Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
125 High Point 31.3%   14   3 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 8 11 - 5 +2.8      +4.9 57 -2.1 240 70.2 153 +0.9 179 0.0 1
163 Winthrop 18.9%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 6 +0.2      -1.1 197 +1.3 124 67.4 241 +0.5 188 0.0 1
167 Longwood 17.6%   2 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 10 - 6 -0.2      -1.9 230 +1.7 117 70.1 158 +3.9 117 0.0 1
211 UNC Asheville 9.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 14 8 - 8 -2.7      -0.3 179 -2.4 248 69.2 184 -5.9 279 0.0 1
217 Gardner-Webb 8.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -3.0      -1.5 208 -1.5 218 72.5 98 +4.5 106 0.0 1
254 Radford 5.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 9 -4.5      -0.6 187 -3.9 304 65.8 285 +5.0 101 0.0 1
264 Presbyterian 4.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 9 -5.2      +0.1 167 -5.3 341 68.2 213 -0.6 210 0.0 1
303 Charleston Southern 2.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 10 -7.3      -3.8 287 -3.5 289 69.7 170 -5.9 281 0.0 1
316 South Carolina Upstate 1.5%   0 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 11 -8.5      -3.8 290 -4.7 326 71.5 113 -2.2 231 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
High Point 2.3 43.7 22.1 13.9 8.4 5.4 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.3
Winthrop 3.3 24.2 20.9 16.4 12.6 9.8 7.1 4.7 3.0 1.5
Longwood 3.4 21.9 19.6 16.8 13.1 10.2 7.8 5.3 3.5 1.8
UNC Asheville 4.5 10.7 13.3 14.1 14.5 13.7 11.9 9.5 7.5 4.8
Gardner-Webb 4.6 9.2 12.4 14.2 14.8 14.0 12.8 10.3 7.4 4.8
Radford 5.3 5.6 8.5 10.7 12.8 14.0 14.0 14.0 11.9 8.5
Presbyterian 5.6 4.3 7.2 9.3 11.8 13.9 14.9 14.8 13.6 10.3
Charleston Southern 6.5 2.1 3.9 5.7 8.3 10.5 13.7 16.4 19.1 20.4
South Carolina Upstate 7.0 1.0 2.3 4.1 5.9 8.6 11.9 16.1 21.7 28.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
High Point 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 6.3 9.0 12.4 14.4 15.3 14.3 11.5 6.7 2.3
Winthrop 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.2 8.0 10.4 12.4 13.9 13.5 11.9 9.0 5.9 2.6 0.7
Longwood 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.8 8.7 10.9 12.5 14.1 12.9 11.1 8.2 5.2 2.3 0.6
UNC Asheville 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.8 4.8 7.8 10.0 12.2 13.2 12.9 11.7 9.3 6.5 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.2
Gardner-Webb 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.2 7.9 10.7 12.9 13.6 13.1 11.4 9.0 5.9 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1
Radford 7 - 9 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.4 8.4 10.9 13.2 13.5 12.7 11.2 8.4 6.2 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
Presbyterian 7 - 9 0.3 1.2 3.4 6.2 9.5 12.1 13.7 13.8 12.5 10.0 7.5 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 6 - 10 1.1 3.7 7.5 10.3 13.0 14.3 13.7 11.8 9.0 6.6 4.3 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 5 - 11 1.8 5.7 9.9 13.2 15.0 15.0 13.2 9.7 6.9 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
High Point 43.7% 32.1 9.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Winthrop 24.2% 15.9 6.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Longwood 21.9% 14.3 5.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
UNC Asheville 10.7% 6.4 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Gardner-Webb 9.2% 5.2 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Radford 5.6% 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Presbyterian 4.3% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charleston Southern 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
High Point 31.3% 31.3% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 5.6 9.3 8.3 5.2 1.6 68.7 0.0%
Winthrop 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 5.2 4.2 2.2 81.1 0.0%
Longwood 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 5.1 4.2 1.7 82.4 0.0%
UNC Asheville 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.9 2.9 90.4 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.7 2.1 91.4 0.0%
Radford 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.7 94.6 0.0%
Presbyterian 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.0 95.4 0.0%
Charleston Southern 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 97.5 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
High Point 31.3% 0.6% 31.0% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 18.9% 1.0% 18.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 17.6% 0.7% 17.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 9.6% 1.7% 8.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 8.6% 1.2% 8.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 5.4% 1.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 4.6% 1.3% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 2.5% 1.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 95.7% 1.0 4.3 95.6 0.0
2nd Round 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0