West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 99.8%   1   5 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 2 17 - 1 +22.1      +14.6 1 +7.5 12 72.2 95 +22.2 4 0.0 1
43 St. Mary's 45.9%   11   4 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +11.0      +7.5 25 +3.4 80 61.2 353 +16.2 17 0.0 1
57 San Francisco 27.4%   4 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +9.1      +4.5 63 +4.6 57 69.6 170 +13.9 27 0.0 1
79 Washington St. 11.5%   4 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +7.2      +3.8 74 +3.4 81 73.0 81 +9.1 58 0.0 1
96 Oregon St. 4.8%   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 8 +5.2      +1.5 130 +3.7 74 63.6 324 +5.1 111 0.0 1
97 Santa Clara 3.3%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 +5.2      +4.3 64 +0.9 141 72.0 101 -0.2 190 0.0 1
154 Loyola Marymount 0.4%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 +0.4      +0.2 172 +0.2 162 63.2 330 -6.3 273 0.0 1
248 Pepperdine 0.0%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 13 -4.4      -1.2 206 -3.2 276 68.4 206 -6.0 268 0.0 1
289 Portland 0.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 19 4 - 14 -6.7      -3.6 277 -3.2 277 68.7 194 -2.0 213 0.0 1
291 Pacific 0.0%   1 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 22 4 - 14 -6.8      -4.2 294 -2.7 260 70.7 134 -8.2 289 0.0 1
298 San Diego 0.0%   1 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 22 4 - 14 -7.3      -5.6 329 -1.7 230 76.0 47 -12.9 326 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Gonzaga 1.1 90.9 7.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 3.0 8.7 38.0 22.7 13.8 8.6 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 3.6 4.7 26.4 23.6 17.8 12.6 8.2 4.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 4.0 2.6 18.4 21.7 20.8 16.7 11.1 5.5 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1
Oregon St. 4.7 1.6 12.3 16.4 18.9 18.8 14.9 9.5 4.6 1.9 0.9 0.2
Santa Clara 5.0 0.9 9.5 14.0 16.5 18.3 17.9 13.1 6.3 2.5 0.9 0.2
Loyola Marymount 6.4 0.2 3.1 5.8 9.5 13.2 18.2 20.4 14.0 8.5 4.8 2.3
Pepperdine 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.1 8.3 15.3 22.2 20.5 16.0 10.6
Portland 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.7 9.7 16.6 21.1 22.8 21.8
Pacific 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.8 9.8 16.9 21.2 23.0 20.8
San Diego 9.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.4 9.4 16.0 20.8 23.0 23.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.9 9.3 19.8 32.2 32.9
St. Mary's 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.7 8.1 11.9 15.4 17.4 16.3 12.1 6.8 2.4 0.4
San Francisco 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.8 7.8 11.6 15.0 16.5 15.5 12.0 7.7 3.5 1.0 0.1
Washington St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.4 10.9 14.5 16.6 16.4 13.6 8.7 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.0
Oregon St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.7 6.5 10.2 13.0 15.6 15.6 13.1 9.4 5.7 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Santa Clara 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.2 8.5 12.5 14.5 15.8 14.1 11.3 7.4 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.2 8.6 11.3 13.9 15.0 13.7 11.1 7.7 5.1 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 5 - 13 0.6 2.7 6.3 11.0 15.0 16.7 15.7 12.7 9.0 5.4 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 4 - 14 2.1 6.7 12.1 16.3 17.5 15.7 11.9 8.1 5.0 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pacific 4 - 14 1.9 6.2 11.9 16.4 17.5 15.8 12.3 8.4 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 4 - 14 2.2 7.1 12.7 16.9 17.2 15.2 11.5 8.0 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 90.9% 82.6 7.7 0.6 0.0
St. Mary's 8.7% 4.3 4.0 0.4 0.0
San Francisco 4.7% 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.0
Washington St. 2.6% 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0
Oregon St. 1.6% 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Santa Clara 0.9% 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Portland
Pacific
San Diego


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.8% 76.5% 23.3% 1   40.2 27.7 13.0 8.4 4.2 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.1%
St. Mary's 45.9% 9.8% 36.0% 11   0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.6 4.1 5.8 8.1 12.0 1.5 0.0 54.1 40.0%
San Francisco 27.4% 6.1% 21.4% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.5 5.6 8.9 1.4 0.0 72.6 22.7%
Washington St. 11.5% 3.5% 8.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.2 4.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 88.5 8.3%
Oregon St. 4.8% 2.1% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.2 2.8%
Santa Clara 3.3% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7 1.7%
Loyola Marymount 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.1%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 99.8% 0.1% 99.7% 95.4% 75.7% 54.3% 36.5% 23.6% 14.9%
St. Mary's 45.9% 10.5% 40.9% 22.9% 8.7% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
San Francisco 27.4% 7.8% 23.7% 11.9% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Washington St. 11.5% 3.7% 9.7% 4.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 4.8% 1.4% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 3.3% 0.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 27.9 52.6 18.0 1.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 34.0 51.6 13.6 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 97.6% 1.4 2.4 61.6 32.7 3.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 80.0% 0.9 20.0 69.9 9.8 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 57.3% 0.6 42.7 54.8 2.5 0.0
Final Four 38.0% 0.4 62.0 37.5 0.5 0.0
Final Game 24.2% 0.2 75.8 24.2 0.1
Champion 15.2% 0.2 84.8 15.2