Ivy League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
107 Princeton 33.8%   13   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 7 10 - 4 +4.4      +4.1 71 +0.2 160 69.5 177 +13.3 28 0.0 1
110 Yale 30.2%   1 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 9 10 - 4 +3.9      +2.9 95 +1.0 138 70.1 161 -2.2 232 0.0 1
182 Columbia 8.8%   4 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 9 7 - 7 -1.2      +3.1 93 -4.2 321 70.3 148 +16.2 17 0.0 1
183 Cornell 9.4%   1 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 12 7 - 7 -1.2      +1.9 124 -3.1 268 77.6 27 +1.9 155 0.0 1
199 Brown 7.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 14 7 - 7 -2.3      -1.5 212 -0.7 195 67.6 234 -19.1 354 0.0 1
208 Penn 6.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 14 6 - 8 -2.7      +1.3 142 -4.0 309 64.4 318 -4.3 262 0.0 1
236 Harvard 4.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 16 6 - 8 -3.4      -2.8 263 -0.7 192 69.4 178 -8.0 301 0.0 1
329 Dartmouth 0.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 6 - 19 3 - 11 -9.6      -6.1 335 -3.5 290 64.3 320 -10.4 318 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Princeton 2.3 42.6 24.4 13.6 8.6 5.4 3.3 1.7 0.5
Yale 2.4 39.2 24.8 14.9 9.4 5.9 3.3 1.9 0.5
Columbia 4.1 10.4 14.4 16.9 16.7 15.2 12.7 9.5 4.2
Cornell 4.1 11.2 14.3 16.3 16.0 14.5 12.9 9.9 4.8
Brown 4.5 7.9 12.0 14.3 15.4 15.9 15.2 12.5 6.8
Penn 4.7 6.9 10.4 13.5 15.5 16.2 16.0 14.2 7.4
Harvard 4.9 5.1 8.4 12.0 14.4 16.2 18.0 16.8 9.1
Dartmouth 6.9 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.5 7.5 12.5 22.0 48.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Princeton 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.7 7.5 11.0 14.2 17.0 16.5 13.2 8.4 3.0
Yale 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.2 8.4 11.9 15.2 16.8 15.9 12.3 7.0 2.6
Columbia 7 - 7 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.3 7.7 10.8 14.3 15.4 14.7 12.4 8.9 5.3 2.6 0.8 0.2
Cornell 7 - 7 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.7 7.8 11.2 13.7 14.6 13.9 12.3 9.0 5.6 2.7 1.0 0.2
Brown 7 - 7 0.2 1.3 3.4 6.3 9.7 13.1 14.7 14.7 12.8 10.5 6.9 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1
Penn 6 - 8 0.3 1.5 3.8 7.0 11.1 13.4 15.1 14.9 12.4 9.2 6.3 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
Harvard 6 - 8 0.4 1.8 4.7 8.7 12.6 15.0 15.3 14.1 11.3 7.8 4.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
Dartmouth 3 - 11 7.5 15.1 18.3 18.0 14.8 10.8 7.1 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Princeton 42.6% 30.3 9.9 2.0 0.3 0.1
Yale 39.2% 27.4 9.5 2.0 0.3 0.1
Columbia 10.4% 5.7 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
Cornell 11.2% 6.2 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Brown 7.9% 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Penn 6.9% 3.6 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Harvard 5.1% 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Dartmouth 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Princeton 33.8% 33.0% 0.7% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 3.8 13.0 10.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 66.2 1.1%
Yale 30.2% 30.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 7.6 9.7 6.6 3.1 0.7 69.8 0.2%
Columbia 8.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.5 2.2 0.7 0.0 91.2 0.0%
Cornell 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 2.8 2.1 0.6 90.6 0.0%
Brown 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.2 92.7 0.0%
Penn 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.2 93.6 0.0%
Harvard 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.5 95.4 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Princeton 33.8% 0.5% 33.5% 6.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Yale 30.2% 0.4% 30.1% 5.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 8.8% 0.0% 8.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 9.4% 0.2% 9.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 7.3% 1.2% 6.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 6.4% 0.6% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 4.6% 0.9% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.1 0.6
2nd Round 14.6% 0.1 85.4 14.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0