18.0 20.1 18.7 15.6 9.4 4.9 1.9 0.2
Gardner-Webb 5.1 2.4 6.6 10.2 14.7 19.0 23.0 16.6 6.5 1.0
Presbyterian 7.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.5 8.1 14.2 22.0 36.0 12.0
Charleston Southern 6.2 0.6 2.8 4.6 8.5 13.9 20.3 25.8 17.9 5.8
South Carolina Upstate 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 8.6 22.7 63.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
High Point 12 - 4 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.6 13.2 21.4 28.0 21.4 8.4
UNC Asheville 10 - 6 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 8.4 15.3 20.7 21.2 16.4 8.7 3.1 0.7
Longwood 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 9.4 15.0 21.6 21.8 15.7 8.5 2.8 0.5
Winthrop 9 - 7 0.1 0.7 2.5 7.5 15.1 21.0 23.0 17.8 8.9 3.2 0.5
Radford 9 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.4 11.6 18.2 21.0 20.0 12.9 6.3 2.0 0.3
Gardner-Webb 8 - 8 0.4 2.8 8.4 17.0 21.8 21.5 15.4 8.6 3.5 0.7 0.1
Presbyterian 5 - 11 0.5 3.4 9.5 17.3 22.8 20.1 14.2 7.8 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Charleston Southern 6 - 10 0.6 3.4 9.5 17.0 22.0 21.0 14.2 7.9 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 3 - 13 8.4 20.8 26.3 22.3 12.8 6.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
High Point 63.2% 45.0 14.3 3.3 0.6 0.1
UNC Asheville 30.5% 17.2 10.0 2.6 0.5 0.1
Longwood 13.7% 6.2 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.1
Winthrop 6.7% 2.6 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
Radford 11.3% 4.9 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.1
Gardner-Webb 2.4% 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0
Presbyterian 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 0.6% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
High Point 41.8% 41.8% 0.0% 14   0.7 8.7 18.1 12.3 2.0 0.0 58.2 0.0%
UNC Asheville 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.2 1.0 3.6 6.9 2.7 85.7 0.0%
Longwood 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.0 6.0 1.8 87.3 0.0%
Winthrop 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.3 2.2 89.1 0.0%
Radford 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.9 5.6 1.5 89.5 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.4 95.1 0.0%
Presbyterian 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%
Charleston Southern 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.3 97.7 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
High Point 41.8% 0.0% 41.8% 4.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 14.3% 0.7% 14.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 12.7% 0.4% 12.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 10.9% 0.7% 10.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 10.5% 0.3% 10.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 4.9% 2.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 2.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.3% 1.0 3.7 96.3
2nd Round 5.6% 0.1 94.4 5.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0