Ivy League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
99 Yale 34.9%   14   5 - 6 0 - 0 16 - 10 10 - 4 +4.9      +3.9 73 +1.1 135 68.3 196 -1.0 182 0.0 1
111 Princeton 24.9%   8 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 9 9 - 5 +3.5      +3.5 86 +0.1 163 68.3 199 +5.1 101 0.0 1
122 Cornell 18.6%   6 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 9 9 - 5 +2.3      +4.0 71 -1.7 223 77.1 23 +3.4 115 0.0 1
160 Brown 9.6%   7 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 12 7 - 7 -0.2      -0.2 176 0.0 164 64.4 294 -0.8 179 0.0 1
176 Columbia 8.3%   8 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 9 7 - 7 -0.9      +2.0 122 -2.9 264 70.3 141 +9.1 70 0.0 1
244 Harvard 1.9%   3 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 17 5 - 9 -4.5      -3.7 280 -0.9 196 68.5 192 -8.3 304 0.0 1
276 Penn 0.9%   4 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 19 4 - 10 -6.3      -1.7 218 -4.6 319 64.4 292 -8.0 298 0.0 1
279 Dartmouth 0.8%   4 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 17 4 - 10 -6.3      -4.5 297 -1.9 230 73.2 73 -6.8 282 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 2.1 47.2 24.1 14.3 7.9 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.2
Princeton 2.6 31.3 25.3 18.4 12.2 7.1 3.5 1.7 0.5
Cornell 2.9 24.1 23.2 19.6 15.0 9.4 5.2 2.5 0.9
Brown 3.9 10.9 15.2 18.2 19.0 16.4 11.1 6.3 2.9
Columbia 4.2 8.9 12.6 16.2 18.7 17.8 13.2 8.2 4.3
Harvard 5.7 1.6 4.0 7.2 11.7 17.0 21.9 20.5 16.0
Penn 6.3 0.8 2.0 4.2 7.7 13.0 19.8 25.0 27.6
Dartmouth 6.2 0.8 2.2 4.7 8.2 13.3 20.0 24.3 26.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 6.5 10.9 15.7 19.0 18.6 14.5 7.7 2.1
Princeton 9 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 6.2 10.5 14.6 17.5 18.2 14.3 8.9 3.9 0.9
Cornell 9 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.6 8.3 12.8 16.0 17.7 15.8 11.8 6.4 2.7 0.5
Brown 7 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 6.0 10.3 14.3 16.5 16.5 14.1 9.8 5.3 2.2 0.6 0.1
Columbia 7 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.2 7.7 12.0 15.3 16.8 15.4 12.0 7.8 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.1
Harvard 5 - 9 0.6 2.9 7.5 12.7 17.1 17.7 16.0 11.9 7.4 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Penn 4 - 10 1.6 6.2 12.2 17.3 19.1 17.3 11.9 7.6 4.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 4 - 10 1.5 5.9 12.0 16.8 18.4 16.8 12.5 8.3 4.5 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 47.2% 33.3 11.1 2.5 0.3 0.0
Princeton 31.3% 19.6 9.1 2.2 0.3 0.0
Cornell 24.1% 14.3 7.5 2.0 0.3 0.0
Brown 10.9% 5.5 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Columbia 8.9% 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Harvard 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Penn 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 34.9% 34.9% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 9.5 14.0 7.3 2.2 0.1 65.1 0.0%
Princeton 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 10.8 9.9 2.5 0.1 75.1 0.0%
Cornell 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.2 7.8 4.2 0.8 0.0 81.4 0.0%
Brown 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.7 1.5 0.1 90.4 0.0%
Columbia 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.1 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 91.7 0.0%
Harvard 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 98.1 0.0%
Penn 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Yale 34.9% 0.0% 34.9% 5.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 24.9% 0.0% 24.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 18.6% 0.0% 18.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 9.6% 0.0% 9.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 8.3% 0.0% 8.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 1.9% 1.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 99.3 0.0
2nd Round 13.1% 0.1 86.9 13.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0