West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Gonzaga 96.3%   7   21 - 7 12 - 3 23 - 8 14 - 4 +18.4      +11.9 8 +6.4 36 73.3 57 +11.9 46 +10.5 3
30 St. Mary's 98.3%   6   23 - 4 14 - 1 25 - 5 16 - 2 +14.7      +5.9 49 +8.8 14 58.9 359 +15.0 28 +20.2 1
60 Santa Clara 12.4%   18 - 10 10 - 5 20 - 11 12 - 6 +9.7      +5.8 52 +3.9 71 70.7 115 +7.0 79 +8.4 4
69 San Francisco 8.5%   21 - 7 12 - 4 22 - 8 13 - 5 +8.1      +3.1 91 +5.1 57 68.3 178 +10.1 57 +11.4 2
87 Oregon St. 1.7%   18 - 9 9 - 6 20 - 10 11 - 7 +6.4      +6.2 45 +0.2 170 62.1 332 +6.2 85 +5.7 5
107 Washington St. 0.3%   16 - 12 6 - 9 18 - 13 8 - 10 +3.6      +2.9 95 +0.7 156 73.2 58 +5.5 89 -0.2 8
169 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   14 - 13 7 - 9 15 - 14 8 - 10 -0.4      -2.6 244 +2.2 104 67.1 206 +2.1 135 +0.9 6
226 Pepperdine 0.0%   9 - 18 4 - 11 10 - 20 5 - 13 -3.5      -1.5 216 -2.1 231 72.4 71 -6.2 271 -5.5 10
277 Pacific 0.0%   7 - 21 4 - 12 8 - 22 5 - 13 -6.5      -3.1 260 -3.3 273 66.2 232 -7.3 289 -5.2 9
284 Portland 0.0%   8 - 18 5 - 10 9 - 20 6 - 12 -6.9      -1.2 209 -5.7 331 70.3 125 -4.9 244 0.0 7
314 San Diego 0.0%   3 - 23 1 - 14 4 - 26 2 - 16 -9.1      -5.8 323 -3.3 272 75.4 29 -14.5 351 -14.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Gonzaga 2.0 10.8 82.0 5.7 1.6
St. Mary's 1.0 99.3 0.7
Santa Clara 3.6 5.8 33.5 56.7 4.1
San Francisco 2.9 0.2 20.7 72.0 7.2
Oregon St. 4.7 4.7 19.2 76.1
Washington St. 6.3 1.1 74.5 22.0 2.4 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6.4 0.3 64.7 33.4 1.7
Pepperdine 8.7 2.9 2.9 27.9 48.9 17.4
Pacific 9.2 0.1 12.5 50.6 36.8
Portland 7.8 8.1 15.3 63.6 11.9 1.2
San Diego 11.0 0.1 0.2 99.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 14 - 4 2.5 16.0 41.7 39.8
St. Mary's 16 - 2 1.5 17.9 60.2 20.4
Santa Clara 12 - 6 3.4 30.1 49.1 17.4
San Francisco 13 - 5 42.1 46.3 11.6
Oregon St. 11 - 7 4.6 40.5 47.6 7.4
Washington St. 8 - 10 1.9 23.2 50.7 24.3
Loyola Marymount 8 - 10 24.7 66.1 9.2
Pepperdine 5 - 13 23.5 43.9 27.3 5.4
Pacific 5 - 13 33.8 59.6 6.6
Portland 6 - 12 18.2 39.8 33.1 8.9
San Diego 2 - 16 39.2 50.5 9.7 0.6




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 10.8% 0.7 9.9 0.1
St. Mary's 99.3% 89.2 10.0 0.1
Santa Clara
San Francisco 0.2% 0.0 0.1
Oregon St.
Washington St.
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
Pacific
Portland
San Diego


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 96.3% 58.4% 37.9% 7   0.2 1.7 6.6 10.7 14.1 16.8 19.6 14.8 9.6 2.2 0.0 3.8 91.0%
St. Mary's 98.3% 29.5% 68.9% 6   0.1 0.6 3.5 8.8 16.8 24.9 23.5 14.1 5.2 0.9 0.1 1.7 97.6%
Santa Clara 12.4% 5.9% 6.6% 0.1 0.5 2.7 8.3 0.8 87.6 7.0%
San Francisco 8.5% 4.6% 4.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.8 1.2 91.5 4.1%
Oregon St. 1.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1 1.2 0.4 98.3 0.3%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 96.3% 1.6% 95.8% 71.6% 33.9% 17.5% 8.6% 3.4% 1.4%
St. Mary's 98.3% 0.0% 98.3% 66.1% 25.7% 8.8% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Santa Clara 12.4% 5.6% 9.4% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 8.5% 3.6% 6.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 1.7% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 2.8 77.5 18.9 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 2.1 3.4 82.0 14.3 0.3
2nd Round 92.2% 1.4 7.8 43.6 47.1 1.5
Sweet Sixteen 52.2% 0.6 47.8 44.0 8.2 0.0
Elite Eight 25.3% 0.3 74.8 24.0 1.2 0.0
Final Four 11.7% 0.1 88.3 11.5 0.2
Final Game 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5
Champion 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7